| 1. |
- Sutinen, Martti, et al.
(författare)
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Web-Based Analytical Decision Support System
- 2010
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 2010 10th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications, ISDA'10. - : IEEE conference proceedings. - 9781424481347 - 9781424481354 ; , s. 575-579
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a web-application supporting structured decision modelling and analysis. The application allows for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, allowing for numerically imprecise and vague background probabilities, values, and criteria weights, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes. The web-application is based on a decision tool that has been used in a large number of different domains over the last 15 years, ranging from investment decision analysis for companies to public decision support for local governments.
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| 2. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Public Decision Support - Using a DSS to Increase Democratic Transparency
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems. - Sundsvall : Mittuniversitetet. - 1653-4360. ; 1:1, s. 3-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a case study in which a decision support method (ADL) was employed by a local government in order to guide and aid decisions on three complicated and politically infected issues which had remained unresolved for many years. The research inquiry was whether a well-defined and openly accessible method would aid a common understanding of the decision problems, and whether people would be able to accept a clearly motivated decision even if politically they preferred a different option. The ADL method has been used in several public sector projects ranging from very large purchasing decisions to the selection of national policies, but this test case was novel in that it involved close inspection by the public. This case was also devised as a test of new methods for potential inclusion into normal practices. The post-case analysis shows mixed understanding of and belief in the method. The results raise issues concerning both the potential for decision support methods in a political context and the nature of political decision making.
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| 3. |
- Hansson, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies
- 2008
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 86:3, s. 465-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The resulting impact of disasters on society depends on the affected country's economic strength prior to the disaster. The larger the disaster and the smaller the economy, the more significant is the impact. This is clearest seen in developing countries, where weak economics become even weaker afterwards. Deliberate strategies for the sharing of losses from hazardous events may aid a country or a community in efficiently using scarce prevention and mitigation resources, thus being better prepared for the effects of a disaster. Nevertheless, many governments lack an adequate institutional system for applying cost effective and reliable technologies for disaster prevention, early warnings, and mitigation. Modelling by event analyses and strategy models is one way of planning ahead, but these models have so far not been linked together. An approach to this problem was taken during a large study in Hungary, the Tisza case study, where a number of policy strategies for spreading of flood loss were formulated. In these strategies, a set of parameters of particular interest were extracted from interviews with stakeholders in the region. However, the study was focused on emerging economies, and, in particular, on insurance strategies. The scope is now extended to become a functional framework also for developing countries. In general, they have a higher degree of vulnerability. The paper takes northern Vietnam as an example of a developing region. We identify important parameters and discuss their importance for flood strategy formulations. Based on the policy strategies in the Tisza case, we extract data from the strategies and propose a framework for loss spread in developing and emerging economics. The parameter set can straightforwardly be included in a simulation and decision model for policy formulation and evaluation, taking multiple stakeholders into account.
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| 4. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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A second-order-based decision tool for evaluating decisions under conditions of severe uncertainty
- 2020
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Ingår i: Knowledge-Based Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0950-7051 .- 1872-7409. ; 191
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The requirement to assign precise numerical values to model entities such as criteria weights, probabilities, and utilities is too strong in most real-life decision situations, and hence alternative representations and evaluation mechanisms are important to consider. In this paper, we discuss the DecideIT 3.0 state-of-the-art software decision tool and demonstrate its functionality using a real-life case. The tool is based on a belief mass interpretation of the decision information, where the components are imprecise by means of intervals and qualitative estimates, and we discuss how multiplicative and additive aggregations influence the resulting distribution over the expected values.
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| 5. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Second order effects in interval valued decision graph models
- 2005
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS 2005 - Recent Advances in Artifical Intelligence. - : AAAI Press. - 1577352343 ; , s. 728-733
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Second-order calculations may significantly increase a decision maker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. The results apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.
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| 6. |
- Brouwers, Lisa, 1967-, et al.
(författare)
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Multi-criteria decision-making of policy strategies with public-private re-insurance systems
- 2004
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Ingår i: Risk, Decision, and Policy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1357-5309 .- 1466-4534. ; 9:1, s. 23-45
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article describes an integrated flood catastrophe model as well as some results of a case study made in the Upper Tisza region in north-eastern Hungary: the Palad-Csecsei basin. The background data was provided through the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and complemented by interviews with different stakeholders in the region. Based on these data, for which a large degree of uncertainty is prevailing, we demonstrate how an implementation of a simulation and decision analytical model can provide insights into the effects of imposing different policy options for a flood risk management program in the region. We focus herein primarily on general options for designing a public-private insurance and reinsurance system for Hungary. Obviously, this is a multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder problem and cannot be solved using standard approaches. It should, however, be emphasised that the main purpose of this article is not to provide any definite recommendations, but rather to explore a set of policy packages that could gain a consensus among the stakeholders.
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| 7. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Computing Upper and Lower Bounds in Interval Decision Trees
- 2007
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Ingår i: European Journal of Operational Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0377-2217 .- 1872-6860. ; 181:2, s. 808-816
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents algorithms for computing optima in decision trees with imprecise probabilities and utilities. In tree models involving uncertainty expressed as intervals and/or relations, it is necessary for the evaluation to compute the upper and lower bounds of the expected values. Already in its simplest form, computing a maximum of expectancies leads to quadratic programming (QP) problems. Unfortunately, standard optimization methods based on QP (and BLP - bilinear programming) are too slow for the evaluation of decision trees in computer tools with interactive response times. Needless to say, the problems with computational complexity are even more emphasized in multi-linear programming (MLP) problems arising from multi-level decision trees. Since standard techniques are not particularly useful for these purposes, other, non-standard algorithms must be used. The algorithms presented here enable user interaction in decision tools and are equally applicable to all multi-linear programming problems sharing the same structure as a decision tree.
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| 8. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - : Elsevier BV. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. 387-407
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Value Differences using Second Order Distributions
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - : Elsevier. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 38:1, s. 81-97
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Most decision models for handling vague and imprecise information are unnecessarily restrictive since they do not admit for discrimination between different beliefs in different values. This is true for classical utility theory as well as for the various interval methods that have prevailed. To allow for more refined estimates, we suggest a framework designed for evaluating decision situations considering beliefs in sets of epistemically possible utility and probability functions, as well as relations between them. The various beliefs are expressed using different kinds of belief distributions. We show that the use of such distributions allows for representation principles not requiring too hard data aggregation, but still admitting efficient evaluation of decision situations.
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