A Statistical Analysis of Trends for Warm and Cold Spells in Uppsala by Means of Counts

• Statistical studies of extremes are of interest in the climatic sciences, in particular trends of periods of unusually warm or cold weather, which could be labelled warm and cold spells, respectively. We study the yearly number of spells in Uppsala, Sweden which from a data-analytic point of view truly are counts, and employ theory and methods from the field of regression models for counts. A possible trend for the period 1840-2012 was investigated. The trend for warm spells is positive and demonstrated to be larger in magnitude compared with the one for cold spells, and is found to be statistically significant. The methodology could be extended to analyse other climate indicators.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

warm spell

cold spell

trend

Poisson regression

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