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A delayed modulatio...
A delayed modulation of solar ultraviolet radiation on the COVID-19 transmission reflects an incubation period
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He, M. S. (författare)
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- Fang, Keyan (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences
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Zhou, F. F. (författare)
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- Ou, Tinghai (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences
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- Chen, Deliang, 1961 (författare)
- Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för geovetenskaper,Department of Earth Sciences
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2022-09-30
- 2022
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Meteorological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 29:5
- Relaterad länk:
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https://gup.ub.gu.se...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Laboratory experiments have revealed the meteorological sensitivity of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus. However, no consensus has been reached about how outdoor meteorological conditions modulate the virus transmission as it is also constrained by non-meteorological conditions. Here, we identify the outbreak's evolution stage, constrained least by non-meteorological conditions, by searching the maximum correlation coefficient between the ultraviolet flux and the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases at the country level. At this least-constrained stage, the cumulative cases count around 1300-3200, and the count's daily growth rate correlates with the ultraviolet flux and temperature significantly (correlation coefficients r = -0.54 +/- 0.09 and -0.39 +/- 0.10 at p<0.01$$ p, respectively), but not with precipitation, humidity, and wind. The ultraviolet correlation exhibits a delay of about 7 days, providing a meteorological measure of the incubation period. Our work reveals a seasonality of COVID-19 and a high risk of a pandemic resurgence in winter, implying a need for seasonal adaption in public policies.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- COVID-19
- incubation period
- transmission
- ultraviolet flux
- influenza
- inactivation
- infectivity
- virus
- Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- ref (ämneskategori)
- art (ämneskategori)
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