| 1. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(author)
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Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
- 2020
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In: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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| 2. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(author)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 3. |
- Singh, K. P., et al.
(author)
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Clinical standards for the management of adverse effects during treatment for TB
- 2023
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In: The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. - : International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. - 1027-3719 .- 1815-7920. ; 27:7, s. 506-519
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Adverse effects (AE) to TB treatment cause morbidity, mortality and treatment interruption. The aim of these clinical standards is to encourage best practise for the diagnosis and management of AE.METHODS: 65/81 invited experts participated in a Delphi process using a 5-point Likert scale to score draft standards.RESULTS: We identified eight clinical standards. Each person commencing treatment for TB should: Standard 1, be counselled regarding AE before and during treatment; Standard 2, be evaluated for factors that might increase AE risk with regular review to actively identify and manage these; Standard 3, when AE occur, carefully assessed and possible allergic or hypersensitiv-ity reactions considered; Standard 4, receive appropriate care to minimise morbidity and mortality associated with AE; Standard 5, be restarted on TB drugs after a serious AE according to a standardised protocol that includes active drug safety monitoring. In addition: Standard 6, healthcare workers should be trained on AE including how to counsel people undertaking TB treatment, as well as active AE monitoring and management; Standard 7, there should be active AE monitoring and reporting for all new TB drugs and regimens; and Standard 8, knowledge gaps identified from active AE monitoring should be systematically addressed through clinical research.CONCLUSION: These standards provide a person -centred, consensus-based approach to minimise the impact of AE TB treatment.
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| 4. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(author)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
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In: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Wang, Anqi, et al.
(author)
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Characterizing prostate cancer risk through multi-ancestry genome-wide discovery of 187 novel risk variants
- 2023
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Nature. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 55:12, s. 2065-2074
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The transferability and clinical value of genetic risk scores (GRSs) across populations remain limited due to an imbalance in genetic studies across ancestrally diverse populations. Here we conducted a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study of 156,319 prostate cancer cases and 788,443 controls of European, African, Asian and Hispanic men, reflecting a 57% increase in the number of non-European cases over previous prostate cancer genome-wide association studies. We identified 187 novel risk variants for prostate cancer, increasing the total number of risk variants to 451. An externally replicated multi-ancestry GRS was associated with risk that ranged from 1.8 (per standard deviation) in African ancestry men to 2.2 in European ancestry men. The GRS was associated with a greater risk of aggressive versus non-aggressive disease in men of African ancestry (P = 0.03). Our study presents novel prostate cancer susceptibility loci and a GRS with effective risk stratification across ancestry groups.
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| 7. |
- Alffenaar, J. W. C., et al.
(author)
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Clinical standards for the dosing and management of TB drugs
- 2022
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In: The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. - Paris, France : International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease. - 1027-3719 .- 1815-7920. ; 26:6, s. 483-
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Background: Optimal drug dosing is important to ensure adequate response to treatment, prevent development of drug resistance and reduce drug toxicity. The aim of these clinical standards is to provide guidance on 'best practice' for dosing and management of TB drugs.Methods: A panel of 57 global experts in the fields of microbiology, pharmacology and TB care were identified; 51 participated in a Delphi process. A 5-point Likert scale was used to score draft standards. The final document represents the broad consensus and was approved by all participants.Results: Six clinical standards were defined: Standard 1, defining the most appropriate initial dose for TB treatment; Standard 2, identifying patients who may be at risk of sub-optimal drug exposure; Standard 3, identifying patients at risk of developing drug-related toxicity and how best to manage this risk; Standard 4, identifying patients who can benefit from therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM); Standard 5, highlighting education and counselling that should be provided to people initiating TB treatment; and Standard 6, providing essential education for healthcare professionals. In addition, consensus research priorities were identified.Conclusion: This is the first consensus-based Clinical Standards for the dosing and management of TB drugs to guide clinicians and programme managers in planning and implementation of locally appropriate measures for optimal person-centred treatment to improve patient care.
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| 8. |
- Conti, David, V, et al.
