Sökning: onr:"swepub:oai:lup.lub.lu.se:a8361172-f040-43b8-a80e-dcc88c272d43" > Reliably predicting...
Fältnamn | Indikatorer | Metadata |
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000 | 05678naa a2200601 4500 | |
001 | oai:lup.lub.lu.se:a8361172-f040-43b8-a80e-dcc88c272d43 | |
003 | SwePub | |
008 | 201102s2020 | |||||||||||000 ||eng| | |
024 | 7 | a https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/a8361172-f040-43b8-a80e-dcc88c272d432 URI |
024 | 7 | a https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.134832 DOI |
040 | a (SwePub)lu | |
041 | a engb eng | |
042 | 9 SwePub | |
072 | 7 | a art2 swepub-publicationtype |
072 | 7 | a ref2 swepub-contenttype |
100 | 1 | a Gardner, Emmau University of Reading4 aut |
245 | 1 0 | a Reliably predicting pollinator abundance : Challenges of calibrating process-based ecological models |
264 | 1 | c 2020 |
300 | a 17 s. | |
520 | a Pollination is a key ecosystem service for global agriculture but evidence of pollinator population declines is growing. Reliable spatial modelling of pollinator abundance is essential if we are to identify areas at risk of pollination service deficit and effectively target resources to support pollinator populations. Many models exist which predict pollinator abundance but few have been calibrated against observational data from multiple habitats to ensure their predictions are accurate. We selected the most advanced process-based pollinator abundance model available and calibrated it for bumblebees and solitary bees using survey data collected at 239 sites across Great Britain. We compared three versions of the model: one parameterised using estimates based on expert opinion, one where the parameters are calibrated using a purely data-driven approach and one where we allow the expert opinion estimates to inform the calibration process. All three model versions showed significant agreement with the survey data, demonstrating this model's potential to reliably map pollinator abundance. However, there were significant differences between the nesting/floral attractiveness scores obtained by the two calibration methods and from the original expert opinion scores. Our results highlight a key universal challenge of calibrating spatially explicit, process-based ecological models. Notably, the desire to reliably represent complex ecological processes in finely mapped landscapes necessarily generates a large number of parameters, which are challenging to calibrate with ecological and geographical data that are often noisy, biased, asynchronous and sometimes inaccurate. Purely data-driven calibration can therefore result in unrealistic parameter values, despite appearing to improve model-data agreement over initial expert opinion estimates. We therefore advocate a combined approach where data-driven calibration and expert opinion are integrated into an iterative Delphi-like process, which simultaneously combines model calibration and credibility assessment. This may provide the best opportunity to obtain realistic parameter estimates and reliable model predictions for ecological systems with expert knowledge gaps and patchy ecological data. | |
650 | 7 | a NATURVETENSKAPx Biologix Ekologi0 (SwePub)106112 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a NATURAL SCIENCESx Biological Sciencesx Ecology0 (SwePub)106112 hsv//eng |
650 | 7 | a LANTBRUKSVETENSKAPERx Annan lantbruksvetenskapx Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap0 (SwePub)405042 hsv//swe |
650 | 7 | a AGRICULTURAL SCIENCESx Other Agricultural Sciencesx Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use0 (SwePub)405042 hsv//eng |
653 | a calibration | |
653 | a credibility assessment | |
653 | a Delphi panels | |
653 | a ecosystem services | |
653 | a pollinators | |
653 | a process-based models | |
653 | a validation | |
700 | 1 | a Breeze, Tom D.u University of Reading4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Clough, Yannu Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)cec-ycu |
700 | 1 | a Smith, Henrik G.u Lund University,Lunds universitet,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science4 aut0 (Swepub:lu)ekol-hsm |
700 | 1 | a Baldock, Katherine C.R.u University of Bristol,Northumbria University4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Campbell, Alistairu Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Garratt, Michael P.D.u University of Reading4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Gillespie, Mark A.K.u Western Norway University of Applied Sciences,University of Leeds4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Kunin, William E.u University of Leeds4 aut |
700 | 1 | a McKerchar, Meganu University of Worcester4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Memmott, Janeu University of Bristol4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Potts, Simon G.u University of Reading4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Senapathi, Deepau University of Reading4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Stone, Graham N.u University of Edinburgh4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Wäckers, Felixu Lancaster University4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Westbury, Duncan B.u University of Worcester4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Wilby, Andrewu Lancaster University4 aut |
700 | 1 | a Oliver, Tom H.u University of Reading4 aut |
710 | 2 | a University of Readingb BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate4 org |
773 | 0 | t Methods in Ecology and Evolutiong 11:12, s. 1673-1689q 11:12<1673-1689x 2041-210X |
856 | 4 | u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13483x freey FULLTEXT |
856 | 4 8 | u https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/a8361172-f040-43b8-a80e-dcc88c272d43 |
856 | 4 8 | u https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13483 |
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