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- Wahlström, Helene, et al.
(author)
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Surveillance system sensitivities and probability of freedom from Mycobacterium avium subsp paratuberculosis infection in Swedish cattle
- 2013
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In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5877 .- 1873-1716. ; 108, s. 47-62
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Previous investigations suggest that the prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in Swedish cattle is low and all recent cases have been linked to imported animals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the surveillance system for MAP infection in Swedish cattle and to estimate the probability that the Swedish cattle population is free from this infection. Calculations of surveillance sensitivities and probability of freedom were made using stochastic scenario-tree modelling, which allows inclusion of information from several different sources, of complex surveillance data including results from non-representative sampling, as well as of documentations of differences in risk of being infected. The surveillance components included in the model were: (1) clinical surveillance, (2) fallen stock investigations, (3) the national surveillance programme (mainly beef herds), (4) a survey involving dairy herds and (5) a risk-based survey targeting herds with imported cattle. Previous or current presence of imported animals and participation in the on-going control programme was specified for each tested herd, in order to adjust for differences in risk. Calculations were made for each year from the start of 2005 to the end of 2008, and this formed the basis for a final estimate covering the whole study period and predictions of future probabilities of freedom from MAP. Results show that when applying a design prevalence of one animal in 0.1% of the herds, the probability of freedom at the end of 2008 was 0.63. At the design prevalence of one animal in 0.5% of herds, the estimated probability is >95% and it is demonstrated that the prevalence of MAP in Swedish cattle is below this level or absent. In order to increase the annual surveillance sensitivity in the future and thereby improve the probability of freedom, new surveillance activities or an intensification of current ones are needed. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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- Ågren, Estelle, et al.
(author)
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A questionnaire study of associations between potential risk factors and salmonella status in Swedish dairy herds
- 2017
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In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5877 .- 1873-1716. ; 143, s. 21-29
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this study associations between potential risk factors and salmonella status in Swedish dairy herds were investigated. A case-control study design was used, including existing as well as new cases. Herds were assigned a salmonella status on the basis of antibody analysis of bulk milk samples. Information on potential risk factors was collected from registry data and from farmers via a questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations between salmonella status and potential risk factors. In addition, multivariate analysis with Additive Bayesian Network (ABN) modelling was performed to improve understanding of the complex relationship between all the variables. Because of the difficulty in identifying associations between potential risk factors and infections with low prevalence and a large regional variation, exposure of potential risk factors in the high-prevalence region (Oland) were compared to exposure in other regions in Sweden.In total 483 of 996 (48%) farmers responded to the questionnaire, 69 herds had test-positive bulk milk samples. The strongest association with salmonella status was 'presence of salmonella test-positive herds <5 km' (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.0-9.4). Associations with salmonella status were also seen between 'feeding calves residue milk only' (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.6), 'certified organic herds' (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2-4.9) and 'frequently seeing signs of rodents' (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.13-0.97). The ABN model showed associations between Oland and four of the variables: salmonella status, presence of test-positive herds <5 km, shared pastures and providing protective clothing for visitors. The latter is probably a reflection of increased disease awareness in Oland. The ABN model showed associations between herd size and housing as well as several management procedures. This provides an explanation why herd size frequently has been identified as a risk factor for salmonella by other studies.The study confirms the importance of local transmission routes for salmonella, but does not identify specific components in this local spread. Therefore, it supports the use of a broad biosecurity approach in the prevention of salmonella. In Oland, some potential risk factors are more common than in other parts of Sweden. Theoretically these could contribute to the spread of salmonella, but this was not confirmed in the present study. The study also highlights the difficulty in identifying associations between potential risk factors and infections with low prevalence and large regional variation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Ågren, Estelle, et al.
(author)
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Evaluation of herd-level sampling strategies for control of Salmonella in Swedish cattle
- 2018
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In: Journal of Dairy Science. - : American Dairy Science Association. - 0022-0302 .- 1525-3198. ; 101, s. 10177-10190
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Based on Swedish legislation, all herds where Salmonella of any serotype is detected are put under restrictions, and measures aiming at eradication are required. Costs for sampling and control have increased in recent years and the aim of this study was to investigate the efficiency of different sampling strategies. We also compiled test results from recent surveillance activities and used these to complement and compare with calculated results. Sensitivities and specificities at group and herd level were calculated for different test strategies. A scenario-tree modeling approach was used to account for the hierarchy of animals within herds, and different relative risk of salmonella in different age groups. Negative and positive predictive values (NPV and PPV), and probability of freedom from Salmonella were calculated to compare the added value of different sampling strategies. Results showed that more fecal samples than serological samples per group are needed to reach a group sensitivity >0.50. This also means that serological testing leads to a higher NPV. For example, with 10 negative test-results from a group of 25 animals in a herd with a suspicion of Salmonella, the NPV based on serology was 0.75 and based on culture was 0.56. For the PPV, testing based on culture from fecal sampling was superior, as specificity of such testing was close to perfect. By changing the threshold for considering a group positive, from 1 test-positive animal to 2, the PPV of serological results could be increased without substantial loss in NPV. The herd sensitivity based on (1) bulk milk sampling, (2) fecal sampling of all animals, and (3) bulk milk sampling and individual sera from 20 animals within each age group was 0.53, 0.88, and 0.95, respectively. In low-prevalence regions, this sensitivity was enough to verify a high probability of freedom (>0.99), as the probability of infection in such Swedish regions has been shown to be 0.01. For herds with a higher prior probability of infection, repeated sampling (2-9 sampling occasions) was needed to reach the same level of confidence. Analysis of surveillance data indicated that boot swabs can be used to replace the standard fecal sampling presently used in Sweden. It was also confirmed that the individual specificity of the tests used for serological testing of Swedish calves is high (0.99). The results can form a basis for fit-for-purpose testing strategies (e.g., surveillance or prepurchase testing).
