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- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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- Franchini, Paolo, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term experimental hybridisation results in the evolution of a new sex chromosome in swordtail fish
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The remarkable diversity of sex determination mechanisms known in fish may be fuelled by exceptionally high rates of sex chromosome turnovers or transitions. However, the evolutionary causes and genomic mechanisms underlying this variation and instability are yet to be understood. Here we report on an over 30-year evolutionary experiment in which we tested the genomic consequences of hybridisation and selection between two Xiphophorus fish species with different sex chromosome systems. We find that introgression and imposing selection for pigmentation phenotypes results in the retention of an unexpectedly large maternally derived genomic region. During the hybridisation process, the sex-determining region of the X chromosome from one parental species was translocated to an autosome in the hybrids leading to the evolution of a new sex chromosome. Our results highlight the complexity of factors contributing to patterns observed in hybrid genomes, and we experimentally demonstrate that hybridisation can catalyze rapid evolution of a new sex chromosome.
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- Myers, Regina M., et al.
(författare)
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Long-Term Outcomes Among 2-Year Survivors of Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Hodgkin and Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma
- 2018
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Ingår i: Cancer. - : WILEY. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 124:4, s. 816-825
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT) is a standard therapy for relapsed classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL); however, long-term outcomes are not well described.METHODS: This study analyzed survival, nonrelapse mortality, late effects, and subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in 1617 patients who survived progression-free for >= 2 years after auto-HCT for cHL or DLBCL between 1990 and 2008. The median age at auto-HCT was 40 years; the median follow-up was 10.6 years.RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival rate was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87%-92%) for patients with cHL and 89% (95% CI, 87%-91%) for patients with DLBCL. The risk of late mortality in comparison with the general population was 9.6-fold higher for patients with cHL (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 9.6) and 3.4-fold higher for patients with DLBCL (SMR, 3.4). Relapse accounted for 44% of late deaths. At least 1 late effect was reported for 9% of the patients. A total of 105 SMNs were confirmed: 44 in the cHL group and 61 in the DLBCL group. According to a multivariate analysis, older age, male sex, a Karnofsky score < 90, total body irradiation (TBI) exposure, and a higher number of lines of chemotherapy before auto-HCT were risk factors for overall mortality in cHL. Risk factors in DLBCL were older age and TBI exposure. A subanalysis of 798 adolescent and young adult patients mirrored the outcomes of the overall study population.CONCLUSIONS: Despite generally favorable outcomes, 2-year survivors of auto-HCT for cHL or DLBCL have an excess late-mortality risk in comparison with the general population and experience an assortment of late complications.
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- Radivoyevitch, Tomas, et al.
(författare)
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Risk of acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome after autotransplants for lymphomas and plasma cell myeloma
- 2018
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Ingår i: Leukemia Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0145-2126 .- 1873-5835. ; 74, s. 130-136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Exposures to DNA-damaging drugs and ionizing radiations increase risks of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS).Methods: 9028 recipients of hematopoietic cell autotransplants (1995-2010) for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL; n=916), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; n=3546) and plasma cell myeloma (PCM; n=4566), reported to the CIBMTR, were analyzed for risk of subsequent AML or MDS.Results: 335 MDS/ AML cases were diagnosed posttransplant (3.7%). Variables associated with an increased risk for AML or MDS in multivariate analyses were: (1) conditioning with total body radiation versus chemotherapy alone for HL (HR=4.0; 95% confidence interval [1.4, 11.6]) and NHL (HR=2.5 [1.1, 2.5]); (2) >= 3 versus 1 line of chemotherapy for NHL (HR=1.9 [1.3, 2.8]); and (3) subjects with NHL transplanted in 2005-2010 versus 1995-1999 (HR=2.1 [1.5, 3.1]). Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data, we found risks for AML/ MDS in HL, NHL and PCM to be 5-10 times the background rate. In contrast, relative risks were 10-50 for AML and approximately 100 for MDS in the autotransplant cohort.Conclusions: There are substantial risks of AML and MDS after autotransplants for HL, NHL and PCM.
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- Svensson, Andreas, et al.
(författare)
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How consistent is my model with the data? : Information-theoretic model check
- 2018
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The choice of model class is fundamental in statistical learning and system identification, no matter whether the class is derived from physical principles or is a generic black-box. We develop a method to evaluate the specified model class by assessing its capability of reproducing data that is similar to the observed data record. This model check is based on the information-theoretic properties of models viewed as data generators and is applicable to e.g. sequential data and nonlinear dynamical models. The method can be understood as a specific two-sided posterior predictive test. We apply the information-theoretic model check to both synthetic and real data and compare it with a classical whiteness test.
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| 7. |
- Wågberg, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Regularized parametric system identification : a decision-theoretic formulation
- 2018
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Ingår i: 2018 Annual American Control Conference (ACC). - : IEEE. - 9781538654286 - 9781538654279 - 9781538654293 ; , s. 1895-1900
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Parametric prediction error methods constitute a classical approach to the identification of linear dynamic systems with excellent large-sample properties. A more recent regularized approach, inspired by machine learning and Bayesian methods, has also gained attention. Methods based on this approach estimate the system impulse response with excellent small-sample properties. In several applications, however, it is desirable to obtain a compact representation of the system in the form of a parametric model. By viewing the identification of such models as a decision, we develop a decision-theoretic formulation of the parametric system identification problem that bridges the gap between the classical and regularized approaches above. Using the output-error model class as an illustration, we show that this decision-theoretic approach leads to a regularized method that is robust to small sample-sizes as well as overparameterization.
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