| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, et al.
(author)
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Injection of CO2-saturated brine in geological reservoir : A way to enhanced storage safety
- 2016
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In: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier. - 1750-5836 .- 1878-0148. ; 54, s. 129-144
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Injection of free-phase supercritical CO2 into deep geological reservoirs is associated with risk of considerable return flows towards the land surface due to the buoyancy of CO2, which is lighter than the resident brine in the reservoir. Such upward movements can be avoided if CO2 is injected in the dissolved phase (CO2aq). In this work, injection of CO2-saturated brine in a subsurface carbonate reservoir was modelled. Physical and geochemical interactions of injected low-pH CO2-saturated brine with the carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite and siderite) were investigated in the reactive transport modelling. CO2-saturated brine, being low in pH, showed high reactivity with the reservoir minerals, resulting in a significant mineral dissolution and CO2 conversion in reactions. Over the injection period of 10 yr, up to 16% of the injected CO2 was found consumed in geochemical reactions. Sorption included in the transport analysis resulted in additional quantities of CO2 mass stored. However, for the considered carbonate minerals, the consumption of injected CO2aq was found mainly in the form of ionic trapping.
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| 4. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Injection of CO2-saturated brine in geological reservoir : A way to enhanced storage safety
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Injection of free phase supercritical CO2 into deep geological reservoirs is associated with risk of considerable return flows towards the land surface due to the buoyancy of CO2, which is lighter than the resident brine in the reservoir. Such upward movements can be avoided if CO2 is injected in the dissolved phase (CO2aq). In this work, injection of CO2-saturated brine in a subsurface carbonate reservoir is modelled. Physical and geochemical interactions of injected low-pH CO2-saturated brine with the carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite and siderite) are investigated in the reactive transport modelling. CO2-saturated brine, being low in pH, shows high reactivity with the reservoir minerals, resulting in a significant mineral dissolution and CO2 conversion in reactions. Over the injection period of 10 years, up to 16% of the injected CO2 is found consumed in geochemical reactions. Sorption included in the transport analysis resulted in additional quantities of CO2 mass stored. However, for the considered carbonate minerals, the consumption of injected CO2aq is found mainly in the form of ionic trapping.
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| 5. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Non-isothermal reactive transport modelling of dissolved CO2 leaking through a fractured caprock
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Geological storage of CO2 is considered as one of the mitigation actions for climate change adverse effects. However, some fraction of CO2 dissolved in the brine following injection, may leak from the reservoir through permeable zones such as conducting fractures. In this study we perform the reactive transport modelling of single-phase brine saturated with dissolved CO2 (CO2aq) along a conducting fracture in a clay-rich caprock. This study investigates the role of temperature and various reaction systems on the fate of migrating CO2aq, its geochemical interactions with the carbonate minerals, its conversion in geochemical reactions and associated medium porosity and permeability evolutions along the transport pathway.About 0.64% of leaking CO2aq is found converted into other ions in its geochemical interactions with calcite (simplified geochemical system). Addition of mineral dolomite in the geochemical system (extended geochemical system) results in up to 11% higher mass conversion of CO2 in reactions as compared to the simplified geochemical system. Considering extended geochemical system and heat transport by moving brine resulted in about 27.34% higher mass conversion of CO2 in reactions as compared to the simplified geochemical system. A combination of extended geochemical system, heat transport and sorption resulted in about 82.59% higher mass conversion of CO2 compared to the simplified geochemical system. Leaking CO2aq travelled less than 250 m along the fractured pathway, for a velocity of nearly 19 m/year in the fracture, due to retardation caused by mass stored in aqueous and adsorbed states.
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| 6. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, et al.
(author)
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Reactive transport modeling of leaking CO2-saturated brine along a fractured pathway
- 2015
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In: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier. - 1750-5836 .- 1878-0148. ; 42, s. 672-689
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- One concern regarding the underground storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) is its potential leakage from reservoirs. Over short period of time, the leakage risk is related mainly to CO2 as a separate supercritical fluid phase. However, over longer periods upon complete dissolution of injected CO2 in the fluid, the leakage risk is associated with dissolved phase CO2. Over the geological time scales, large-scale groundwater motion may cause displacement of brine containing dissolved CO2 along the conducting pathways. In this paper, we present a comprehensive modeling framework that describes the reactive transport of CO2-saturated brine along a fracture in the clay caprock based on the future, hypothetical leakage of the dissolved phase CO2. This study shows that the transport of leaked dissolved CO2 is significantly retarded by a combination of various physical and geochemical processes, such as mass exchange between conducting fracture and the neighboring rock matrix through molecular diffusion, sorption and calcite dissolution in the rock matrix. Mass stored in aqueous and adsorbed states in the rock matrix caused retention of dissolved CO2 along the leakage pathway. Calcite dissolution reaction in the rock matrix resulted in consumption of leaking dissolved CO2 and reduced its mass along the leakage pathway. Consumption and retention of dissolved CO2 along the leakage pathway have important implications for analyzing the potential reduction of CO2 fluxes from storage reservoirs over large periods and long travel pathways.