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| 5. |
- Ågren, Estelle, et al.
(author)
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Factors affecting costs for on-farm control of salmonella in Swedish dairy herds
- 2015
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In: Acta Veterinaria Scandinavica. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-605X .- 1751-0147. ; 57
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The Swedish control program for salmonella includes restrictions and on-farm control measures when salmonella is detected in a herd. Required control measures are subsidised by the government. This provides an opportunity to study costs for on-farm salmonella control. The aim of this study was to describe the costs for on-farm salmonella control in Swedish cattle herds and to investigate the effects of herd factors on these costs in dairy herds. Results: During the 15 years studied there had been a total of 124 restriction periods in 118 cattle herds; 89 dairy herds, 28 specialised fattening herds and three suckler herds. The average costs per herd for on-farm salmonella control was 4.60 million SEK with a median of 1.06 million SEK corresponding to approximately 490 000 and 110 000 EUR. The range was 0.01 to 41 million SEK corresponding to 1080 EUR to 4.44 million EUR per farm. The costs cover measures required in herd-specific control plans, generally measures improving herd hygiene. A mixed linear model was used to investigate associations between herd factors and costs for on-farm salmonella control in dairy herds. Herd size and length of the restriction period were both significantly associated with costs for on-farm control of salmonella with larger herds and longer periods of restrictions leading to higher costs. Serotype detected and administrative changes in the Swedish Board of Agriculture aiming at reducing costs were not associated with costs for on-farm salmonella control. Conclusions: On-farm control of salmonella in Swedish cattle herds incurred high costs but the costs also varied largely between herds. Larger herds and longer restriction periods increased the costs for on-farm control of salmonella in Swedish dairy herds. This causes concern for future costs for the Swedish salmonella control program as herd sizes are increasing.
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| 6. |
- Ågren, Estelle, et al.
(author)
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Low prevalence of Salmonella in Swedish dairy herds highlight differences between serotypes
- 2016
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In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5877 .- 1873-1716. ; 125, s. 38-45
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Legislated Salmonella control in Sweden has been in place since the 1960s. The purpose of this study was to investigate presence of Salmonella antibodies in dairy cattle herds and to provide a basis for decisions on how surveillance and control can be improved. Bulk milk samples from all Swedish dairy herds (n = 4 683) were analysed with two different ELISAs; one detecting antibodies against Salmonella Dublin (Dublin ELISA), and one detecting antibodies against several of the serotypes causing bovine salmonellosis including S. Dublin (Bovine ELISA). Information about herds, i.e. geographical location, local animal density, number of test positive herds within 5 km, animal trade and herd size, was based on register data. The results confirm a very low prevalence of Salmonella in Swedish dairy herds throughout the country with the exception of an island in the southeast. The test positive herds split into two groups; 41 herds (1%) positive in the Dublin ELISA, and 101 herds (2%) positive in the Bovine ELISA but negative in the Dublin ELISA. Geographical location of positive herds, and comparison of the results of the screening with serotypes previously isolated from some of the herds, indicated that the first group represents herds presently or previously infected with S. Dublin while the second group represents herds presently or previously infected with other serotypes. Differences in serological status between herds in different regions, of different size, with different animal purchase patterns et cetera, were tested using logistic regression. Presence of positive herds within 5 km was significantly associated to testing positive. For herds testing positive in the Dublin ELISA, significant associations were also seen with herd size. Purchase of animals during the last year was not significantly associated with the outcome in the final models. We conclude that for future surveillance, the Bovine ELISA can be used to help in identifying infected herds, and the Dublin ELISA can be used to distinguish herds with S. Dublin infections. The geographical clustering of test positive herds could facilitate future surveillance and disease control interventions. The results highlight differences between S. Dublin and other serotypes, e.g. concerning prevalence and degree of geographical clustering. Further studies on risk factors and potential local spread of Salmonella is warranted, particularly in the regions with clustering of S. Dublin infected herds.
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