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On the applicabilit...
On the applicability of the RETAS model for forecasting aftershock probability in underground mines (Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden)
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- Gospodinov, Dragomir (författare)
- Faculty of Physics and Technology, Plovdiv University ‘Paisiy Hilendarski’, 4002 Tsar Asen Str., 24, Plovdiv, Bulgaria
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- Dineva, Savka (författare)
- Luleå tekniska universitet,Geoteknologi
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- Dahnér-Lindkvist, Christina (författare)
- Luleå tekniska universitet,Geoteknologi
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Faculty of Physics and Technology, Plovdiv University ‘Paisiy Hilendarski’, 4002 Tsar Asen Str, 24, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Geoteknologi (creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-09-02
- 2022
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Journal of Seismology. - : Springer. - 1383-4649 .- 1573-157X. ; 26:5, s. 1023-1037
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://ltu.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object)
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Aftershock series of even comparatively small seismic events can pose a risk to the mining operation or the personnel in deep underground mines as the main shocks and some of the aftershocks can cause damage in the rock mass. Stochastic modeling was applied in this study for the analysis of the temporal evolution of aftershock occurrence probability during a M1.85 aftershock sequence in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden. The Restricted Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (RETAS) model was chosen for estimation of the aftershock occurrence probability. This model considers all events with magnitude above the magnitude of completeness M0 and has the advantage of including the Modified Omori Formula (MOF) model and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model as its end versions, considering also all intermediate models. The model was applied sequentially to data samples covering cumulative periods of time, starting from the first 2 h after the main event and increasing them by 2 h until the period covered the entire 72-h sequence. For each sample, the best-fit RETAS version was identified and the probability of a M ≥ 0.5 aftershock for every next 2 h was determined through Monte Carlo simulation. The feasibility of the resulting probability evolution for suspension and re-starting of the mining operations was discussed together with possible prospects for future development of the methodology.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Geofysik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Geophysics (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Stochastic modeling
- ETAS
- RETAS
- MOF
- Mining seismicity
- Mining and Rock Engineering
- Gruv- och berganläggningsteknik
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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