On the principles and factors determining the predictive success of ecosystem models, with a focus on lake eutrophication models

• If an ecosystem model is tested against an independent set of data, then the achieved r(2)-value (when modelled values are compared with empirical data (y)) will depend on the uncertainty in the empirical y-value (i.e. the uncertainty in the y-direction)

Nyckelord

ecosystem models; model uncertainty; variability in empirical data; predictive success; lake eutrophication; PHOSPHORUS; RETENTION; WATER; CAPACITY; SWEDEN; FISH

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