| 1. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative risk analysis – Ship security analysis for effective risk control options
- 2013
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Ingår i: Safety Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-7535 .- 1879-1042. ; 58:1, s. 98-112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analysed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.
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| 2. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security challenges in high-risk areas : manageable or insurmountable?
- 2015
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Ingår i: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA). - : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 1651-436X .- 1654-1642. ; 14:2, s. 201-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.
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| 3. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security analysis : the effect of ship speed and effective lookout
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the ASME 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2013). - : ASME Press. - 9780791855324
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.
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| 4. |
- Ekström, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Differentiation strategies for defence supply chain design
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 2399-6439. ; 4:2, s. 183-202
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeDefence supply chains (SCs) aim at operational outcomes, and armed forces depend on them to provide availability and preparedness in peace and sustainability in war. Previous research has focussed on strategies for SCs aiming at financial outcomes. This raises the question of how suitable commercial supply chain strategies (SCSs) are for supply chain design (SCD) in defence. The purpose of this paper is to explain the constructs of SCSs that satisfy military operational requirements and to propose SCSs that are appropriate in defence.Design/methodology/approachThis paper reports on a Delphi study with 20 experts from Swedish defence authorities. Through three Delphi rounds, two workshops and a validation round, these experts contributed to the reported findings.FindingsThe findings demonstrate that commercial SC constructs are acceptable and applicable in defence but not sufficient. An additional strategy is required to satisfy requirements on availability, preparedness and sustainability. The paper shows that different requirements in peace and war make it challenging to design suitable defence SCs and proposes eight SCSs that satisfy these requirements.Research limitations/implicationsThe results emanate from the Swedish defence context and further research is required for generalisation.Originality/valueThis paper extends theory by investigating SCs aiming at operational outcomes. For managers in companies and defence authorities, it explicates how the unique issues in defence must influence SCD to satisfy operational requirements.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Ekström, Thomas, 1961-
(författare)
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Segmentation and differentiation in defence supply chain design : A dynamic purchasing portfolio model for defence procurement
- 2020
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- An important priority in the current Swedish Defence Bill is to increase the operational warfighting capability of the Swedish Armed Forces, which has implications for the defence supply chain. A recent study suggested that the Swedish Armed Forces should use segmentation of supplies and differentiation of supply chains to enable an affordable supply chain design (SCD). This raises questions regarding which segmentation model and which supply chain strategies (SCSs) the Swedish Armed Forces should use.The purpose of this research is to design and develop a purchasing portfolio model (PPM) for defence procurement, which will be of practical use for defence authorities. The author defines a PPM as consisting of a segmentation model, tactical levers, differentiation strategies and guidance for management decisions. The research builds on a Delphi study with twenty experts from Swedish defence authorities. It addresses the operational requirements on readiness and sustainability that must be satisfied, as well as research gaps and open issues in the literature regarding PPM design and application.The findings include several novelties. The author proposes a dynamic PPM, including an innovative two-stage segmentation model, with a precursor and a two-dimensional model. The latter merges sixteen elements into one square and three other segments. Another originality is that the PPM is both prescriptive and serves as a catalyst for in-depth discussions. The author also develops guidance for management decisions, including twelve tactical levers, and eight SCSs to differentiate treatment of the supply segments.The research contributes to theory by combining constructs from the purchasing and supply management (PSM) literature and supply chain management (SCM) literature, and applying them in the context of military logistics, including defence procurement. It contributes to practice by developing a PPM that is relevant to practitioners in defence procurement and satisfies the operational requirements of the Swedish Armed Forces. It also contributes to methodology by investigating how researchers can use two panels in Delphi studies to enhance research validity.
