Short-term prediction of secondary progression in a sliding window: A test of a predicting algorithm in a validation cohort

• Introduction: The Multiple Sclerosis Prediction Score (MSPS, www.msprediction.com) estimates, for any month during the course of relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), the individual risk of transition to secondary progression (SP) during the following year. Objective: Internal verification of the MSPS algorithm in a derivation cohort, the Gothenburg Incidence Cohort (GIC, n = 144) and external verification in the Uppsala MS cohort (UMS, n = 145). Methods: Starting from their second relapse, patients were included and followed for 25 years. A matrix of MSPS values was created. From this matrix, a goodness-of-fit test and suitable diagnostic plots were derived to compare MSPS-calculated and observed outcomes (i.e. transition to SP). Results: The median time to SP was slightly longer in the UMS than in the GIC, 15 vs. 11.5 years (p = 0.19). The MSPS was calibrated with multiplicative factors: 0.599 for the UMS and 0.829 for the GIC; the calibrated MSPS provided a good fit between expected and observed outcomes (chi-square p = 0.61 for the UMS), which indicated the model was not rejected. Conclusion: The results suggest that the MSPS has clinically relevant generalizability in new cohorts, provided that the MSPS was calibrated to the actual overall SP incidence in the cohort.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Urologi och njurmedicin (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Urology and Nephrology (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Reumatologi och inflammation (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Rheumatology and Autoimmunity (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Kardiologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Medicinska och farmaceutiska grundvetenskaper -- Neurovetenskaper (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Basic Medicine -- Neurosciences (hsv//eng)

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Neurologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Neurology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

Epidemiology

progressive

multiple sclerosis

relapsing/remitting

outcome measurement

Epidemiology

multiple sclerosis

outcome measurement

progressive

relapsing/remitting

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