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Climate sensitivity...
Climate sensitivity of Storglaciären, Sweden : an intercomparison of mass-balance models using ERA-40 re-analysis and regional climate model data
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- Hock, Regine (författare)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft- och vattenlära,Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University
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- Radic, Valentina (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK),Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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- De Woul, Mattias (författare)
- Stockholms universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och kvartärgeologi (INK),Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2017-09-14
- 2007
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Annals of glaciology, Vol 46, 2007. - : International Glaciological Society. - 9780946417414 ; 46:1, s. 342-348
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.3...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Estimates of glacier contributions to future sea-level rise are often computed from mass-balance sensitivities derived for a set of representative glaciers. Our purpose is to investigate how mass-balance projections and sensitivities vary when using different approaches to compute the glacier mass balance. We choose Storglaciären, Sweden, as a test site and apply five different models including temperature-index and energy-balance approaches further varying in spatial discretization. The models are calibrated using daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA-40) data. We compute static mass-balance sensitivities and cumulative mass balances until 2100 based on daily temperatures predicted by a regional climate model. Net mass-balance sensitivities to a +1 K perturbation and a 10% increase in precipitation spanned from −0.41 to −0.61 and from 0.19 to 0.22 m a−1, respectively. The cumulative mass balance for the period 2002-2100 in response to the climate-model predicted temperature changes varied between −81 and −92 m for four models, but was −121 m for the fully distributed detailed energy-balance model. This indicates that mass losses may be underestimated if temperature-index methods are used instead of detailed energy-balance approaches that account for the effects of temperature changes on all energy-balance components individually. Our results suggest that future glacier predictions are sensitive to the choice of the mass-balance model broadening the spectrum in uncertainties.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- glaciologi
- Earth sciences
- Geovetenskap
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- kon (ämneskategori)
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