Prediction of outcome in transsexualism by means of the Defense Mechanism Test and multivariate modeling : a pilot study.

• To elaborate the predictive value of the projective method using the Defense Mechanism Test in a 5-yr. follow-up study of 16 transsexuals, all subjects were approved for sex reassignment surgery and had completed the baseline assessments and the 5-yr. follow-up evaluation. Furthermore, we intended to create an outcome model based on the test data for prior patients wherein new consecutive applicants for sex change could be tested to predict the outcome in individual cases. Outcomes after five years showed that 62% of the transsexuals were judged as improved in a variety of areas of psychosocial functioning, 19% were unchanged, and 19% were worsened. Firstly, the analysis of the test data confirmed differences between the improved transsexuals and those who were not. Secondly, sex differences were found, with female-to-male transsexuals having a better outcome and being more homogeneous than their male counterparts. Thirdly, there was good correspondence in prediction of outcome between the model based on the Defense Mechanism Test and a clinical judgment made by a psychiatrist for two new applicants for sex reassignment surgery. It appears the Defense Mechanism Test has a predictive ability for patients with gender-identity disorder.

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