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Local colonisations...
Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability
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- Howard, C. (författare)
- Durham University
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- Lindström, Å. (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Biodiversitet,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Biodiversitet och bevarandevetenskap,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,CAnMove - Centrum för forskning om djurs spridning och flyttning,Biodiversity,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Biodiversity and Conservation Science,Lund University Research Groups,CAnMove - Centre for Animal Movement Research
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- Willis, S.G. (författare)
- Durham University
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(creator_code:org_t)
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et al
- 2023
- 2023
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species’ traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species’ range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species’ ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting. © 2023, The Author(s).
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- Animals
- Birds
- Climate Change
- Ecosystem
- bird
- breeding population
- climate change
- climate conditions
- colonization
- endangered species
- land cover
- range expansion
- article
- breeding
- climate
- expectation
- forecasting
- land use
- mass extinction
- nonhuman
- probability
- animal
- ecosystem
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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