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The future distribu...
The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
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- Soultan, Alaaeldin (författare)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology
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- Pavón-Jordán, Diego (författare)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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- Bradter, Ute (författare)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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visa fler...
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- Sandercock, Brett K. (författare)
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
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- Hochachka, Wesley M. (författare)
- Cornell Lab of Ornithology
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- Johnston, Alison (författare)
- University of Cambridge,Cornell Lab of Ornithology
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- Brommer, Jon (författare)
- University of Turku
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- Gaget, Elie (författare)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,University of Turku
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- Keller, Verena (författare)
- The Swiss Ornithological Institute
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- Knaus, Peter (författare)
- The Swiss Ornithological Institute
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Aghababyan, Karen (författare)
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Maxhuni, Qenan (författare)
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Vintchevski, Alexandre (författare)
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- Nagy, Károly (författare)
- Hungarian Ornithological and Nature Conservation Society (Birdlife Hungary)
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Raudonikis, Liutauras (författare)
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- Balmer, Dawn (författare)
- British Trust for Ornithology
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- Noble, David (författare)
- British Trust for Ornithology
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Leitão, Domingos (författare)
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Øien, Ingar Jostein (författare)
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- Shimmings, Paul (författare)
- BirdLife Norway
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Sultanov, Elchin (författare)
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- Caffrey, Brian (författare)
- BirdWatch Ireland
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Boyla, Kerem (författare)
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- Radišić, Dimitrije (författare)
- University of Novi Sad
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- Lindström, Åke (författare)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Biodiversitet,Biologiska institutionen,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,BECC: Biodiversity and Ecosystem services in a Changing Climate,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Biodiversitet och bevarandevetenskap,Forskargrupper vid Lunds universitet,Biodiversity,Department of Biology,Faculty of Science,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Biodiversity and Conservation Science,Lund University Research Groups
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- Velevski, Metodija (författare)
- Macedonian Ecological Society
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Pladevall, Clara (författare)
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- Brotons, Lluís (författare)
- Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry (CERAF),Forest Technology Centre of Catalonia,CSIC Spanish National Research Council
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- Karel, Šťastny (författare)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
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Rajković, Drazenko Z. (författare)
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- Chodkiewicz, Tomasz (författare)
- Institute - Center for Molecular and Macromolecular Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences,Polish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP)
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- Wilk, Tomasz (författare)
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP)
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Szép, Tibor (författare)
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- Van Turnhout, Chris (författare)
- Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology,Radboud University Nijmegen
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- Foppen, Ruud (författare)
- Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology,Radboud University Nijmegen
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- Burfield, Ian (författare)
- BirdLife International
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Vikstrøm, Thomas (författare)
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Mazal, Vlatka Dumbovic (författare)
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- Eaton, Mark (författare)
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
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Vorisek, Petr (författare)
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- Lehikoinen, Aleksi (författare)
- Finnish Museum of Natural History
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- Herrando, Sergi (författare)
- Forest Technology Centre of Catalonia,Natural History Museum of Barcelona
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Kuzmenko, Tatiana (författare)
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- Bauer, Hans Günther (författare)
- Max-Planck Institute of Animal Behavior
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- Kalyakin, Mikhail V. (författare)
- Sternberg Astronomical Institute
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- Voltzit, Olga V. (författare)
- Sternberg Astronomical Institute
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Sjeničić, Jovica (författare)
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- Pärt, Tomas (författare)
- Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Institutionen för ekologi,Department of Ecology
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(creator_code:org_t)
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- 2022-02-10
- 2022
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
- Relaterad länk:
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http://dx.doi.org/10... (free)
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://pub.epsilon.... (primary) (Raw object) (free)
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https://lup.lub.lu.s...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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https://res.slu.se/i...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
Stäng
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
Ämnesord
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi -- Ekologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences -- Ecology (hsv//eng)
Nyckelord
- breeding distributions
- climate change
- European Breeding Bird Atlas
- land-use change
- species distribution models
Publikations- och innehållstyp
- art (ämneskategori)
- ref (ämneskategori)
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Soultan, Alaaeld ...
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Pavón-Jordán, Di ...
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Bradter, Ute
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Sandercock, Bret ...
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Hochachka, Wesle ...
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Johnston, Alison
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visa fler...
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Brommer, Jon
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Gaget, Elie
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Keller, Verena
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Knaus, Peter
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Aghababyan, Kare ...
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Maxhuni, Qenan
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Vintchevski, Ale ...
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Nagy, Károly
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Raudonikis, Liut ...
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Balmer, Dawn
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Noble, David
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Leitão, Domingos
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Øien, Ingar Jost ...
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Shimmings, Paul
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Sultanov, Elchin
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Caffrey, Brian
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Boyla, Kerem
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Radišić, Dimitri ...
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Lindström, Åke
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Velevski, Metodi ...
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Pladevall, Clara
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Brotons, Lluís
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Karel, Šťastny
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Rajković, Drazen ...
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Chodkiewicz, Tom ...
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Wilk, Tomasz
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Szép, Tibor
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Van Turnhout, Ch ...
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Foppen, Ruud
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Burfield, Ian
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Vikstrøm, Thomas
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Mazal, Vlatka Du ...
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Eaton, Mark
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Vorisek, Petr
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Lehikoinen, Alek ...
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Herrando, Sergi
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Kuzmenko, Tatian ...
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Bauer, Hans Günt ...
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Kalyakin, Mikhai ...
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Voltzit, Olga V.
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Sjeničić, Jovica
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Pärt, Tomas
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