| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Neves, Ana Luisa, et al.
(author)
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Determinants of the Use of Health and Fitness Mobile Apps by Patients With Asthma : Secondary Analysis of Observational Studies
- 2021
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In: Journal of Medical Internet Research. - : JMIR Publications. - 1438-8871. ; 23:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Health and fitness apps have potential benefits to improve self-management and disease control among patients with asthma. However, inconsistent use rates have been reported across studies, regions, and health systems. A better understanding of the characteristics of users and nonusers is critical to design solutions that are effectively integrated in patients' daily lives, and to ensure that these equitably reach out to different groups of patients, thus improving rather than entrenching health inequities. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the use of general health and fitness apps by patients with asthma and to identify determinants of usage. Methods: A secondary analysis of the INSPIRERS observational studies was conducted using data from face-to-face visits. Patients with a diagnosis of asthma were included between November 2017 and August 2020. Individual-level data were collected, including age, gender, marital status, educational level, health status, presence of anxiety and depression, postcode, socioeconomic level, digital literacy, use of health services, and use of health and fitness apps. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model the probability of being a health and fitness app user. Statistical analysis was performed in R. Results: A total of 526 patients attended a face-to-face visit in the 49 recruiting centers and 514 had complete data. Most participants were <= 40 years old (66.4%), had at least 10 years of education (57.4%), and were in the 3 higher quintiles of the socioeconomic deprivation index (70.1%). The majority reported an overall good health status (visual analogue scale [VAS] score>70 in 93.1%) and the prevalence of anxiety and depression was 34.3% and 11.9%, respectively. The proportion of participants who reported using health and fitness mobile apps was 41.1% (n=211). Multivariate models revealed that single individuals and those with more than 10 years of education are more likely to use health and fitness mobile apps (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.22, 95%CI 1.05-4.75 and aOR 1.95, 95%CI 1.12-3.45, respectively). Higher digital literacy scores were also associated with higher odds of being a user of health and fitness apps, with participants in the second, third, and fourth quartiles reporting aORs of 6.74 (95%CI 2.90-17.40), 10.30 (95%CI 4.28-27.56), and 11.52 (95%CI 4.78-30.87), respectively. Participants with depression symptoms had lower odds of using health and fitness apps (aOR 0.32, 95%CI 0.12-0.83). Conclusions: A better understanding of the barriers and enhancers of app use among patients with lower education, lower digital literacy, or depressive symptoms is key to design tailored interventions to ensure a sustained and equitable use of these technologies. Future studies should also assess users' general health-seeking behavior and their interest and concerns specifically about digital tools. These factors may impact both initial engagement and sustained use.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Jacome, Cristina, et al.
(author)
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Monitoring Adherence to Asthma Inhalers Using the InspirerMundi App : Analysis of Real-World, Medium-Term Feasibility Studies
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Medical Technology. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2673-3129. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Poor medication adherence is a major challenge in asthma and objective assessment of inhaler adherence is needed. InspirerMundi app aims to monitor inhaler adherence while turning it into a positive experience through gamification and social support.Objective: We assessed the medium-term feasibility of the InspirerMundi app to monitor inhaler adherence in real-world patients with persistent asthma (treated with daily inhaled medication). In addition, we attempted to identify the characteristics of the patients related to higher app use.Methods: Two real-world multicenter observational studies, with one initial face-to-face visit and a 4-month telephone interview, were conducted in 29 secondary care centers from Portugal. During an initial face-to-face visit, patients were invited to use the app daily to register their asthma medication intakes. A scheduled intake was considered taken when patients took a photo of the medication (inhaler, blister, or others) using the image-based medication detection tool. Medication adherence was calculated as the number of doses taken as a percentage of the number scheduled. Interacting with the app =30 days was used as the cut-off for higher app use.Results: A total of 114 patients {median 20 [percentile 25 to percentile 75 (P25-P75) 16-36] years, 62% adults} were invited, 107 (94%) installed the app and 83 (73%) completed the 4-month interview. Patients interacted with the app for a median of 18 [3-45] days, translated on a median use rate of 15 [3-38]%. Median inhaler adherence assessed through the app was 34 [4-73]% when considering all scheduled inhalations for the study period. Inhaler adherence assessed was not significantly correlated with self-reported estimates. Median adherence for oral and other medication was 41 [6-83]% and 43 [3-73]%, respectively. Patients with higher app use were slightly older (p = 0.012), more frequently taking medication for other health conditions (p = 0.040), and more frequently prescribed long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMA, p = 0.024). After 4 months, Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test (CARAT) scores improved (p < 0.001), but no differences between patients interacting with the app for 30 days or less were seen.Conclusions: The InspirerMundi app was feasible to monitor inhaler adherence in patients with persistent asthma. The persistent use of this mHealth technology varies widely. A better understanding of characteristics related to higher app use is still needed before effectiveness studies are undertaken.
