1.
Ruangpan, Laddaporn, et al.
(författare)
Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions
2020
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Hydro-meteorological risks are a growing issue for societies, economies and environments around the world. An effective, sustainable response to such risks and their future uncertainty requires a paradigm shift in our research and practical efforts. In this respect, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) offer the potential to achieve a more effective and flexible response to hydro-meteorological risks while also enhancing human well-being and biodiversity. The present paper describes a new methodology that incorporates stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria analysis framework, as part of a tool for selecting risk mitigation measures. The methodology has been applied to Tamnava river basin in Serbia and Nangang river basin in Taiwan within the EC-funded RECONECT project. The results highlight the importance of involving stakeholders in the early stages of projects in order to achieve successful implementation of NBSs. The methodology can assist decision-makers in formulating desirable benefits and co-benefits and can enable a systematic and transparent NBSs planning process.
2.
Erić, Ranka, et al.
(författare)
Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River Basin with the HEC-HMS model
2019
Ingår i: Glasnik Sumarskog fakulteta. ; :119, s. 33-60
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Merćez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either “present†or “pastâ€, and “spring†or “summer†group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with “spring†parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.
3.
Ivković, Marija, et al.
(författare)
Improved input to distributed hydrologic model in areas with sparse subdaily rainfall data using multivariate daily rainfall disaggregation
2018
Ingår i: Journal of Hydroinformatics. - : IWA Publishing. - 1464-7141 .- 1465-1734.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Flood forecasting relies on good quality of observed and forecasted rainfall. In Serbia, the recording rain gauge network is sparse and rainfall data mainly come from dense non-recording rain gauges. This is not beneficial for flood forecasting in smaller catchments and short-duration events, when hydrologic models operating on subdaily scale are applied. Moreover, differences in rainfall amounts from two types of gauges can be considerable, which is common in operational hydrological practice. This paper examines the possibility of including daily rainfall data from dense observation networks in flood forecasting based on subdaily data, using the extreme flood event in the Kolubara catchment in May 2014 as a case study. Daily rainfall from a dense observation network is disaggregated to hourly scale using the MuDRain multivariate disaggregation software. The disaggregation procedure results in well-reproduced rainfall dynamics and adjusts rainfall volume to the values from the non-recording gauges. The fully distributed wflow_hbv model, which is under development as a forecasting tool for the Kolubara catchment, is used for flood simulations with two alternative hourly rainfall data. The results show an improvement when the disaggregated rainfall from denser network is used, thus indicating the significance of better representation of rainfall temporal and spatial variability for flood forecasting.
4.
Plavšić, Jasna, et al.
(författare)
Accuracy of Runoff Timing in Simulations with the Hydrologic Models
2018
Ingår i: Proc. 6th Int. Conf. Contemporary Achievements in Civil Engineering, 2018. - Subotica, Serbia.
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Hydrological models are developed to simulate the catchment response from the meteorological data and have numerous practical applications. The hydrologic models are also frequently applied in the assessment of the climate change impacts to provide hydrologic simulations with projections of climate variables under some specified climate change scenario. To obtain reliable projections, robust hydrologic models are required. Model efficiency is usually quantified in terms of the performance measures or hydrologic signatures such as mean flows, flow duration curve or seasonal runoff distribution. The timing of runoff is rarely considered as a signature although it is of crucial importance when assessing the effects of climate change such as the earlier occurrence of floods. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the hydrologic model for the Toplica River basin in reproducing different signatures including the runoff timing. The results show good model performance, which is, however, not supported by the agreement of the observed and simulated runoff timing indicators. We therefore strongly suggest enclosure of these timing indicators in a model evaluation procedure, especially for the models intended for assessment of climate change impacts.… Read more
5.
Plavšić, Jasna, et al.
(författare)
Long-term behaviour of precipitation at three stations in Serbia
2016
Ingår i: Acta Hydrotechnica. - 0352-3551. ; 29:50, s. 23-56
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
This paper investigates precipitation records at three precipitation stations in Serbia that received the greatestamount of rainfall during the catastrophic floods that struck Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia inMay 2014. The aim is to identify precipitation anomalies by analysing trends in different precipitationindices, including precipitation totals, maxima of durations from one to seven days and the rate of occurrenceof precipitation exceeding certain thresholds, while looking at the multi-decadal oscillations in the data thatmay explain the variability. Three stations in Serbia are considered: Loznica, Valjevo and Belgrade, withrecord of 62, 65 and 91 years, respectively. The results show somewhat different long-term behaviour atthese stations. Significant increasing trends in some indices are detected at Loznica, while most of thesetrends are not present at the other two stations. Oscillatory behaviour at three stations is also somewhatdifferent and it is difficult to conclude whether the detected trends are consistent with backgroundoscillations seen in the longest Belgrade series. Analysis of long-term behaviour of monthly totals shows amultitude of patterns, indicating that the long-term behaviour of the annual precipitation series has a verycomplex structure. No significant increasing trend is detected in May series at any station.
