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1.
  • Akperov, M., et al. (author)
  • Trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic from reanalyses data and regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)
  • 2019. - 1
  • In: Turbulence, Atmosphere and Climate Dynamics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1755-1307. ; 231
  • Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the trends of intense cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble in winter and summer are compared with the results from four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, NASA-MERRA2 and JMA-JRA55) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period.
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2.
  • Akperov, M. G., et al. (author)
  • Wind Energy Potential in the Arctic and Subarctic Regions and Its Projected Change in the 21st Century Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations
  • 2022
  • In: Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. - 1068-3739 .- 1934-8096. ; 47:6, s. 428-436
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Quantitative estimates of changes in wind energy resources in the Arctic were obtained using the RCA4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for 2006–2099. The wind power density proportional to cubic wind speed was analyzed. The procedure for the model near-surface wind speed bias correction using ERA5 data as a reference with subsequent extrapolation of wind speed to the turbine height was applied to estimate the wind power density (WPD). According to the RCA4 simulations for the 21st century under both anthropogenic forcing scenarios, a noticeable increase in the WPD was noted, in particular, over the Barents, Kara, and Chukchi seas in winter. In summer, a general increase in the WPD is manifested over the Arctic Ocean. The changes are more significant under the RCP8.5 scenario with high anthropogenic forcing for the 21st century. According to model projections, an increase in the interdaily WPD variations does not generally lead to the deviations of wind speed to the values at which the operation of wind generators is unfeasible.
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