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| 7. |
- Casanueva, Felipe F., et al.
(author)
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Criteria for the definition of Pituitary Tumor Centers of Excellence (PTCOE): A Pituitary Society Statement
- 2017
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In: Pituitary. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1386-341X .- 1573-7403. ; 20, s. 489-498
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 2017, The Author(s). Introduction: With the goal of generate uniform criteria among centers dealing with pituitary tumors and to enhance patient care, the Pituitary Society decided to generate criteria for developing Pituitary Tumors Centers of Excellence (PTCOE). Methods: To develop that task, a group of ten experts served as a Task Force and through two years of iterative work an initial draft was elaborated. This draft was discussed, modified and finally approved by the Board of Directors of the Pituitary Society. Such document was presented and debated at a specific session of the Congress of the Pituitary Society, Orlando 2017, and suggestions were incorporated. Finally the document was distributed to a large group of global experts that introduced further modifications with final endorsement. Results: After five years of iterative work a document with the ideal criteria for a PTCOE is presented. Conclusions: Acknowledging that very few centers in the world, if any, likely fulfill the requirements here presented, the document may be a tool to guide improvements of care delivery to patients with pituitary disorders. All these criteria must be accommodated to the regulations and organization of Health of a given country.
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| 8. |
- Majellaro, María, et al.
(author)
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3,4-Dihydropyrimidin-2(1H)-ones as Antagonists of the Human A2B Adenosine Receptor : Optimization, Structure–Activity Relationship Studies, and Enantiospecific Recognition
- 2021
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In: Journal of Medicinal Chemistry. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0022-2623 .- 1520-4804. ; 64:1, s. 458-480
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present and thoroughly characterize a large collection of 3,4-dihydropyrimidin-2(1H)-ones as A2BAR antagonists, an emerging strategy in cancer (immuno) therapy. Most compounds selectively bind A2BAR, with a number of potent and selective antagonists further confirmed by functional cyclic adenosine monophosphate experiments. The series was analyzed with one of the most exhaustive free energy perturbation studies on a GPCR, obtaining an accurate model of the structure–activity relationship of this chemotype. The stereospecific binding modeled for this scaffold was confirmed by resolving the two most potent ligands [(±)-47, and (±)-38Ki = 10.20 and 23.6 nM, respectively] into their two enantiomers, isolating the affinity on the corresponding (S)-eutomers (Ki = 6.30 and 11.10 nM, respectively). The assessment of the effect in representative cytochromes (CYP3A4 and CYP2D6) demonstrated insignificant inhibitory activity, while in vitro experiments in three prostate cancer cells demonstrated that this pair of compounds exhibits a pronounced antimetastatic effect.
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| 9. |
- Simoes Cunha, Mafalda, et al.
(author)
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Symptoms of anxiety and depression in patients with persistent asthma : a cross-sectional analysis of the INSPIRERS studies
- 2023
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In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 13:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- ObjectivesAnxiety and depression are relevant comorbidities in asthma, but, in Portugal and Spain, data on this topic are scarce. We assessed, in patients with asthma, the frequency of anxiety and depression using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the European Quality of Life Five Dimension Questionnaire (EQ-5D); the level of agreement between these questionnaires, and the factors associated with these symptoms.MethodsThis is a secondary analysis of the INSPIRERS studies. A total of 614 adolescents and adults with persistent asthma (32.6 +/- 16.9 years, 64.7% female) were recruited from 30 primary care centres and 32 allergy, pulmonology and paediatric clinics. Demographic and clinical characteristics, HADS and EQ-5D were collected. A score >= 8 on Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Anxiety/Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Depression or a positive answer to EQ-5D item 5 indicated the presence of these symptoms. Agreement was determined by Cohen's kappa. Two multivariable logistic regressions were built.ResultsAccording to HADS, 36% of the participants had symptoms of anxiety and 12% of depression. According to EQ-5D, 36% of the participants had anxiety/depression. The agreement between questionnaires in identifying anxiety/depression was moderate (k=0.55, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.62). Late asthma diagnosis, comorbidities and female gender were predictors of anxiety/depression, while better asthma control, health-related quality of life and perception of health were associated with lower odds for anxiety/depression.ConclusionAt least 1/3 of the patients with persistent asthma experience symptoms of anxiety/depression, showing the relevance of screening these disorders in patients with asthma. EQ-5D and HADS questionnaires showed a moderate agreement in the identification of anxiety/depression symptoms. The identified associated factors need to be further investigated in long-term studies.
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| 10. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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