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- Blach, S., et al.
(author)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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- Surendran, Praveen, et al.
(author)
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Discovery of rare variants associated with blood pressure regulation through meta-analysis of 1.3 million individuals
- 2020
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 52:12, s. 1314-1332
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency <= 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.
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- Abdulla, N., et al.
(author)
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Epidemiology of hip fracture in Qatar and development of a country specific FRAX model
- 2022
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In: Archives of Osteoporosis. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1862-3522 .- 1862-3514. ; 17:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A Summary Hip fracture data were retrieved from electronical medical records for the years 2017-2019 in the State of Qatar and used to create a FRAX (R) model to facilitate fracture risk assessment. Hip fracture rates were comparable with estimates from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait but fracture probabilities varied due to differences in mortality. Objective This paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in the State of Qatar that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX (R) tool. Methods Hip fracture data were retrieved from electronic medical records for the years 2017-2019 in the State of Qatar. The age and sex specific incidence of hip fracture in Qatari residents and national mortality rates were used to create a FRAX (R) model. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighboring countries having FRAX models. Results Hip fracture rates were comparable with estimates from Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait. In contrast, probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture or hip fracture were lower in Qatar than in Kuwait but higher than those in Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia due to differences in mortality. Conclusion The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Qatari population and help guide decisions about treatment.
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