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Deep decarbonisatio...
Deep decarbonisation pathways of the energy system in times of unprecedented uncertainty in the energy sector
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- Panos, Evangelos (författare)
- Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
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- Glynn, James (författare)
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), Columbia University, United States
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- Kypreos, Socrates (författare)
- Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland
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- Lehtilä, Antti (författare)
- VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Finland
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- Yue, Xiufeng (författare)
- School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, China
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- Ó Gallachóir, Brian (författare)
- MaREI Centre for Energy Climate and Marine, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Ireland
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- Daniels, David, 1971- (författare)
- Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut,Trafikanalys och logistik, TAL
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- Dai, Hancheng (författare)
- College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, China
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier Ltd, 2023
- 2023
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 180:September
- Relaterad länk:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://vti.diva-por... (primary) (Raw object)
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Unprecedented investments in clean energy technology are required for a net-zero carbon energy system before temperatures breach the Paris Agreement goals. By performing a Monte-Carlo Analysis with the detailed ETSAP-TIAM Integrated Assessment Model and by generating 4000 scenarios of the world's energy system, climate and economy, we find that the uncertainty surrounding technology costs, resource potentials, climate sensitivity and the level of decoupling between energy demands and economic growth influence the efficiency of climate policies and accentuate investment risks in clean energy technologies. Contrary to other studies relying on exploring the uncertainty space via model intercomparison, we find that the CO2 emissions and CO2 prices vary convexly and nonlinearly with the discount rate and climate sensitivity over time. Accounting for this uncertainty is important for designing climate policies and carbon prices to accelerate the transition. In 70% of the scenarios, a 1.5 °C temperature overshoot was within this decade, calling for immediate policy action. Delaying this action by ten years may result in 2 °C mitigation costs being similar to those required to reach the 1.5 °C target if started today, with an immediate peak in emissions, a larger uncertainty in the medium-term horizon and a higher effort for net-zero emissions.
Ämnesord
- TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER -- Naturresursteknik -- Energisystem (hsv//swe)
- ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY -- Environmental Engineering -- Energy Systems (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Clean technology investment risks
- Climate policy uncertainty
- Integrated assessment modelling
- Monte Carlo analysis
- Net-zero GHG emissions pathways
- Sector coupling
- Carbon
- Carbon dioxide
- Climate change
- Climate models
- Cost benefit analysis
- Economics
- Greenhouse gases
- Monte Carlo methods
- Risk assessment
- Risk perception
- Uncertainty analysis
- Clean technologies
- Clean technology investment risk
- Climate policy
- GHG emission
- GHGs emissions
- Integrated assessment models
- Investment risks
- Net-zero GHG emission pathway
- Technology investments
- Uncertainty
- Investments
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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