Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

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Wu, YaoDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia (författare)

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19 : a three-stage modelling study

Artikel/kapitelEngelska2022

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Elsevier,2022
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LIBRIS-ID:oai:DiVA.org:umu-195064
https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-195064URI
https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00073-0DOI

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Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19.Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades.Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901–2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2–4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7–5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3–10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2–5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9–4·6).Interpretation: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. Funding: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

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Li, ShanshanDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia (författare)
Zhao, QiDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China (författare)
Wen, BoDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia (författare)
Gasparrini, AntonioDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom (författare)
Tong, ShiluShanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, QLD, Brisbane, Australia (författare)
Overcenco, AlaNational Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova (författare)
Urban, AlešInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic (författare)
Schneider, AlexandraInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany (författare)
Entezari, AlirezaFaculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (författare)
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana MariaDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland (författare)
Zanobetti, AntonellaDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States (författare)
Analitis, AntonisDepartment of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece (författare)
Zeka, ArianaInstitute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, UK, London, United Kingdom (författare)
Tobias, AurelioInstitute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan (författare)
Nunes, BaltazarDepartment of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal (författare)
Alahmad, BarrakDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States (författare)
Armstrong, BenDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK, London, United Kingdom (författare)
Forsberg, Bertil,professor,1956-Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa(Swepub:umu)befo0001 (författare)
Pan, Shih-ChunNationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan (författare)
Íñiguez, CarmenDepartment of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain (författare)
Ameling, CarolineNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands (författare)
De la Cruz Valencia, CésarDepartment of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico (författare)
Åström, Christofer,1983-Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för hållbar hälsa(Swepub:umu)chas0002 (författare)
Houthuijs, DannyNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands (författare)
Van Dung, DoDepartment of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam (författare)
Royé, DominicCIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain (författare)
Indermitte, EneInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia (författare)
Lavigne, EricSchool of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, ON, Ottawa, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, ON, Ottawa, Canada (författare)
Mayvaneh, FatemehFaculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (författare)
Acquaotta, FiorellaDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy (författare)
de'Donato, FrancescaDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy (författare)
Rao, ShilpaNorwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway (författare)
Sera, FrancescoDepartment of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy (författare)
Carrasco-Escobar, GabrielHealth Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, La Jolla, United States (författare)
Kan, HaidongDepartment of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China (författare)
Orru, HansInstitute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia (författare)
Kim, HoGraduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea (författare)
Holobaca, Iulian-HoriaFaculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania (författare)
Kyselý, JanInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic (författare)
Madureira, JoanaEnvironmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit—Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal (författare)
Schwartz, JoelDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, MA, Boston, United States (författare)
Jaakkola, Jouni J KCenter for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (författare)
Katsouyanni, KleaDepartment of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, UK, London, United Kingdom (författare)
Hurtado Diaz, MagaliDepartment of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico (författare)
Ragettli, Martina SSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland (författare)
Hashizume, MasahiroDepartment of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan (författare)
Pascal, MathildeSanté Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France (författare)
de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, MichelineDepartment of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (författare)
Ortega, Nicolás ValdésDepartment of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile (författare)
Ryti, NiiloCenter for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (författare)
Scovronick, NoahGangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, GA, Atlanta, United States (författare)
Michelozzi, PaolaDepartment of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy (författare)
Correa, Patricia MatusDepartment of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile (författare)
Goodman, PatrickSchool of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland (författare)
Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo HilarioINSPER, São Paulo, Brazil (författare)
Abrutzky, RosanaUniversidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina (författare)
Osorio, SamuelDepartment of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil (författare)
Dang, Tran NgocDepartment of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam (författare)
Colistro, ValentinaDepartment of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay (författare)
Huber, VeronikaIBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain (författare)
Lee, WhanheeSchool of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea (författare)
Seposo, XerxesSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan (författare)
Honda, YasushiCenter for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (författare)
Guo, Yue LeonNationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (författare)
Bell, Michelle LSchool of the Environment, Yale University, CT, New Haven, United States (författare)
Guo, YumingDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia (författare)
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, AustraliaDepartment of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, VIC, Melbourne, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China (creator_code:org_t)

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Ingår i:The Lancet Planetary Health: Elsevier6:5, s. e410-e4212542-5196

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Av författaren/redakt...: Wu, Yao; Li, Shanshan; Zhao, Qi; Wen, Bo; Gasparrini, Anto ...; Tong, Shilu; visa fler...; Overcenco, Ala; Urban, Aleš; Schneider, Alexa ...; Entezari, Alirez ...; Vicedo-Cabrera, ...; Zanobetti, Anton ...; Analitis, Antoni ...; Zeka, Ariana; Tobias, Aurelio; Nunes, Baltazar; Alahmad, Barrak; Armstrong, Ben; Forsberg, Bertil ...; Pan, Shih-Chun; Íñiguez, Carmen; Ameling, Carolin ...; De la Cruz Valen ...; Åström, Christof ...; Houthuijs, Danny; Van Dung, Do; Royé, Dominic; Indermitte, Ene; Lavigne, Eric; Mayvaneh, Fateme ...; Acquaotta, Fiore ...; de'Donato, Franc ...; Rao, Shilpa; Sera, Francesco; Carrasco-Escobar ...; Kan, Haidong; Orru, Hans; Kim, Ho; Holobaca, Iulian ...; Kyselý, Jan; Madureira, Joana; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola, Jouni ...; Katsouyanni, Kle ...; Hurtado Diaz, Ma ...; Ragettli, Martin ...; Hashizume, Masah ...; Pascal, Mathilde; de Sousa Zanotti ...; Ortega, Nicolás ...; Ryti, Niilo; Scovronick, Noah; Michelozzi, Paol ...; Correa, Patricia ...; Goodman, Patrick; Nascimento Saldi ...; Abrutzky, Rosana; Osorio, Samuel; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Colistro, Valent ...; Huber, Veronika; Lee, Whanhee; Seposo, Xerxes; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue Leon; Bell, Michelle L; Guo, Yuming; visa färre...

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