6.
Pudar, Ranko, et al.
(författare)
Evaluation of Green and Grey Flood Mitigation Measures in Rural Watersheds
2020
Ingår i: Applied Sciences. - : MDPI AG. - 2076-3417. ; 10:19, s. 1-25
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Floods cause considerable damages worldwide and mitigation of their adverse effects through effective protection measures is needed. Along with the commonly applied “grey” infrastructure, “green” measures that can offer additional benefits, such as ecosystem services, are increasingly being considered lately. While the recent research tendencies are focused on the effectiveness and the value of green measures in urban areas, this paper presents a comprehensive financial evaluation of green and grey flood mitigation scenarios for a smaller rural watershed. A micro-scale damage model that builds on the hydrodynamic modeling of hazard, detailed asset identification, and damage assessment is presented and applied for evaluation of benefits from various flood mitigation measures in the Tamnava watershed in Serbia. Four scenarios are considered: (1) existing flood protection system; (2) green scenario involving new detention basins; (3) grey infrastructure enhancement by rising of the existing levees and diverting flood discharges; and (4) green-grey scenario that combines scenarios (2) and (3). The benefits (loss reduction) are the greatest with the green scenario and marginally higher with the combined green-grey scenario. The results suggest that for small rural watersheds, a holistic, integrative approach that includes both types of infrastructure can provide the most effective flood risk mitigation.
7.
Stanić, Miloš, et al.
(författare)
Extreme Flood Reconstruction by Using the 3DNet Platform for Hydrological Modelling
2017
Ingår i: Journal of Hydroinformatics. - : IWA Publishing. - 1464-7141 .- 1465-1734.
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat) abstract
Notwithstanding recent advances in hydrological modelling, flood simulations remain challenging since many processes must be simulated with high computational efficiency. This paper presents a novel geographic information system (GIS)-oriented platform 3DNet and the associated hydrologic model, with focus on the platform and model features that are relevant for flood simulations. The platform enables hydraulic structures to be incorporated in the hydrologic model, as well as water retention. A limiting capacity can be imposed on every river reach enabling estimation of flooding volume. Runoff is simulated within irregularly shaped units that can be aggregated providing spatial flexibility, i.e. model setup can vary from lumped to semi- and fully-distributed. The model contains many parameters with a physical connotation that can be inferred from catchment characteristics, and it enables simulations with minimum data requirements. All algorithms are implemented in C++ warranting fast computations, while the spatial flexibility can provide additional speed-up. The model is used for a reconstruction of a devastating flood in the Kolubara catchment in May 2014. Despite incomplete and uncertain observations, reasonable results across the catchment are obtained with the plausible parameter estimates. The results suggest that enclosure of the presented features in flood simulation tools would improve simulation accuracy and efficiency.
8.
Todorović, Andrijana, et al.
