Space-Time Clusters of crime in Stockholm, Sweden

• The aim of the study is to detect geographical clustering of offences over time using Kulldorff’s scan test(SaTScan version 9.01; Kulldorff, 2010) and police recorded data over Stockholm city, the capital of Sweden.This technique has a rigorous inference theory for identifying statistically significant clusters. The space–timescan statistics are used in a single retrospective analysis using data from 1st January 2006 to 31st December2009. A four years’ dataset is collapsed into ‘one year’. All space-time dimensions of the data are kept except‘year’. Clusters over the hours of the day, weekday and weekend and by seasons were tested. Total populationbut also day-time and night-time populations were used as reference. Findings show clear distinct patterns ofconcentration for violence (assault and threat) and property crimes (theft, robbery and burglary) over time andspace. Whilst property crimes tend to happen more often in the afternoons in the center and regional commercialcenters in the southern and western parts of Stockholm, violence takes place more often in the night, and isheavily concentrated in large parts of the city center. Weekends are more targeted than weekdays for bothoffences. Regardless of day of the week, the main urban core of the city contains the most likely cluster thatextends to commercial and socially disorganized areas in the west and south Stockholm. Whilst property crimelevels do not show significant differences over the seasons, violent crimes levels do (winter and summer). Themost likely clusters tend to be fairly constant in space over time. The article ends with implications of the resultsfor both research and practice.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Annan samhällsbyggnadsteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Civil Engineering -- Other Civil Engineering (hsv//eng)

SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP  -- Sociologi (hsv//swe)

SOCIAL SCIENCES  -- Sociology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

spatial concentration

space-time cluster

poisson discrete model

violent and property offences

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