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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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| 3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 4. |
- Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., et al.
(author)
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State of the climate in 2014
- 2015
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In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 96
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.
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| 5. |
- Reed, Shelby D., et al.
(author)
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Longitudinal medical resources and costs among type 2 diabetes patients participating in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS)
- 2018
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In: Diabetes, obesity and metabolism. - : WILEY. - 1462-8902 .- 1463-1326. ; 20:7, s. 1732-1739
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: TECOS, a cardiovascular safety trial (identifier: NCT00790205) involving 14 671 patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, demonstrated that sitagliptin was non-inferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome when added to best usual care. This study tested hypotheses that medical resource use and costs differed between these 2 treatment strategies. Materials and methods: Information concerning medical resource use was collected on case report forms throughout the trial and was valued using US costs for: Medicare payments for hospitalizations, medical procedures and outpatient visits, and wholesale acquisition costs (WAC) for diabetes-related medications. Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to compare resource use and US costs, accounting for variable intercountry practice patterns. Sensitivity analyses included resource valuation using English costs for a UK perspective. Results: There were no significant differences in hospitalizations, inpatient days, medical procedures, or outpatient visits during follow-up (mean and median 3.0 years in both groups). Hospitalization rates appeared to diverge after 2 years, with lower rates among sitagliptin-treated vs placebo patients after 2.5 years (relative rate, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.97]; P = .01). Mean medical costs, exclusive of study medication, were 11 937 USD in the sitagliptin arm and 12 409 USD in the placebo arm (P = .06). Mean sitagliptin costs based on undiscounted WAC were 9978 USD per patient. Differential UK total costs including study drug costs were smaller (911 GBP), primarily because of lower mean costs for sitagliptin (1072 GBP). Conclusions: Lower hospitalization rates across time with sitagliptin slightly offset sitagliptin treatment costs over 3 years in type 2 diabetes patients at high risk for cardiovascular events.
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| 6. |
- Adler, Eric D., et al.
(author)
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Improving risk prediction in heart failure using machine learning
- 2020
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In: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 22:1, s. 139-147
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Predicting mortality is important in patients with heart failure (HF). However, current strategies for predicting risk are only modestly successful, likely because they are derived from statistical analysis methods that fail to capture prognostic information in large data sets containing multi-dimensional interactions. Methods and results: We used a machine learning algorithm to capture correlations between patient characteristics and mortality. A model was built by training a boosted decision tree algorithm to relate a subset of the patient data with a very high or very low mortality risk in a cohort of 5822 hospitalized and ambulatory patients with HF. From this model we derived a risk score that accurately discriminated between low and high-risk of death by identifying eight variables (diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, haemoglobin, white blood cell count, platelets, albumin, and red blood cell distribution width). This risk score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 and was predictive across the full spectrum of risk. External validation in two separate HF populations gave AUCs of 0.84 and 0.81, which were superior to those obtained with two available risk scores in these same populations. Conclusions: Using machine learning and readily available variables, we generated and validated a mortality risk score in patients with HF that was more accurate than other risk scores to which it was compared. These results support the use of this machine learning approach for the evaluation of patients with HF and in other settings where predicting risk has been challenging.
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| 7. |
- Ammirati, Enrico, et al.
(author)
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Acute Myocarditis Associated With Desmosomal Gene Variants
- 2022
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In: JACC. Heart failure. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 2213-1779 .- 2213-1787. ; 10:10, s. 714-727
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND The risk of adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute myocarditis (AM) and desmosomal gene variants (DGV) remains unknown.OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to ascertain the risk of death, ventricular arrhythmias, recurrent myocarditis, and heart failure (main endpoint) in patients with AM and pathogenic or likely pathogenetic DGV.METHODS In a retrospective international study from 23 hospitals, 97 patients were included: 36 with AM and DGV (DGV[+]), 25 with AM and negative gene testing (DGV[-]), and 36 with AM without genetics testing. All patients had troponin elevation plus findings consistent with AM on histology or at cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). In 86 patients, CMR changes in function and structure were re-assessed at follow-up.RESULTS In the DGV(+) AM group (88.9% DSP variants), median age was 24 years, 91.7% presented with chest pain, and median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 56% on CMR (P = NS vs the other 2 groups). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a higher risk of the main endpoint in DGV(+) AM compared with DGV(-) and without genetics testing patients (62.3% vs 17.5% vs 5.3% at 5 years, respectively; P < 0.0001), driven by myocarditis recurrence and ventricular arrhythmias. At follow-up CMR, a higher number of late gadolinium enhanced segments was found in DGV(+) AM. CONCLUSIONS Patients with AM and evidence of DGV have a higher incidence of adverse cardiovascular events compared with patients with AM without DGV. Further prospective studies are needed to ascertain if genetic testing might improve risk stratification of patients with AM who are considered at low risk. (J Am Coll Cardiol HF 2022;10:714-727) (c) 2022 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.
