| 1. |
- Malmberg, Bo, et al.
(författare)
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Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society
- 2006
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Ingår i: Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper. ; :2006037., s. 36-
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Aging of the population will affect the growth path of all countries. To assess the historical and future importance of this claim we use two popular approaches and evaluate their merits and disadvantages by confronting them to Swedish data. We first stimulate an endogenous growth. Rising longevity increases the incentive to get education, which in turn has ever-lasting effects on growth through a human capital externality. Secondly, we consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. Comparing the two approaches, encompassing tests show that each of them contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting
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| 2. |
- Agell, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Growth and the public sector : a reply
- 1999
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Fölster and Henrekson (1998) claim that they, by addressing a number of econometric problems, can establish that it is likely that economies with a large public sector grow more slowly than economies with a small public sector. But their regressions are fundamentally flawed. Re-estimating their growth equation using theoretically valid instruments, we find that the growth effect of the public sector is statistically insignificant, and much smaller than the point-estimates reported by Fölster and Henrekson. This is consistent with the agnostic conclusion, drawn by us and many others, that cross-country growth regressions are unlikely to give a reliable answer to whether a large public sector is growth promoting or retarding.
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| 3. |
- Agell, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Growth and the public sector : A reply
- 1999
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Ingår i: European Journal of Political Economy. - 0176-2680 .- 1873-5703. ; 15:2, s. 359-366
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fölster and Henrekson [Fölster, S., Henrekson, M., 1999. Growth and the public sector: A critique of the critics. European Journal of Political Economy 15, 337–358] claim that, by addressing a number of econometric problems, they can establish that it is likely that economies with a large public sector grow more slowly than economies with a small public sector. But their regressions are fundamentally flawed. Re-estimating their growth equation using theoretically valid instruments, we find that the growth effect of the public sector is statistically insignificant, and much smaller than the point-estimates that they report. This is consistent with the agnostic conclusion, drawn by us and others, that cross-country growth regressions are unlikely to provide a reliable answer as to whether a large public sector is growth promoting or retarding.
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| 4. |
- Agell, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Growth and the public sector : A critical review essay
- 1997
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Ingår i: European Journal of Political Economy. - 0176-2680 .- 1873-5703. ; 13:1, s. 33-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review the theoretical and empirical evidence on the relation between growth and the public sector against the background of the current debate on the issue. The evidence is found to admit no conclusion on whether the relation is positive, negative or non-existent. A simple cross-country regression in an OECD sample illustrates how the relation is easily tilted from negative to positive by introducing control variables for initial GDP and the dependent population.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Agell, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Tillväxt och offentlig sektor
- 1994
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Ingår i: Ekonomisk Debatt. - 0345-2646. ; 22:4, s. 373-385
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- I den populära svenska debatten hävdas ofta att det finns ett starkt negativt samband mellan offentlig sektor och ekonomisk tillväxt. Den empiriska litteraturen ger emellertid inte något belägg for ett entydigt kausalt samband från stor offentlig sektor till låg tillväxt. Jonas Agell, Thomas Lindh och Henry Ohlsson går i denna artikel igenom den aktuella teoretiska och empiriska forskningen på området. Med några enkla jämförelser för OECD-länderna visar de att andra faktorer än offentlig sektor kan tänkas ha större betydelse för tillväxtskillnader mellan länder.
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| 7. |
- Bruér, Mattias, 1974-
(författare)
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Empirical Studies in Demography and Macroeconomics
- 2004
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Essay 1 examines the age-structure effects on Swedish inflation both within sample and out-of-sample. Within sample, time-series regressions indicate age structure to have significant explanatory power on Swedish inflation. The relative age-structure effects are well in accordance with both the life-cycle hypothesis and the Phillips-Okun relationship. In the forecasting exercise, the age models outperform the estimated benchmarks; i.e. two autoregressive models, an ARIMA and the two-per cent forecast corresponding to the inflation target. The age models are also considerably better than the consensus forecasts and they are equal in merit to a general VAR model that has been used by the Bank of Sweden. Essay 2 contributes to the existing literature in several ways. It is the first study emphasizing the importance of age-structure effects on real exchange rates within the class of fundamental-based models and it is also among the first examining age-structure effects on real exchange rates in general. In particular, age structure is hypothesized to be related to real exchange rates mainly via its effects on the current account. The estimated reduced-form models strongly support this view.Essay 3 tests the one-for-one relationship between inflation and nominal interest rates -- the strong version of the Fisher Hypothesis -- on an OECD panel. In contrast to previous studies on the Fisher Hypothesis, testing is carried out in a panel context. Exploring the panel dimension, the power and efficiency of the tests for unit roots and cointegration are increased. Furthermore, panel tests are especially well suited when the sample period is relatively short, but where links or similarities across countries are present. Utilizing this property of the panel tests, it is examined whether the evidence in favor of the Fisher Hypothesis is stronger when markets are deregulated.
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| 8. |
- de la Croix, David, et al.
(författare)
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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden : 1750-2050
- 2009
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Ingår i: Journal of macroeconomics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0164-0704 .- 1873-152X. ; 31:1, s. 132-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper addresses two issues. To what extent can models estimated on modern data be used to account for growth patterns in the past? Can information on historical patterns help to improve long-term forecasting of economic growth? We consider a reduced-form statistical model based on the demographic dividend literature. Assuming that there is a common DGP guiding growth through the demographic transition, we use an estimate from post-war global data to backcast the Swedish historical GDP growth. The results indicate that the assumption of a common DGP can be warranted, at least back to 1870. Given the stability of the relationship between population and growth, we use the model to forecast income for the next 50 years. We compare our approach to a previous attempt to simulate the long-term Swedish growth path with an endogenous growth model. Encompassing tests show that each of the models contains independent information on the Swedish growth path, suggesting that there is a benefit from combining them for long-term forecasting.
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| 9. |
- de la Croix, David, et al.
(författare)
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Swedish Economic Growth and Education Since 1800.
- 2008
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Ingår i: Canadian Journal of Economics. - : Wiley. - 0008-4085 .- 1540-5982. ; 41:1, s. 166-185
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- De la Croix is also affiliated with CORE; Malmberg is also affiliated with the Department of Geography, Stockholm University. De la Croix acknowledges financial support from the Belgian French speaking community (Grant ARC 03/08-235 ‘New macroeconomic approaches to the development problem’) and the Belgian Federal Government (Grant PAI P6/07 ‘Economic policy and finance in the global economy: equilibrium analysis and social evaluation’). We are grateful to two referees, Fati Shadman, and participants at seminars at IRES, European Central Bank, PAA 2006 (Population Association of America), and International Symposium for Forecasters for useful comments on an earlier draft.
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| 10. |
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