(författare)
A Comprehensive Hydrologic Model Evaluation based on Multitemporal Model Performance
2018
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Hydrologic models have to be calibrated prior to their application. However, there are numerous parameter setsthat perform equally well in the calibration period (equifinality), and model performance commonly decreasesoutside the calibration period (problem of model transferability in time). An analysis of consistency in modelperformance is proposed to distinguish plausible models among numerous equally well performing ones. Modelefficiency is evaluated over various subperiods, rather than represented by a single performance measure calculatedover the entire simulation period. Plausible models yield consistent (minimum variance) efficiency, while highvariation in efficiency across the subperiods indicates model overfit. Considerations of consistency could mitigateequifinality and enable detection of the models that perform satisfactorily under various changing conditions.In this research, a multitemporal model evaluation is conducted; namely, model efficiency is estimated oversubperiods of increasing length included within the calibration period, and each subperiod of a specific lengthstarts one water year after the previous one. Model performance is quantified in terms of the Kling-Guptaefficiency measure (KGE), and bias in runoff volume as an additional performance measure.The 3DNet-Catch model is employed for simulations in the Toplica catchment in Serbia. A semi-lumpedmodel setup is applied; the catchment is divided into nine elevation zones, all of which are assigned a singleparameter set, while meteorological forcing is adjusted for each zone to account for the change in elevation. Theavailable record period (1980-2013) is divided into the calibration-wet period (1997-2013), and the evaluation-dryperiod (1981-1997). The periods are selected to provide assessment of model applicability for simulations underchanging conditions, since numerous hydrologic projections under climate change for Serbia suggest decrease inprecipitation and runoff.For this analysis, 20000 parameter sets are sampled from their uniform prior distributions, and two groupscomprising 100 parameters sets each are formed. The first group (G1) is composed of the parameters sets thatresult in the highest KGE value over the entire calibration period. The second group (G2) includes sets withthe highest mean and minimum KGE variance across all 1- through 15-year long periods within the calibration one.Only 27 parameter sets are common to both groups. The median KGE over the calibration period amountsto 0.74(G1) and 0.66(G2), while in the evaluation period these values decrease to 0.50(G1) and 0.54(G2). TheKGE averaged over all subperiods is 0.67(G1) and 0.66(G2) in the calibration period, and 0.45(G1) and 0.51(G2)in the evaluation one. G2 yields smaller variance in KGE over both periods. The median bias in runoff volumeamounts to 1%(G1) and 11.5%(G2) in the calibration period, and 24.6%(G1) and 14%(G2) over the evaluation one. Additionally, G2 encompasses more observations than the G1 ensemble in both periods. Overall, G2yields relatively consistent performance, while a drop of G1 efficiency outside the calibration period is pronounced.
9.
Todorović, Andrijana, et al.
(författare)
Advanced hydrological modelling in urban areas using hydroinformatic tools
2011
Ingår i: Int. Conf. on Innovation as a Function of Engineering Development. - Niš, Serbia. ; , s. 357-362
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Urbanization significantly affects water cycle on a local scale by both: altering the elements of the cycle and introducing new elements (such as water supply network or infiltration systems) and interactions with those elements. The new elements and interactions increase the complexity of water cycle modelling in urban settings. To achieve the goal of integrated urban water management, an integrated modelling of water cycle components has to be performed. 3DNet-UGROW is a software tool which integrates modelling of surface water, urban water systems and groundwater, considering all the interactions among those components of the water cycle. 3DNet-UGROW contains three simulation models: RUNOFF, which enables delineation of the ground surface into subcatchments and calculation of surface water balance, UNSAT, which simulates motion of infiltrated water within the vadose zone, described by Richards equation, and GROW, which enables groundwater flow and pollution transport simulation. During the past few decades an increasing trend of groundwater levels in the urban aquifers has been detected. This increase can partly be attributed to leakage from water mains. In this paper, the effect of water supply network leakage on groundwater levels in the urban part of Pančevački Rit near Belgrade is examined using the 3DNet-UGROW hydroinformatic tool.
10.
Todorović‡, Andrijana, et al.
(författare)
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Floods in Two Catchments in Serbia
2017
Ingår i: Conference proceedings 5th International Conference Contemporary Achievements in Civil Engineering 2017. - : Faculty of Civil Engineering Subotica. ; , s. 685-694
Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt) abstract
Hydraulic structures are designed according to flows of a given return period. The design flows, estimated by means of statistical analysis, depend on the observations, while climate change impact is not explicitly taken into account. As operating life of most hydraulic structures spreads over several decades, climate change impact should not be neglected. In this paper an analysis of climate change impact on flood flows is conducted for the Kolubara River at Slovac and for the Toplica River at Doljevac. The analysis is performed on the outputs of hydrologic modelling with the precipitation and temperature projections as the input. The Peaks over Threshold (POT) method is applied for frequency analysis of floods extracted from the flow projections. Characteristic quantiles are calculated for two future periods and compared to those estimated over the baseline period. The results suggest an increase in flood flows, particularly in the mid-21st century. Regardless of considerable uncertainty, these results can be used as indication of increase in design flows, and should be therefore taken into consideration within the hydraulic structure design. (12) (PDF) Assessment of climate change impact on flood flows in two catchments in Serbia. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317635446_Assessment_of_climate_change_impact_on_flood_flows_in_two_catchments_in_Serbia [accessed Sep 08 2021].
