| 1. |
- Trondman, Anna-Kari, et al.
(författare)
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Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling
- 2015
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 21:2, s. 676-697
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene [around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types [evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.
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| 2. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, et al.
(författare)
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Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP : sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation
- 2014
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 10:2, s. 661-680
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, similar to 6 and similar to 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At similar to 6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5-1 degrees C. At similar to 0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from -1 degrees C in south-western Europe to +1 degrees C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.
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| 3. |
- Matthes, Heidrun, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of high-resolution Arctic regional climate model projections to different implementations of land surface processes
- 2012
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 111:2, s. 197-214
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models.
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| 4. |
- Gaillard, Marie-José, 1953-, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 6, s. 483-499
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/landcover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs “grassland” and “agricultural land” at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.
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| 5. |
- Marquer, Laurent, et al.
(författare)
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Holocene changes in vegetation composition in northern Europe: why quantitative pollen-based vegetation reconstructions matter
- 2014
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 90, s. 199-216
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present pollen-based reconstructions of the spatio-temporal dynamics of northern European regional vegetation abundance through the Holocene. We apply the Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model using fossil pollen records from eighteen sites within five modern biomes in the region. The eighteen sites are classified into four time-trajectory types on the basis of principal components analysis of both the REVEALS-based vegetation estimates (RVs) and the pollen percentage (PPs). The four trajectory types are more clearly separated for RVs than PPs. Further, the timing of major Holocene shifts, rates of compositional change, and diversity indices (turnover and evenness) differ between RVs and PPs. The differences are due to the reduction by REVEALS of biases in fossil pollen assemblages caused by different basin size, and inter-taxonomic differences in pollen productivity and dispersal properties. For example, in comparison to the PPs, the RVs show an earlier increase in Corylus and Ulmus in the early-Holocene and a more pronounced increase in grassland and deforested areas since the mid-Holocene. The results suggest that the influence of deforestation and agricultural activities on plant composition and abundance from Neolithic times was stronger than previously inferred from PPs. Relative to PPs, RVs show a more rapid compositional change, a largest decrease in turnover, and less variable evenness in most of northern Europe since 5200 cal yr BP. All these changes are primarily related to the strong impact of human activities on the vegetation. This study demonstrates that RV-based estimates of diversity indices, timing of shifts, and rates of change in reconstructed vegetation provide new insights into the timing and magnitude of major human distribution on Holocene regional, vegetation, feature that are critical in the assessment of human impact on vegetation, land-cover, biodiversity, and climate in the past. (C) Elsevier Ltd.All tights reserved.
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| 6. |
- Gaillard, Marie-José, et al.
(författare)
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Causes of Regional Change : Land Cover
- 2015
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Ingår i: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319160054 - 9783319160061 ; , s. 453-477
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response over the last two centuries is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects and to the biogeochemical versus biogeophysical effects. Palaeoecological studies show that the major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the Baltic Sea basin occurred between 6000 and 3000/2500 cal year BP. The only modelling study of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in north-western Europe suggests that deforestation between 6000 and 200 cal year BP may have caused significant change in winter and summer temperature. There is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback. Several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes.
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| 7. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? : A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:7, s. 1507-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper studies the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago (2.5 ka), a period of rapid transitions across the European landscape. One global climate model was used to force two regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs used two land cover descriptions. The first was from a dynamical vegetation model representing potential land cover, and the second was from a land cover description reconstructed from pollen data by statistical interpolation. The two different land covers enable us to study the impact of land cover on climate conditions. Since the difference in landscape openness between potential and reconstructed land cover is mostly due to LULCC, this can be taken as a measure of early anthropogenic effects on climate. Since the sensitivity to LULCC is dependent on the choice of climate model, we also use two RCMs. The results show that the simulated 2.5 ka climate was warmer than the simulated pre-industrial (PI, 1850 CE) climate. The largest differences are seen in northern Europe, where the 2.5 ka climate is 2-4 degrees C warmer than the PI period. In summer, the difference between the simulated 2.5 ka and PI climates is smaller (0-3 degrees C), with the smallest differences in southern Europe. Differences in seasonal precipitation are mostly within +/- 10 %. In parts of northern Europe, the 2.5 ka climate is up to 30% wetter in winter than that of the PI climate. In summer there is a tendency for the 2.5 ka climate to be drier than the PI climate in the Mediterranean region. The results also suggest that LULCC at 2.5 ka impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Simulations including reconstructed LULCC (i.e. those using pollen-derived land cover descriptions) give up to 1 degrees C higher temperature in parts of northern Europe in winter and up to 1.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer than simulations with potential land cover. Although the results are model dependent, the relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic land cover changes that had occurred during the Neolithic and Bronze Age could have affected the European climate by 2.5 ka.
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| 8. |
- Strandberg, Gustav, 1977-, et al.
