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Fluctuations in Arc...
Fluctuations in Arctic sea-ice extent : Comparing observations and climate models
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Agarwal, S. (författare)
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- Wettlaufer, J. S. (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,KTH,Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics NORDITA,Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK,Nordiska institutet för teoretisk fysik (Nordita)
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2018-08-20
- 2018
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions. Series A. - : Royal Society Publishing. - 1364-503X .- 1471-2962. ; 376:2129
- Relaterad länk:
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https://royalsociety...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea-ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multifractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to biannual time scales the ice extent exhibits white noise structure, and there is a decadal scale trend associated with the decay of the ice cover. It is shown that (i) there is a large inter-model variability in the time scales extracted from the models, (ii) none of the models exhibits the decadal time scales found in the satellite observations, (iii) five of the 21 models examined exhibit the observed white noise structure, and (iv) the multi-model ensemble mean exhibits neither the observed white noise structure nor the observed decadal trend. It is proposed that the observed fluctuation statistics produced by this method serve as an appropriate test bed for modelling studies.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER -- Elektroteknik och elektronik -- Robotteknik och automation (hsv//swe)
- ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY -- Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering -- Robotics (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Predictions
- Sea ice
- Stochastic processes
- Forecasting
- Random processes
- Stochastic systems
- Time measurement
- Time series
- White noise
- Arctic sea ice
- Decadal timescale
- Modeling variability
- Modelling studies
- Multi-model ensemble
- Noise structures
- Satellite observations
- Time series method
- Climate models
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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