Estimated health benefits of exhaust free transport in the city of Malmö, Southern Sweden

• Luftföroreningar står för ett av åtta förtida dödsfall i världen, och utgör därmed ett stort hot mot människors hälsa. HIA (hälsokonsekvensbedömningar) av hypotetiska förändringar i luftföroreningshalter kan användas som ett sätt att bedöma hälsoeffekter, planer och projekt som beslutsfattare behöver för att förhindra sjukdom. Syftet med denna studie var att beräkna hälsoeffekter som kan tillskrivas hypotetisk nedgång i luftföroreningshalter i Malmö i södra Sverige om en policy med avgasfri innerstad skulle genomföras.

• Air pollution is responsible for one in eight premature deaths worldwide, and thereby a major threat to human health. Health impact assessments of hypothetic changes in air pollution concentrations can be used as a mean of assessing the health impacts of policy, plans and projects, and support decision-makers in choices to prevent disease. The aim of this study was to estimate health impacts attributable to a hypothetical decrease in air pollution concentrations in the city of Malmö in Southern Sweden corresponding to a policy on-road transportations without tail-pipe emissions in the municipality. We used air pollution data modelled for each of the 326,092 inhabitants in Malmö by a Gaussian dispersion model combined with an emission database with >40,000 sources. The dispersion model calculates Nitrogen Oxides (NO) (later transformed into Nitrogen Dioxide (NO)) and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μg/m (PM) with high spatial and temporal resolution (85 m and 1 h, respectively). The average individual reduction was 5.1 (ranging from 0.6 to 11.8) μg/m in NO which would prevent 55 (2% of all deaths) to 93 (4%) deaths annually, depending on dose-response function used. Furthermore, we estimate that the NO reduction would result in 21 (6%) fewer cases of incident asthma in children, 95 (10%) fewer children with bronchitis every year, 30 (1%) fewer hospital admissions for respiratory disease, 87(4%) fewer dementia cases, and 11(11%) fewer cases of preeclampsia every year. The average reduction in PM of 0.6 (ranging from 0.1 till 1.7) μg/m would mean that 2729 (0.3%) work days would not be lost due to sick-days and that there would be 16,472 fewer restricted activity days (0.3%) that year had all on-road transportations been without tail-pipe emissions. Even though the estimates are sensitive to the dose-response functions used and to exposure misclassification errors, even the most conservative estimate of the number of prevented deaths is 7 times larger than the annual traffic fatalities in Malmö, indicating a substantial possibility to reduce the health burden attributed to tail-pipe emissions in the study area.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Hälsovetenskap -- Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Health Sciences -- Occupational Health and Environmental Health (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Air pollution

Clean air policy

HIA

Health effects

Health impact assessment

Air pollution

Clean air policy

Health effects

Health impact assessment

HIA

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