(författare)
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Mid-Holocene European climate revisited : New high-resolution regional climate model simulations using pollen-based land-cover
- 2022
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Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land-cover changes have a clear impact on local climates via biophysical effects. European land cover has been affected by human activities for at least 6000 years, but possibly longer. It is thus highly probable that humans altered climate before the industrial revolution (AD1750-1850). In this study, climate and vegetation 6000 years (6 ka) ago is investigated using one global climate model, two regional climate models, one dynamical vegetation model, pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation cover using a model of the pollen-vegetation relationship and a statistical model for spatial interpolation of the reconstructed land cover. This approach enables us to study 6 ka climate with potential natural and reconstructed land cover, and to determine how differences in land cover impact upon simulated climate. The use of two regional climate models enables us to discuss the robustness of the results. This is the first experiment with two regional climate models of simulated palaeo-climate based on regional climate models. Different estimates of 6 ka vegetation are constructed: simulated potential vegetation and reconstructed vegetation. Potential vegetation is the natural climate-induced vegetation as simulated by a dynamical vegetation model driven by climate conditions from a climate model. Bayesian spatial model interpolated point estimates of pollen-based plant abundances combined with estimates of climate-induced potential un-vegetated land cover were used for reconstructed vegetation. The simulated potential vegetation is heavily dominated by forests: evergreen coniferous forests dominate in northern and eastern Europe, while deciduous broadleaved forests dominate central and western Europe. In contrast, the reconstructed vegetation cover has a large component of open land in most of Europe. The simulated 6 ka climate using reconstructed vegetation was 0-5 degrees C warmer than the pre-industrial (PI) climate, depending on season and region. The largest differences are seen in north-eastern Europe in winter with about 4-6 degrees C, and the smallest differences (close to zero) in southwestern Europe in winter. The simulated 6 ka climate had 10-20% more precipitation than PI climate in northern Europe and 10-20% less precipitation in southern Europe in summer. The results are in reasonable agreement with proxy-based climate reconstructions and previous similar climate modelling studies. As expected, the global model and regional models indicate relatively similar climates albeit with regional differences indicating that, models response to land-cover changes differently. The results indicate that the anthropogenic land-cover changes, as given by the reconstructed vegetation, in this study are large enough to have a significant impact on climate. It is likely that anthropogenic impact on European climate via land-use change was already taking place at 6 ka. Our results suggest that anthropogenic land-cover changes at 6 ka lead to around 0.5 degrees C warmer in southern Europe in summer due to biogeophysical forcing. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 9. |
- Bragée, Petra, et al.
(författare)
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Historical TOC concentration minima during peak sulfur deposition in two Swedish lakes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 12:2, s. 307-322
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Decadal-scale variations in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in lake water since AD1200 in two small lakes in southern Sweden were reconstructed based on visible-near-infrared spectroscopy (VNIRS) of their recent sediment successions. In order to assess the impacts of local land-use changes, regional variations in sulfur, and nitrogen deposition and climate variations on the inferred changes in TOC concentration, the same sediment records were subjected to multi-proxy palaeolimnological analyses. Changes in lake-water pH were inferred from diatom analysis, whereas pollen-based land-use reconstructions (Landscape Reconstruction Algorithm) together with geochemical records provided information on catchment-scale environmental changes, and comparisons were made with available records of climate and population density. Our long-term reconstructions reveal that inferred lake-water TOC concentrations were generally high prior to AD1900, with additional variability coupled mainly to changes in forest cover and agricultural land-use intensity. The last century showed significant changes, and unusually low TOC concentrations were inferred at AD1930-1990, followed by a recent increase, largely consistent with monitoring data. Variations in sulfur emissions, with an increase in the early 1900s to a peak around AD1980 and a subsequent decrease, were identified as an important driver of these dynamics at both sites, while processes related to the introduction of modern forestry and recent increases in precipitation and temperature may have contributed, but the effects differed between the sites. The increase in lake-water TOC concentration from around AD1980 may therefore reflect a recovery process. Given that the effects of sulfur deposition now subside and that the recovery of lake-water TOC concentrations has reached pre-industrial levels, other forcing mechanisms related to land management and climate change may become the main drivers of TOC concentration changes in boreal lake waters in the future.
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| 10. |
- Krzysztofik, Robert, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental hazards and urban abandonment: Case studies and typological issues
- 2015
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Ingår i: Geografiska Annaler. Series B. Human Geography. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0435-3684 .- 1468-0467. ; 97:4, s. 291-308
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The article discusses the phenomenon of urban abandonment as a result of environmental hazards. Seen as an outcome of environmental drivers, the underlying assumption is that a characteristic of environmental hazards is their spatial and temporal constancy of impact, whereby processes and phenomena having taken place in the past have their analogies in the present. In order to generate insights for future research and policy development, there is a need to pay greater attention to the precarious relationship between humans and the natural environment, not least by drawing lessons from the past through the study of historical cases. The article clarifies the dynamic interactions of drivers and their progression through various stages of urban abandonment. This is done by recourse to an analysis of some general trends and an in-depth examination of three selected case studies from Poland. It has two objectives. The first is to identify the historical role of environmental drivers in the process of urban abandonment, while the second one is to contribute to the typology of environmentally related processes of urban abandonment in order to better identify future calamities. With respect to the former, the findings reveal that the relation between environmental hazards and urban abandonment is pertinent in regions with specific geographic conditions and pertains only to certain categories of urban settlements. With respect to the latter, by drawing on these findings, we propose some alterations and amendments to McLeman’s comprehensive model of settlement abandonment in the context of global environmental change.
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