| 1. |
- Ma, Yan, et al.
(author)
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Linking climate and infectious disease trends in the Northern/Arctic Region
- 2021
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 11:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recognition of climate-sensitive infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating health threats from climate change. Recent studies have reasoned about potential climate sensitivity of diseases in the Northern/Arctic Region, where climate change is particularly pronounced. By linking disease and climate data for this region, we here comprehensively quantify empirical climate-disease relationships. Results show significant relationships of borreliosis, leptospirosis, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), Puumala virus infection, cryptosporidiosis, and Q fever with climate variables related to temperature and freshwater conditions. These data-driven results are consistent with previous reasoning-based propositions of climate-sensitive infections as increasing threats for humans, with notable exceptions for TBE and leptospirosis. For the latter, the data imply decrease with increasing temperature and precipitation experienced in, and projected for, the Northern/Arctic Region. This study provides significant data-based underpinning for simplified empirical assessments of the risks of several infectious diseases under future climate change.
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| 2. |
- Page, Jessica, et al.
(author)
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A more complete accounting of greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in urban landscapes
- 2021
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In: Anthropocene. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-3054. ; 34
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding interactions between complex human and natural systems involved in urban carbon cycling is important when balancing the dual goals of urban development to accommodate a growing population, while also achieving urban carbon neutrality. This study develops a systems breakdown accounting method to assess the urban carbon cycle. The method facilitates greater understanding of the complex interactions within and between systems involved in this cycle, in order to identify ways in which humans can adapt their interactions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from urban regions. Testing the systems breakdown accounting method in Stockholm County, Sweden, we find that it provides new insights into the carbon interactions with urban green-blue areas in the region. Results show how Stockholm County can reduce its emissions and achieve its goal of local carbon net-neutrality, if the green areas protect its carbon sequestration potential and maintain it to offset projected remaining active emissions. Results also show that the inland surface waters and inner archipelago waters within Stockholm County are a considerable source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. A better understanding of these water emissions is necessary to formulate effective planning and policy measures that can reduce urban emissions. The insights gained from this study can also be applied in other regions. In particular, water bodies could play a significant role in the urban carbon cycle and using this knowledge for more complete carbon accounting, and a better understanding of green-blue interactions could help to reduce net urban emissions in many places.
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| 3. |
- Frampton, Andrew, et al.
(author)
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Permafrost degradation and subsurface-flow changes caused by surface warming trends
- 2012
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In: Hydrogeology Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1431-2174 .- 1435-0157. ; 21:1, s. 271-280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Change dynamics of permafrost thaw, andassociated changes in subsurface flow and seepage into surface water, are analysed for different warming trends in soil temperature at the ground surface with a three-phase two-component flow system coupled to heat transport. Changes in annual, seasonal and extreme flows are analysed for three warming-temperature trends, representing simplified climate change scenarios. The results support previous studies of reduced temporal variability of groundwater flow across all investigated trends. Decreased intra-annual flow variability may thus serve asan early indicator of permafrost degradation before longer term changes in mean flows are notable. This is advantageous since hydrological data are considerably easier to obtain, may be available in longer time series, and generally reflect larger-scale conditions than direct permafrost observations. The results further show that permafrost degradation first leads to increasing water discharge, which then decreases as the permafrost degradation progresses further to total thaw. The most pronounced changes occur for minimum annual flows. The configuration considered represents subsurface discharge from a generic heterogeneous soil-type domain.
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| 4. |
- Khazaei, Bahram, et al.
(author)
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Climatic or regionally induced by humans? Tracing hydro-climatic and land-use changes to better understand the Lake Urmia tragedy
- 2019
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 569, s. 203-217
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Lake Urmia-a shallow endemic hypersaline lake in northwest Iran-has undergone a dramatic decline in its water level (WL), by about 8 m, since 1995. The primary cause of the WL decline in Lake Urmia has been debated in the scientific literature, regarding whether it has been predominantly driven by atmospheric climate change or by human activities in the watershed landscape. Using available climate, hydrological, and vegetation data for the period 1981-2015, this study analyzes and aims to explain the lake desiccation based on other observed hydro-climatic and vegetation changes in the Lake Urmia watershed and classical exploratory statistical methods. The analysis accounts for the relationships between atmospheric climate change (precipitation P, temperature T), and hydrological (soil moisture SM, and WL) and vegetation cover (VC; including agricultural crops and other vegetation) changes in the landscape. Results show that P, T, and SM changes cannot explain the sharp decline in lake WL since 2000. Instead, the agricultural increase of VC in the watershed correlates well with the lake WL change, indicating this human-driven VC and associated irrigation expansion as the dominant human driver of the Lake Urmia desiccation. Specifically, the greater transpiration from the expanded and increasingly irrigated agricultural crops implies increased total evapotranspiration and associated consumptive use of water (inherently related to the irrigation and water diversion and storage developments in the watershed). Thereby the runoff from the watershed into the lake has decreased, and the remaining smaller inflow to the lake has been insufficient for keeping up the previous lake WL, causing the observed WL drop to current conditions.
