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A stochastic SIS ep...
A stochastic SIS epidemic with demography : initial stages and time to extinction
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- Andersson, Patrik (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen
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- Lindenstrand, David (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Matematiska institutionen
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2010-03-23
- 2011
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Journal of Mathematical Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0303-6812 .- 1432-1416. ; 62:3, s. 333-348
- Relaterad länk:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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visa fler...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
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- We study an open population stochastic epidemic model from the time of introduction of the disease, through a possible outbreak and to extinction. The model describes an SIS (susceptible–infective–susceptible) epidemic where all individuals, including infectious ones, reproduce at a given rate. An approximate expression for the outbreak probability is derived using a coupling argument. Further, we analyse the behaviour of the model close to quasi-stationarity, and the time to disease extinction, with the aid of a diffusion approximation. In this situation the number of susceptibles and infectives behaves as an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, centred around the stationary point, for an exponentially distributed time before going extinct.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Stochastic epidemic model
- Quasi stationarity
- SIS model
- Coupling
- Ornstein–Uhlenbeck
- Diffusion approximation
- Outbreak probability
- Mathematical statistics
- Matematisk statistik
- Mathematical Statistics
- matematisk statistik
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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