Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:DiVA.org:su-214575" > Global warming over...
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000 | 03279naa a2200397 4500 | |
001 | oai:DiVA.org:su-214575 | |
003 | SwePub | |
008 | 230206s2023 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
024 | 7 | a https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-2145752 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-92 DOI |
040 | a (SwePub)su | |
041 | a engb eng | |
042 | 9 SwePub | |
072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
100 | 1 | a Wunderling, Nicou Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA4 aut |
245 | 1 0 | a Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model |
264 | c 2022-12-22 | |
264 | 1 | b Springer Science and Business Media LLC,c 2023 |
338 | a print2 rdacarrier | |
520 | a Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential tipping elements such as the Greenland Ice Sheet and Amazon rainforest may be at increasing risk of crossing critical thresholds. This raises the question of how much this risk is amplified by increasing overshoot magnitude and duration. Here we investigate the danger for tipping under a range of temperature overshoot scenarios using a stylized network model of four interacting climate tipping elements. Our model analysis reveals that temporary overshoots can increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios, even when the long-term equilibrium temperature stabilizes within the Paris range. Our results suggest that avoiding high-end climate risks is possible only for low-temperature overshoots and if long-term temperatures stabilize at or below today’s levels of global warming. | |
650 | 7 | a NATURVETENSKAPx Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a NATURAL SCIENCESx Earth and Related Environmental Sciences0 (SwePub)1052 hsv//eng |
650 | 7 | a SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAPx Social och ekonomisk geografi0 (SwePub)5072 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a SOCIAL SCIENCESx Social and Economic Geography0 (SwePub)5072 hsv//eng |
700 | 1 | a Winkelmann, Ricarda4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Rockström, Johanu Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany4 aut0 (Swepub:su)jrock |
700 | 1 | a Loriani, Sina4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Armstrong McKay, David I.u Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,University of Exeter, UK; Georesilience Analytics, UK4 aut0 (Swepub:su)daar3019 |
700 | 1 | a Ritchie, Paul D. L.4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Sakschewski, Boris4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Donges, Jonathan F.u Stockholms universitet,Stockholm Resilience Centre,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Princeton University, USA4 aut0 (Swepub:su)jdong |
710 | 2 | a Stockholms universitetb Stockholm Resilience Centre4 org |
773 | 0 | t Nature Climate Changed : Springer Science and Business Media LLCg 13:1, s. 75-82q 13:1<75-82x 1758-678Xx 1758-6798 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-214575 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9 |
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