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| 7. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, 1972-
(author)
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REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELLING OF DISSOLVED CO2 IN POROUS MEDIA : Injection into and leakage from geological reservoirs
- 2016
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The geological sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the options of controlling the greenhouse gas emissions. However, leakage of CO2 from the storage reservoir is a risk associated with geological sequestration. Over longer times, large-scale groundwater motion may cause leakage of dissolved CO2 (CO2aq).The objectives of this thesis are twofold. First, the modelling study analyzes the leakage of CO2aq along the conducting pathways. Second, a relatively safer mode of geological storage is investigated wherein CO2aq is injected in a carbonate reservoir. A reactive transport model is developed that accounts for the coupled hydrological transport and the geochemical reactions of CO2aq in the porous media. The study provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of advection, dispersion, diffusion, sorption, geochemical reactions, temperature, and heat transport on the fate of leaking CO2aq.The mass exchange between the conducting pathway and the rock matrix plays an important role in retention and reactions of leaking CO2aq. A significant retention of leaking CO2aq is caused by its mass stored in aqueous and adsorbed states and its consumption in reactions in the rock matrix along the leakage pathway. Advection causes a significant leakage of CO2aq directly from the reservoir through the matrix in comparison to the diffusion alone in the rock matrix and advection in a highly conducting, but thin fracture. Heat transport by leaking brine also plays an important role in geochemical interactions of leaking CO2aq. Injection of CO2aq is simulated for a carbonate reservoir. Injected CO2-saturated brine being reactive causes fast dissolution of carbonate minerals in the reservoir and fast conversion of CO2aq through considered geochemical reactions. Various parameters like dispersion, sorption, temperature, and minerals reaction kinetics are found to play important role in the consumption of CO2aq in reactions.
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| 8. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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The role of advection and dispersion in the rock matrix on the transport of leaking CO2-saturated brine along a fractured zone
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- CO2 that is injected into a storage reservoir can leak in dissolved form because of brine displacement from the reservoir, which is caused by large-scale groundwater motion. Simulations of the reactive transport of leaking CO2aq along a conducting fracture in a clay-rich caprock are conducted to analyze the effect of various physical and geochemical processes. Whilst several modelling transport studies along rock fractures have considered diffusion as the only transport process in the surrounding rock matrix (diffusive transport), this study analyzes the combined role of advection and dispersion in the rock matrix in addition to diffusion (advection-dominated transport) on the migration of CO2aq along a leakage pathway and its conversion in geochemical reactions. A sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the effect of fluid velocity and dispersivity. Variations in the porosity and permeability of the medium are observed in response to calcite dissolution and precipitation along the leakage pathway. We observe that advection and dispersion in the rock matrix play a significant role in the overall transport process. For the parameters that were used in this study, advection-dominated transport increased the leakage of CO2aq from the reservoir by nearly 305%, caused faster transport and increased the mass conversion of CO2aq in geochemical reactions along the transport pathway by approximately 12.20% compared to diffusive transport.
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| 9. |
- Ahmad, Nawaz, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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The role of advection and dispersion in the rock matrix on the transport of leaking CO2-saturated brine along a fractured zone
- 2016
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In: Advances in Water Resources. - : Elsevier. - 0309-1708 .- 1872-9657. ; 98, s. 132-146
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- CO2 that is injected into a geological storage reservoir can leak in dissolved form because of brine displacement from the reservoir, which is caused by large-scale groundwater motion. Simulations of the reactive transport of leaking CO2aq along a conducting fracture in a clay-rich caprock are conducted to analyze the effect of various physical and geochemical processes. Whilst several modeling transport studies along rock fractures have considered diffusion as the only transport process in the surrounding rock matrix (diffusive transport), this study analyzes the combined role of advection and dispersion in the rock matrix in addition to diffusion (advection-dominated transport) on the migration of CO2aq along a leakage pathway and its conversion in geochemical reactions. A sensitivity analysis is performed to quantify the effect of fluid velocity and dispersivity. Variations in the porosity and permeability of the medium are found in response to calcite dissolution and precipitation along the leakage pathway. We observe that advection and dispersion in the rock matrix play a significant role in the overall transport process. For the parameters that were used in this study, advection-dominated transport increased the leakage of CO2aq from the reservoir by nearly 305%, caused faster transport and increased the mass conversion of CO2aq in geochemical reactions along the transport pathway by approximately 12.20% compared to diffusive transport.
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| 10. |
- Arslan, Muhammad, et al.
(author)
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Impact of Varying Load Conditions and Cooling Energy Comparison of a Double-Inlet Pulse Tube Refrigerator
- 2020
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In: Processes. - : MDPI. - 2227-9717. ; 8:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Modeling and optimization of a double-inlet pulse tube refrigerator (DIPTR) is very difficult due to its geometry and nature. The objective of this paper was to optimize-DIPTR through experiments with the cold heat exchanger (CHX) along the comparison of cooling load with experimental data using different boundary conditions. To predict its performance, a detailed two-dimensional DIPTR model was developed. A double-drop pulse pipe cooler was used for solving continuity, dynamic and power calculations. External conditions for applicable boundaries include sinusoidal pressure from an end of the tube from a user-defined function and constant temperature or limitations of thermal flux within the outer walls of exchanger walls under colder conditions. The results of the system's cooling behavior were reported, along with the connection between the mass flow rates, heat distribution along pulse tube and cold-end pressure, the cooler load's wall temp profile and cooler loads with varied boundary conditions i.e. opening of 20% double-inlet and 40-60% orifice valves, respectively. Different loading conditions of 1 and 5W were applied on the CHX. At 150 K temperature of the cold-end heat exchanger, a maximum load of 3.7 W was achieved. The results also reveal a strong correlation between computational fluid dynamics modeling results and experimental results of the DIPTR.
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