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| 8. |
- Ammirati, Enrico, et al.
(author)
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Fulminant Versus Acute Nonfulminant Myocarditis in Patients With Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction
- 2019
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In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 74:3, s. 299-311
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Fulminant myocarditis (FM) is a form of acute myocarditis characterized by severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction requiring inotropes and/or mechanical circulatory support. A single-center study found that a patient with FM had better outcomes than those with acute nonfulminant myocarditis (NFM) presenting with left ventricular systolic dysfunction, but otherwise hemodynamically stable. This was recently challenged, so disagreement still exists. Objectives: This study sought to provide additional evidence on the outcome of FM and to ascertain whether patient stratification based on the main histologic subtypes can provide additional prognostic information. Methods: A total of 220 patients (median age 42 years, 46.3% female) with histologically proven acute myocarditis (onset of symptoms <30 days) all presenting with left ventricular systolic dysfunction were included in a retrospective, international registry comprising 16 tertiary hospitals in the United States, Europe, and Japan. The main endpoint was the occurrence of cardiac death or heart transplantation within 60 days from admission and at long-term follow-up. Results: Patients with FM (n = 165) had significantly higher rates of cardiac death and heart transplantation compared with those with NFM (n = 55), both at 60 days (28.0% vs. 1.8%, p = 0.0001) and at 7-year follow-up (47.7% vs. 10.4%, p < 0.0001). Using Cox multivariate analysis, the histologic subtype emerged as a further variable affecting the outcome in FM patients, with giant cell myocarditis having a significantly worse prognosis compared with eosinophilic and lymphocytic myocarditis. In a subanalysis including only adults with lymphocytic myocarditis, the main endpoints occurred more frequently in FM compared with in NFM both at 60 days (19.5% vs. 0%, p = 0.005) and at 7-year follow up (41.4% vs. 3.1%, p = 0.0004). Conclusions: This international registry confirms that patients with FM have higher rates of cardiac death and heart transplantation both in the short- and long-term compared with patients with NFM. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the histologic subtype of FM carries independent prognostic value, highlighting the need for timely endomyocardial biopsy in this condition.
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| 10. |
- Ammirati, Enrico, et al.
(author)
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Outcome of patients on heart transplant list treated with a continuous-flow left ventricular assist device : Insights from the TRans-Atlantic registry on VAd and TrAnsplant (TRAViATA)
- 2021
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In: International Journal of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5273. ; 324
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Geographic variations in management and outcomes of individuals supported by continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices (CF-LVAD) between the United States (US) and Europe (EU) is largely unknown. Methods: We created a retrospective, multinational registry of 524 patients who received a CF-LVAD (either HVAD or Heartmate II) between January 2008 and April 2017. Follow up spanned from date of CF-LVAD implant to post-HTx period with a median follow up of 44.8 months. Results: The cohort included 299 (57.1%) EU and 225 (42.9%) US patients. Although the US cohort was significantly older with a higher prevalence of comorbidities, survival was similar between the cohorts (US 63.1%, EU 68.4% at 5 years, unadjusted log-rank test p = 0.43).Multivariate analyses suggested that older age, higher body mass index, elevated creatinine, use of temporary mechanical circulatory support prior CF-LVAD, and implantation of HVAD were associated with increased mortality. Among CF-LVAD patients undergoing HTx, the median time on CF-LVAD support was shorter in the US, meanwhile US donors were younger. Finally, the pattern of adverse events (stroke, gastrointestinal bleedings, late right ventricular failure, and driveline infection) during support differed significantly between US and EU. Conclusions: Although waitlisted patients in the US on CF-LVAD have higher risk comorbid conditions, the overall outcome is similar in US and EU. Geographic variations with regards to donor characteristics, duration of CF-LVAD support prior to transplant, and adverse events on support can explain the disparity in the utilization of mechanical bridge to transplant strategy between US and EU.
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