| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Adem, Abdu, et al.
(author)
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ANP and BNP Responses to Dehydration in the One-Humped Camel and Effects of Blocking the Renin-Angiotensin System
- 2013
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:3, s. e57806-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The objectives of this study were to investigate and compare the responses of atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in the circulation of hydrated, dehydrated, and dehydrated losartan - treated camels; and to document the cardiac storage form of B-type natriuretic peptide in the camel heart. Eighteen male camels were used in the study: control or hydrated camels (n = 6), dehydrated camels (n = 6) and dehydrated losartan-treated camels (n = 6) which were dehydrated and received the angiotensin II (Ang II) AT-1 receptor blocker, losartan, at a dose of 5 mg/kg body weight intravenously for 20 days. Control animals were supplied with feed and water ad-libitum while both dehydrated and dehydrated-losartan treated groups were supplied with feed ad-libitum but no water for 20 days. Compared with time-matched controls, dehydrated camels exhibited a significant decrease in plasma levels of both ANP and BNP. Losartan-treated camels also exhibited a significant decline in ANP and BNP levels across 20 days of dehydration but the changes were not different from those seen with dehydration alone. Size exclusion high performance liquid chromatography of extracts of camel heart indicated that proB-type natriuretic peptide is the storage form of the peptide. We conclude first, that dehydration in the camel induces vigorous decrements in circulating levels of ANP and BNP; second, blockade of the renin-angiotensin system has little or no modulatory effect on the ANP and BNP responses to dehydration; third, proB-type natriuretic peptide is the storage form of this hormone in the heart of the one-humped camel.
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| 8. |
- Al Haj, Mahmoud, et al.
(author)
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Changes in insulin-like growth factor-1 and IGF-binding protein-3 in camel plasma during dehydration in the presence and absence of losartan
- 2012
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In: Comparative Clinical Pathology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1618-5641 .- 1618-565X. ; 21:6, s. 1745-1749
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the present study, the effect of 20 days of dehydration in the presence or absence of losartan (angiotensin II AT1 receptor antagonist) on insulin-like growth factor-1(IGF-1) and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3(IGFBP-3) in plasma of the one-humped camel was studied. Eighteen male camels, 3-4 years of age, were divided into three equal groups: control, dehydrated, and dehydrated-losartan-treated groups. The control camels were given food and water ad libitum. The two dehydrated groups underwent 20 days of water deprivation but were given food ad libitum. The dehydrated-losartan-treated camels were given losartan injection (Merck, USA), intravenously at a dose of 5 mg/kg body weight daily for 20 days. Our results demonstrated a progressive decrease in the circulating levels of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 in the dehydrated and dehydrated-losartan-treated animals across dehydration compared to their basal levels and time-matched control. On day 5 of dehydration, the IGF-1 level in the losartan-treated group showed a decrease of 60 % and the dehydrated group showed 45 % decrease from their baseline levels and time-matched control. On day 10 the decrease in the losartan-treated animals reached 74 % and for the dehydrated was 62 %. On day 20 the decrease in the losartan-treated was 89 % and for the dehydrated reached 80 % from their baseline levels and time-matched control. Dehydration in the presence or absence of losartan caused a decrease in the circulating level of IGFBP-3. The decrement reached 26 % on day 10 and 20 for the treated camels, while the decrease for the dehydrated was 22 % on day 10 of dehydration and reached 29 % on day 20 compared to their baseline levels and time-matched control. In conclusion, dehydration alone, or in presence of Angiotensin II AT1 receptor blocker caused significant decrease in the circulating levels of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 compared to their basal values and to time-matched controls. Losartan enhanced the effect of dehydration mainly in the early phase of dehydration for both parameters; albeit, no significant differences between the two dehydrated groups was observed. Finally, these findings suggest an essential role of IGF-1and IGFBP-3 in the dehydration state of these dromedarian camels.
