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The effect of fores...
The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden
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- Blanco, Victor (författare)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Holzhauer, Sascha (författare)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Brown, Calum (författare)
- University of Edinburgh
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- Lagergren, Fredrik (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Vulturius, Gregor (författare)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI),University of Edinburgh
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- Lindeskog, Mats (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Rounsevell, Mark D. A. (författare)
- University of Edinburgh
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(creator_code:org_t)
- Elsevier BV, 2017
- 2017
- Engelska 35 s.
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Ingår i: Ecosystem Services. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-0416. ; 23, s. 174-208
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10...
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https://www.pure.ed....
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- The uncertain effects of climatic change and changing demands for ecosystem services on the distribution of forests and their levels of service provision require assessments of future land-use change, ecosystem service provision, and how ecosystem service demands may be met. We present CRAFTY-Sweden, an agent-based, land-use model that incorporates land owner behaviour and decision-making in modelling future ecosystem service provision in the Swedish forestry sector. Future changes were simulated under scenarios of socio-economic and climatic change between 2010 and 2100. The simulations indicate that the influence of climatic change (on land productivities) may be less important than that of socio-economic change or behavioural differences. Simulations further demonstrate that the variability in land owner and societal behaviour has a substantial role in determining the direction and impact of land-use change. The results indicate a sizeable increase in timber harvesting in coming decades, which together with a substantial decoupling between supply and demand for forest ecosystem services highlights the challenge of continuously meeting demands for ecosystem services over long periods of time. There is a clear need for model applications of this kind to better understand the variation in ecosystem service provision in the forestry sector, and other associated land-use changes.
Ämnesord
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Lantbruksvetenskap, skogsbruk och fiske -- Skogsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries -- Forest Science (hsv//eng)
- LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPER -- Annan lantbruksvetenskap -- Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap (hsv//swe)
- AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES -- Other Agricultural Sciences -- Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Agent-based modelling
- Behaviour
- Ecosystem services supply and demand
- Forestry sector
- Scenario analysis
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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