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Food web and fisher...
Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea
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- Bauer, Barbara (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum,Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Germany
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- Gustafsson, Bo G. (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum,University of Helsinki, Finland
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Hyytiäinen, Kari (författare)
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Meier, H. E. Markus (författare)
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- Müller-Karulis, Bärbel (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum,Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Latvia
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Saraiva, Sofia (författare)
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- Tomczak, Maciej T. (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Stockholms universitets Östersjöcentrum
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2019-07-26
- 2019
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 48:11, s. 1337-1349
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://link.springe...
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Climate change
- Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE)
- Ecospace
- Fisheries
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
- Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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