Improved satellite-derived PV power nowcasting using real-time power data from reference PV systems

• Rapid growth in the global penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems means electricity network operators and electricity generators alike are increasingly concerned with the short-term solar forecasting (nowcasting) of solar irradiance. This paper proposes a methodology that considers a varying number of available reference PV systems for supporting satellite-derived PV power real-time nowcasting. We evaluate conventional satellite-only and upscaling-only PV fleet estimate methodologies and compare them to two newly developed correction and hybrid cases. When using only a single reference PV system to estimate the aggregated power of 48 independent target PV systems for the location of Canberra, Australia; we show that the newly proposed correction or hybrid cases improve the performance of the satellite-derived PV power estimate medians in terms of MBE, rMBE, RMSE and rRMSE from 0.031 W/W-p, 7.46%, 0.079 W/W-p and 23.4%, down to 0.006 W/W-p,-0.711%, 0.068 W/W-p and 20.0%, representing relative improvements of 80.6%, 90.5%, 13.9% and 14.5%, respectively. Similarly, when using 30 reference PV systems, we report median improvements from 0.036 W/W-p, 8.25%, 0.083 W/W-p and 24.8%, down to 0.01 W/W-p, 1.41%, 0.049 W/W-p and 11.4%, representing relative improvements of 72.2%, 82.9%, 41.0% and 54.0%, respectively. We discuss the fundamental challenges facing the use of reference PV systems, satellite-derived power estimates, combining the two data sources, and the knowledge required to address these issues. We ultimately conclude that combining satellite-based PV power estimates with data from reference PV systems is always more beneficial than either on their own.

Ämnesord

TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER  -- Maskinteknik -- Energiteknik (hsv//swe)

ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY  -- Mechanical Engineering -- Energy Engineering (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Real-time nowcasting

Reference PV systems

PV fleet estimates

Satellite irradiance

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

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