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Inferring beliefs a...
Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities
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- Andersen, Steffen (författare)
- Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen, Denmark
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- Fountain, John (författare)
- Department of Economics, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
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- Harrison, Glenn W. (författare)
- Department of Risk Management and Insurance, Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk, Georgia State University, Atlanta GA, United States
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- Hole, Arne Risa (författare)
- Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom
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- Rutström, Elisabet, 1955- (författare)
- Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta GA, United States
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2011-07-19
- 2012
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Theory and Decision. - : Springer Nature. - 0040-5833 .- 1573-7187. ; 73:1, s. 161-184
- Relaterad länk:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The experimental task consists of a series of standard lottery choices in which the subject is assumed to use conventional risk attitudes to select one lottery or the other and then a series of betting choices in which the subject is presented with a range of bookies offering odds on the outcome of some event that the subject has a belief over. Knowledge of the risk attitudes of subjects conditions the inferences about subjective beliefs. Maximum simulated likelihood methods are used to estimate a structural model in which subjects employ subjective beliefs to make bets. We present evidence that some subjective probabilities are indeed best characterized as probability distributions with non-zero variance.
Ämnesord
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Experiments
- Non-linear mixed logit
- Random coefficients
- Subjective beliefs
- Subjective risk
- Imprecise probabilities
- Mixed logit
- Risk attitude
- Simulated likelihood
- Structural models
- Subjective probability
- Estimation
- Maximum likelihood
- Model structures
- Risk perception
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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