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| 7. |
- Ekström, Thomas, 1961-
(författare)
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The Delphi Technique – Limitations and Possibilities
- 2020
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Ingår i: The 32nd Annual NOFOMA Conference, 17 – 18 September on Internet.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeThe dual purpose of this paper is to analyse the implications on research rigour of using two panels in a Delphi study, and to take a first step towards investigating how researchers in logistics and SCM establish rigour in Delphi studies.Design/methodology/approachBased on a literature review on research rigour in Delphi studies, this paper analyses how a modified design, with two panels, effected research rigour in a Delphi study that produced unexpected results. The paper also conducts a pilot literature review on Delphi-studies in logistics and SCM research, and investigates how these authors establish research rigour.FindingsThis paper finds that with two panels, researchers may enhance rigour in a Delphi study, but also that such a design may lead to results that would be less likely with a conventional design, especially if combined with concluding workshops. The pilot literature review indicates that Delphi-studies in logistics and SCM research establish rigour through the provision of an audit trail, rather than by explicitly discussing the quality criteria of correspondence and/or trustworthiness.Research limitations/implications (if applicable)The research indicates limitations with a conventional Delphi design, with one expert panel, and opportunities with a modified design, with two panels. Further research is required to explore these indicative findings.Original/valueThe paper demonstrates how a modified design of the Delphi technique, in combination with concluding workshops, can produce results and insights that would be more difficult to achieve with only one expert panel.
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| 8. |
- Ekström, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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Towards a purchasing portfolio model for defence procurement – A Delphi study of Swedish defence authorities
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Journal of Production Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0925-5273 .- 1873-7579. ; 233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explains the constructs of a purchasing portfolio model (PPM) that defence authorities can use in practice in defence procurement and designs a segmentation model. We identify open PPM design and application questions in the literature and conduct a Delphi study with twenty experts from Swedish defence authorities to design a segmentation model that is fit-for-purpose. The paper addresses the open design and application questions discussed in the literature and satisfies the operational requirements of the Swedish Armed Forces (SwAF). The proposed segmentation model builds on three dimensions: the operational requirements of the SwAF, the market's ability to deliver supplies on time, and limitations in the SwAF operational capability if the market does not deliver supplies on time. To reduce complexity, we propose a two-stage model in which we use one dimension as a precursor to a two-dimensional model. In the latter, we merge sixteen elements into one square along with three other segments which users should treat differently. The paper contributes to extant academic knowledge on PPMs by eliciting practitioners' views on open design and application questions. We develop the proposed segmentation model in cooperation with practitioners and believe that it will be of value in defence procurement practice.
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| 9. |
- Tärnholm, Therese, et al.
(författare)
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Military autonomous underwater vehicles : An implementation perspective on legal and ethical aspects
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Maritime Research. - 1697-4840 .- 1697-9133. ; 19:3, s. 39-46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The technology development in the areas of uncrewed and autonomous systems is creating many opportunities for use, both in the civil and the military realm. The technology itself has become faster and more precise in the situations it is exposed to compared to a human in the same situation, bringing on the discussion of where and when these systems are acceptable to use. This study investigates how the use of autonomous systems in naval applications are affected by legal, for example UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and ethical concerns, such as meaningful human control, when performing a mission at sea. The aim is to support development and implementation efforts. Legal and ethical aspects are applied to two hypothetical cases using small autonomous underwater vehicles to illustrate challenges. The challenges are often connected to trust in the system and the accountability for its actions, making it difficult to see the benefits of using such systems, resulting in the benefits being overridden by possible negative effects. Therefore, it is necessary to have a balance between trust and risk and a balance between technology opportunities and governance regulations, where the two opposites must evolve together for a reliable system.
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| 10. |
- Andersson, Kent, et al.
(författare)
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Military utility : A proposed concept to support decision-making
- 2015
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Ingår i: Technology in society. - : Elsevier. - 0160-791X .- 1879-3274. ; 43, s. 23-32
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A concept called Military Utility is proposed for the study of the use of technology in military operations. The proposed concept includes a three-level structure representing key features and their detailed components. On basic level the Military Utility of a technical system, to a military actor, in a specific context, is a compound measure of the military effectiveness, of the assessed technical system's suitability to the military capability system and of the affordability. The concept is derived through conceptual analysis and is based on related concepts used in social sciences, the military domain and Systems Engineering. It is argued that the concept has qualitative explanatory powers and can support military decision-making regarding technology in forecasts, defense planning, development, utilization and the lessons learned process. The suggested concept is expected to contribute to the development of the science of Military-Technology and to be found useful to actors related to defense.
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