(author)
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Trans-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of prostate cancer identifies new susceptibility loci and informs genetic risk prediction
- 2021
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Nature. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 53:1, s. 65-75
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Prostate cancer is a highly heritable disease with large disparities in incidence rates across ancestry populations. We conducted a multiancestry meta-analysis of prostate cancer genome-wide association studies (107,247 cases and 127,006 controls) and identified 86 new genetic risk variants independently associated with prostate cancer risk, bringing the total to 269 known risk variants. The top genetic risk score (GRS) decile was associated with odds ratios that ranged from 5.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.84-5.29) for men of European ancestry to 3.74 (95% CI, 3.36-4.17) for men of African ancestry. Men of African ancestry were estimated to have a mean GRS that was 2.18-times higher (95% CI, 2.14-2.22), and men of East Asian ancestry 0.73-times lower (95% CI, 0.71-0.76), than men of European ancestry. These findings support the role of germline variation contributing to population differences in prostate cancer risk, with the GRS offering an approach for personalized risk prediction. A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies across different populations highlights new risk loci and provides a genetic risk score that can stratify prostate cancer risk across ancestries.
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| 9. |
- Chaplin, E., et al.
(author)
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Severe mental illness, common mental disorders, and neurodevelopmental conditions amongst 9088 lower court attendees in London, UK
- 2022
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In: Bmc Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-244X. ; 22:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Court Mental Health Liaison and Diversion Services (CMHLDS) have developed in some countries as a response to the over-representation of mental illness and other vulnerabilities amongst defendants presenting to criminal justice (or correctional) systems. This study examined the characteristics and rates of mental disorder of 9088 defendants referred to CMHLDS. Method The study analysed service level data, obtained from the National Health Service's mental health data set, to examine characteristics relating to gender, ethnicity and comorbidity of common mental and neurodevelopmental disorders at five CMHLDS across London between September 2015 and April 2017. Results The sample included 7186 males (79.1%) and 1719 females (18.9%), the gender of 183 (2%) were not recorded. Of those referred, 6616 (72.8%) presented with an identifiable mental disorder and 503 (5.5%) with a neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD). Significantly higher rates of schizophrenia were reported amongst Black defendants (n = 681; 37.2%) and Asian defendants (n = 315; 29%), while higher rates of depression were found amongst White defendants (n = 1007; 22.1%). Substance misuse was reported amongst 2813 defendants (31%), and alcohol misuse amongst 2111 (23.2%), with significantly high rates of substance and alcohol misuse amongst defendants presenting with schizophrenia or personality disorder. Conclusions This is one of the largest studies to examine mental health needs and vulnerabilities amongst defendants presenting to CMHLDS. It will enable an improved understanding of the required service designs and resources required to manage the healthcare pathways for people attending CMHLDS.
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| 10. |
- Naidu, R., et al.
(author)
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Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) : Current status and research needs
- 2020
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In: Environmental Technology & Innovation. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-1864. ; 19
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An expert workshop focusing on per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) was held in Adelaide, South Australia, Australia in September 2019 following the 8th International Contaminated Site Remediation Conference — CleanUp 2019. The workshop was organised by the Cooperative Research Centre for Contamination and Remediation of the Environment (CRC CARE) and was chaired by Professor Ravi Naidu, CEO and Managing Director of CRC CARE and Director of the Global Centre for Environmental Remediation at the University of Newcastle, NSW. The purpose of the workshop, which was attended by more than 50 experts in the field of contaminated land assessment and management, was to discuss the current state of play and research needs relating to PFAS contaminated sites. This paper provides a summary of the discussions and conclusions and lists actions and needs that the expert group identified as critical for pursuing successful PFAS management and remedy approaches.This paper is intended to capture the shared information, comments, and current thinking related to PFAS challenges and research needs as identified by the group of expert participants; the write up is not intended to be a complete dissertation on the science and work that has been carried out. With a fast-evolving subject and increased government and public attention on PFAS presence in the environment, the group was convened with the objective of providing value in contributing to solutions to the PFAS challenges that are faced both in Australia and internationally. The text contained herein provides references to observations and methods that the experts drew on in their discussions and in support of their commentary; documentation of the original references was not provided, and the reader should consult the scientific literature if further information and confirmation of observations is required. Following a brief on the background to PFAS challenges, the paper focusses on research gaps identified by experts with focus on Australian soils and groundwater including climatic patterns, an overview of PFAS research in Australia with emphasis on:RegulatoryAnalytical considerationsEcological and Human Health RisksFate and TransportRemediation and Risk Management.
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