The composition and use of the Swedish car fleet : Formulation of a forecasting system

• Model-based forecasts of future emissions are important tools for findingstrategies to reach the Swedish transport policy objective concerning effecton climate and air pollution. In order for the calculated emissions to reflectthe actual situation, input data on kilometrage, vehicle types and vehicleages must be representative of the region of interest. High-quality forecastsof these variables are therefore of great importance when estimating futureemissions. This report proposes a forecasting model system for thecompositions and use of the Swedish car fleet, based on experiences fromexisting models in the literature. The system operates on two levels, anaggregated (national or regional) level and a disaggregated (household orpersonal) level. Forecasts of the total number of cars and total kilometrageare provided from the aggregated models whereas the disaggregated modelsprovide the distribution of cars of different types and ages and thedistribution of kilometrage over the same classification of cars. Theseresults are then combined to give the final outcomes: the number andkilometrage of cars of different types and ages.

Nyckelord

Emission

Forecast

Model

Fleet of vehicles

Car

Vehicle ownership

Choice

Mathematical model

Road: Environment

Road: Environment

Publikations- och innehållstyp

pop (ämneskategori)

rap (ämneskategori)