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A mathematical mode...
A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2
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- Britton, Tom (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen
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Ball, Frank (författare)
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- Trapman, Pieter (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2020-06-23
- 2020
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 369:6505, s. 846-849
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://www.science....
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
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- Despite various levels of preventive measures, in 2020, many countries have suffered severely from the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Using a model, we show that population heterogeneity can affect disease-induced immunity considerably because the proportion of infected individuals in groups with the highest contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. We estimate that if R-0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be similar to 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60% obtained through homogeneous immunization of the population. Our estimates should be interpreted as an illustration of how population heterogeneity affects herd immunity rather than as an exact value or even a best estimate.
Ämnesord
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Infektionsmedicin (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Infectious Medicine (hsv//eng)
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