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| 9. |
- Al Haj, Mahmoud, et al.
(author)
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Effect of Dehydration in the Presence and Absence of the Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Losartan on Blood Constituents in the Camel
- 2011
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In: Journal of Medical Sciences. - : Hamdan Medical Journal. - 1996-3262 .- 1996-3270. ; 4:2, s. 73-78
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: Dromedary camels are extremely well adapted to periods of water deprivation. The physiological mechanisms underlying this adaptation, however, are imperfectly understood. It is likely that the renin-angiotensin system plays an important role although few studies have addressed this possibility in the camel. Accordingly, the effects of long term dehydration alone and with angiotensin II type 1 receptor blocker, losartan, on whole blood and serum constituents were studied in camels.Methods:Twenty eight male camels 3-4 years old were studied while under shade during summer in the Gulf-region, where the ambient temperature was above 40 degree Celsius. The camels were divided into three groups: a control group(n=6) was allowed free access to feed and water, a dehydration group (n=16) was given food ad-lib during 20days of total water deprivation, and a dehydration plus losartan (losartan) group (n=6) which received losartan 5mg/Kg daily by intravenous injection during 20 days of dehydration. Results: The body weight of the losartan group decreased by nearly 39.1% across dehydration whereas the reduction in body weight for the dehydration group was nearly 34.5% compared to controls. There was a significant increase in the packed cell volume (p<0.05) and leucocytes count (p<0.01) in the losartan group compared to controls. However, the mean corpuscular volume was significantly higher (p<0.05) in the dehydration group compared to controls. We observed major, statistically significant increases in serum urea (p<0.01) and creatinine (p<0.05) levels in the dehydration and losartan groups compared to controls. By the end of the period ofwater restriction, serum levels of gamma glutamyl transferase were significantly (p<0.01) lower in the losartan group compared to controls.Conclusion: The results of our experiment show that dehydration alone or in combination with Angiotensin II receptor blocker has major effects on the biochemical and hematological parameters of the camel blood.
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| 10. |
- Al Haj, Mahmoud
(author)
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Effects of Dehydration and Blockade of the Renin-Angiotensin System in the One-humped Camel (Camelus dromedarius)
- 2013
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The one-humped or the dromedarian camel is a pseudo-ruminant mammal, well adapted to the hot and dry climates of the desert. Its ability to withstand torrid heat and extreme desiccation is of paramount importance to its survival. The studies presented in this thesis were designed to investigate and document the effect of dehydration in the presence or absence of angiotensin II (Ang II) AT1 receptor blocker (losartan) on blood constituents, electrolytes, hormones, neurotransmitters as well as liver and kidney enzymes in a subset of dehydrated camels and to compare them with hydrated camels. Additionally, we studied the response of atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and revealed for the first time the cardiac storage form of BNP in the camel heart. Dehydration induced significant increments in packed cell volume (PCV), white blood cells (WBC), gamma glutamyl-transferase (GGT), serum sodium, creatinine and urea levels, and a doubling in plasma cortisol and arginine vasopressin (AVP) levels. At the same time dehydration caused significant decrease in body weights, plasma insulin like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and its binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3), and a 50% decrement in ANP and BNP levels. Moreover, dehydration with and without losartan resulted in significant changes in stress hormones and anti-oxidants in plasma, liver and kidney homogenates. Losartan on one hand enhanced the effect of dehydration resulting in significant increases in sodium, creatinine and urea levels. In addition losartan raised the binding affinity of Ang II AT2 receptors in the small intestine with 8-fold and with 16-fold for liver AT1 receptors, indicating that Ang II AT1 and AT2 receptor binding sites were present in camel's small intestine while only AT1 receptor binding sites were found in the camel liver. One the other hand losartan resulted in significant decrease in body weights impaired the rise in anti-diuretic hormone and reduced aldosterone level. Finally, we showed that the proBNP is the storage form of BNP in the camel heart.
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