| 1. |
- Reynolds, Eduardo, et al.
(författare)
-
Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - Oxon : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:5, s. 842-853
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Lack of discharge data for model calibration is challenging for flood prediction in ungauged basins. Since establishment and maintenance of a permanent discharge station is resource demanding, a possible remedy could be to measure discharge only for a few events. We tested the hypothesis that a few flood-event hydrographs in a tropical basin would be sufficient to calibrate a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model, namely the HBV model, and proposed a new event-based calibration method to adequately predict floods. Parameter sets were chosen based on calibration of different scenarios of data availability, and their ability to predict floods was assessed. Compared to not having any discharge data, flood predictions improved already when one event was used for calibration. The results further suggest that two to four events for calibration may considerably improve flood predictions with regard to accuracy and uncertainty reduction, whereas adding more events beyond this resulted in small performance gains.
|
|
| 2. |
- Viviroli, D., et al.
(författare)
-
On the risk of obtaining misleading results by pooling streamflow data for trend analyses
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 48, s. W05601-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Floods have broad impacts on nature, society, and the economy. The frequency and intensity of flood events are generally believed to increase with the anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation. Trend analyses are important tools to quantify these changes, but often, they provide inconclusive results, partly because of the limited data availability. One way to overcome this limitation is to pool data from different gauging stations. However, pooling data from different stations may lead to misleading results. For example, using pooled flood data Allamano et al. (2009a) found a considerable increase of flooding risks for Switzerland. Here we demonstrate that the previous finding of increased flooding risks was an artifact of the pooling of stations and the fact that the longer time series came from larger catchments, which tend to have lower values for specific peak flows than smaller catchments. Our results demonstrate the risk of obtaining incorrect statistical conclusions when statistical analyses and data selection are not considered with due care.
|
|
| 3. |
- Fischer, Benjamin M. C., et al.
(författare)
-
Assessing the Sampling Quality of a Low-Tech Low-Budget Volume-Based Rainfall Sampler for Stable Isotope Analysis
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Earth Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-6463. ; 7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To better understand the small-scale variability of rainfall and its isotopic composition it is advantageous to utilize rain samplers which are at the same time low-cost, low-tech, robust, and precise with respect to the collected rainwater isotopic composition. We assessed whether a self-built version of the Kennedy sampler is able to collect rainwater consistently without mixing with antecedent collected water. We called the self-built sampler made from honey jars and silicon tubing the Zurich sequential sampler. Two laboratory experiments show that high rainfall intensities can be sampled and that the volume of water in a water sample originating from a different bottle was generally less than 1 ml. Rainwater was collected in 5 mm increments for stable isotope analysis using three (year 2011) and five (years 2015 and 2016) rain samplers in Zurich (Switzerland) during eleven rainfall events. The standard deviation of the total rainfall amounts between the different rain gauges was <1%. The standard deviation of delta O-18 and delta H-2 among the different sequential sampler bottles filled at the same time was generally <0.3 parts per thousand for delta O-18 and <2 parts per thousand for delta H-2 (8 out of 11 events). Larger standard deviations could be explained by leaking bottle(s) with subsequent mixing of water with different isotopic composition of at least one out of the five samplers. Our assessment shows that low-cost, low-tech rain samplers, when well maintained, can be used to collect sequential samples of rainfall for stable isotope analysis and are therefore suitable to study the spatio-temporal variability of the isotopic composition of rainfall.
|
|
| 4. |
- Seibert, Jan, et al.
(författare)
-
Linking soil- and stream-water chemistry based on a Riparian Flow-Concentration Integration Model
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Hydrology and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1607-7938 .- 1027-5606. ; 13:12, s. 2287-2297
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The riparian zone, the last few metres of soil through which water flows before entering a gaining stream, has been identified as a first order control on key aspects of stream water chemistry dynamics. We propose that the distribution of lateral flow of water across the vertical profile of soil water chemistry in the riparian zone provides a conceptual explanation of how this control functions in catchments where matrix flow predominates. This paper presents a mathematical implementation of this concept as well as the model assumptions. We also present an analytical solution, which provides a physical basis for the commonly used power-law flow-load equation. This approach quantifies the concept of riparian control on stream-water chemistry providing a basis for testing the concept of riparian control. By backward calculation of soil-water-chemistry profiles, and comparing those with observed profiles we demonstrate that the simple juxtaposition of the vertical profiles of water flux and soil water chemistry provides a plausible explanation for observed variations in stream water chemistry of several major stream components such as Total Organic Carbon (TOC), magnesium, calcium and chloride. The "static" implementation of the model structure presented here provides a basis for further development to account for seasonal influences and hydrological hysteresis in the representation of hyporheic, riparian, and hillslope processes.
|
|
| 5. |
- Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
-
Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 37:9-10, s. 2087-2105
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions.