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| 5. |
- Jaramillo, Fernando, 1977-
(author)
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Changes in the Freshwater System : Distinguishing Climate and Landscape Drivers
- 2015
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Freshwater is a vital resource that circulates between the atmosphere, the land and the sea. Understanding and quantifying changes to the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, runoff and water storage change in the landscape are required for assessing changes to freshwater availability. However, the partitioning processes and their changes are complex due to multiple change drivers and effects. This thesis investigates and aims to identify and separate the effects of atmospheric climate change and various landscape drivers on long-term freshwater change. This is done based on hydroclimatic, land-use and water-use data from the beginning of the twentieth century up to present times and across different regions and scales, from catchment to global. The analyzed landscape drivers include historic developments of irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture and flow regulation. The thesis uses and develops further a data-motivated approach to interpret available hydroclimatic and landscape data for identification of water change drivers and effects, expanding the approach application from local to continental and global scales. Based on this approach development, the thesis identifies hydroclimatic change signals of landscape drivers against the background of multiple coexisting drivers influencing worldwide freshwater change, within and among hydrological basins. Globally, landscape drivers are needed to explain more than 70% of the historic hydroclimatic changes, of which a considerable proportion may be directly human-driven. These landscape- and human-driven water changes need to be considered and accounted for also in modeling and projection of changes to the freshwater system on land.
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| 6. |
- Jaramillo, Fernando, 1977-, et al.
(author)
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Developing water change spectra and distinguishingchange drivers worldwide
- 2014
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 41:23, s. 8377-8386
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The separate and combined effects of different drivers of change to water fluxes and resources onland (CWOL) remain difficult to distinguish and largely unknown, particularly at a global scale. Our studyanalyzes CWOL during the period 1901–2008, based on available hydroclimatic data for up to 859 hydrologicalbasins. We develop a worldwide spectrum of change magnitudes and directions in Budyko space, from whichwe distinguish climate and landscape drivers of CWOL. We find that landscape drivers (e.g., changes in landand water use, water storage or water phase) are needed to explain CWOL in at least 74% of the basins studied.The water change effects of such landscape drivers are mostly opposite to those of atmospheric climatechange. The change spectrum approach we developed provides a useful tool for quantifying and visualizingCWOL and for distinguishing the effects of climate and landscape drivers across regions and scales.
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| 7. |
- Mård Karlsson, Johanna, 1979-, et al.
(author)
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Opportunities and limitations to detect climate-related regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems through eco-hydrological monitoring
- 2011
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 6:1, s. 014015-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study has identified and mapped the occurrences of three different types of climate-driven and hydrologically mediated regime shifts in inland Arctic ecosystems: (i) from tundra to shrubland or forest, (ii) from terrestrial ecosystems to thermokarst lakes and wetlands, and (iii) from thermokarst lakes and wetlands to terrestrial ecosystems. The area coverage of these shifts is compared to that of hydrological and hydrochemical monitoring relevant to their possible detection. Hotspot areas are identified within the Yukon, Mackenzie, Barents/Norwegian Sea and Ob river basins, where systematic water monitoring overlaps with ecological monitoring and observed ecosystem regime shift occurrences, providing opportunities for linked eco-hydrological investigations that can improve our regime shift understanding, and detection and prediction capabilities. Overall, most of the total areal extent of shifts from tundra to shrubland and from terrestrial to aquatic regimes is in hydrologically and hydrochemically unmonitored areas. For shifts from aquatic to terrestrial regimes, related water and waterborne nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes are relatively well monitored, while waterborne carbon fluxes are unmonitored. There is a further large spatial mismatch between the coverage of hydrological and that of ecological monitoring, implying a need for more coordinated monitoring efforts to detect the waterborne mediation and propagation of changes and impacts associated with Arctic ecological regime shifts.
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