|
|
| 6. |
- Grabs, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
-
Riparian zone hydrology and soil water total organic carbon (TOC) : implications for spatial variability and upscaling of lateral riparian TOC exports
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 9:10, s. 3901-3916
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater flowing from hillslopes through riparian (near-stream) soils often undergoes chemical transformations that can substantially influence stream water chemistry. We used landscape analysis to predict total organic carbon (TOC) concentration profiles and groundwater levels measured in the riparian zone (RZ) of a 67 km2 catchment in Sweden. TOC exported laterally from 13 riparian soil profiles was then estimated based on the riparian flow-concentration integration model (RIM). Much of the observed spatial variability of riparian TOC concentrations in this system could be predicted from groundwater levels and the topographic wetness index (TWI). Organic riparian peat soils in forested areas emerged as hotspots exporting large amounts of TOC. These TOC fluxes were subject to considerable temporal variations caused by a combination of variable flow conditions and changing soil water TOC concentrations. Mineral riparian gley soils, on the other hand, were related to rather small TOC export rates and were characterized by relatively time-invariant TOC concentration profiles. Organic and mineral soils in RZs constitute a heterogeneous landscape mosaic that potentially controls much of the spatial variability of stream water TOC. We developed an empirical regression model based on the TWI to move beyond the plot scale and to predict spatially variable riparian TOC concentration profiles for RZs underlain by glacial till.
|
|
| 7. |
- Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
-
Is bias correction of regional climate model (RCM) simulations possible for non-stationary conditions?
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 17:12, s. 5061-5077
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In hydrological climate-change impact studies, regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used to transfer large-scale global climate model (GCM) data to smaller scales and to provide more detailed regional information. Due to systematic and random model errors, however, RCM simulations often show considerable deviations from observations. This has led to the development of a number of correction approaches that rely on the assumption that RCM errors do not change over time. It is in principle not possible to test whether this underlying assumption of error stationarity is actually fulfilled for future climate conditions. In this study, however, we demonstrate that it is possible to evaluate how well correction methods perform for conditions different from those used for calibration with the relatively simple differential split-sample test.
|
|
| 8. |
- Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(författare)
-
Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale : A Review of Recent Modeling Strategies
- 2010
-
Ingår i: Geography Compass. - : Wiley. - 1749-8198. ; 4:7, s. 834-860
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article reviews recent applications of regional climate model (RCM) output for hydrological impact studies. Traditionally, simulations of global climate models (GCMs) have been the basis of impact studies in hydrology. Progress in regional climate modeling has recently made the use of RCM data more attractive, although the application of RCM simulations is challenging due to often considerable biases. The main modeling strategies used in recent studies can be classified into (i) very simple constructed modeling chains with a single RCM (S-RCM approach) and (ii) highly complex and computing-power intensive model systems based on RCM ensembles (E-RCM approach). In the literature many examples for S-RCM can be found, while comprehensive E-RCM studies with consideration of several sources of uncertainties such as different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, GCMs, RCMs and hydrological models are less common. Based on a case study using control-run simulations of fourteen different RCMs for five Swedish catchments, the biases of and the variability between different RCMs are demonstrated. We provide a short overview of possible bias-correction methods and show that inter-RCM variability also has substantial consequences for hydrological impact studies in addition to other sources of uncertainties in the modeling chain. We propose that due to model bias and inter-model variability, the S-RCM approach is not advised and ensembles of RCM simulations (E-RCM) should be used. The application of bias-correction methods is recommended, although one should also be aware that the need for bias corrections adds significantly to uncertainties in modeling climate change impacts.
|
|
| 9. |
- Hakala, Kirsti, et al.
(författare)
-
Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Encyclopedia of Water. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 9781119300755 - 9781119300762
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydrological climate change impact modeling is a commonly used approach to quantify potential future changes in streamflow. In this article, we present an introduction to the main steps involved in the production of such streamflow projections. We review commonly used modeling approaches to quantify climate change impacts on water resources, describe the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections and how to characterize them, and discuss best practices. The supplementary material includes a guide to perform typical data processing tasks involved in the production of hydrological projections. We also provide material to support teaching activities related to hydrological climate change impact modeling. The goal of this article is to support studies on climate change impacts on hydrological systems by providing guidance on working with the climate-hydrology modeling chain.
|
|
| 10. |
- Lyon, Steve W., et al.
(författare)
-
Specific discharge variability in a boreal landscape
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 48, s. W08506-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Specific discharge variations within a mesoscale catchment were studied on the basis of three synoptic sampling campaigns. These were conducted during stable flow conditions within the Krycklan catchment study area in northern Sweden. During each campaign, about 80 individual locations were measured for discharge draining from catchment areas ranging between 0.12 and 67 km(2). These discharge samplings allowed for the comparison between years within a given season (September 2005 versus September 2008) and between seasons within a given year (May 2008 versus September 2008) of specific discharge across this boreal landscape. There was considerable variability in specific discharge across this landscape. The ratio of the interquartile range (IQR) defined as the difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles of the specific discharges to the median of the specific discharges ranged from 37% to 43%. Factor analysis was used to explore potential relations between landscape characteristics and the specific discharge observed for 55 of the individual locations that were measured in all three synoptic sampling campaigns. Percentage wet area (i.e., wetlands, mires, and lakes) and elevation were found to be directly related to the specific discharge during the drier September 2008 sampling while potential annual evaporation was found to be inversely related. There was less of a relationship determined during the wetter post spring flood May 2008 sampling and the late summer rewetted September 2005 sampling. These results indicate the ability of forests to "dry out" parts of the catchment over the summer months while wetlands "keep wet" other parts. To demonstrate the biogeochemical implications of such spatiotemporal variations in specific discharge, we estimate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports with available data for the May 2008 and September 2008 samplings using both the spatially variable observed specific discharges and the spatially constant catchment average values. The average absolute difference in DOC export for the various subcatchments between using a variable and using a constant specific discharge was 28% for the May 2008 sampling and 20% for the September 2008 sampling.
|
|
