| 1. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(author)
-
- 2023
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
| 2. |
- Niemi, MEK, et al.
(author)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
| 3. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
|
|
| 4. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
-
Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
-
In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Pérez-Granados, Cristian, et al.
(author)
-
European scenarios for future biological invasions
- 2024
-
In: People and Nature. - 2575-8314. ; 6:1, s. 245-259
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature's contributions to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent but complementary scenarios focussed on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we implemented and presented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change, including biological invasions.
|
|
| 7. |
- Pilotto, Francesca, et al.
(author)
-
Is the body condition of the invasive zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) enhanced through attachment to native freshwater mussels (Bivalvia, Unionidae)?
- 2016
-
In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 553, s. 243-249
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The invasion of zebra mussels, Dreissena polymorpha, into Western Europe and North America has driven widespread ecological change. Attachment of zebra mussels to the shell of native unionoid mussels has resulted in reductions in unionoid abundance and, in extreme cases, their localised extirpations. While the impacts of zebra mussels on infested unionoids are well documented, the possible benefits of the association to the zebra mussel have been little considered. We collected zebra mussels attached to unionoids and to inanimate structures. Zebra mussels attached to unionoids had significantly larger shells, higher standardized body mass and glycogen content than those attached to inanimate substrates, suggesting that D. polymorpha benefits from settling upon unionoids. The body condition of individual zebra mussels was negatively correlated with the number of zebra mussels attached to the unionoid, indicating intraspecific competition. Therefore, zebra mussels seem positively affected through attachment to unionoid mussels, but that these benefits decrease at higher densities of fouling. This association may offer advantages to the spread of zebra mussels within unionoid-rich systems, especially at sites with soft substrates and at the early stages of the invasion process where intraspecific competition is likely to be lower and benefits to the zebra mussels are higher.
|
|
| 8. |
- Roura-Pascual, Nuria, et al.
(author)
-
A scenario-guided strategy for the future management of biological invasions
- 2024
-
In: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. - 1540-9295 .- 1540-9309.
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple social-ecological drivers. We used a scenario-based approach to explore potential management options for invasive species in Europe. During two workshops involving a multidisciplinary team of experts, we developed a management strategy arranged into 19 goals relating to policy, research, public awareness, and biosecurity. We conceived solutions for achieving these goals under different plausible future scenarios, and identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing invasive species can be structured: (1) a European biosecurity regime, (2) a dedicated communication strategy, (3) data standardization and management tools, and (4) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we assessed the feasibility of the management strategy and found substantial differences among scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate that it is time for a new strategy for managing biological invasions in Europe, one that is based on a more integrative approach across socioeconomic sectors and countries.
|
|
| 9. |
- Sousa, Ronaldo, et al.
(author)
-
Fouling of European freshwater bivalves (Unionidae) by the invasive zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha)
- 2011
-
In: Freshwater Biology. - : Blackwell Publishing. - 0046-5070 .- 1365-2427. ; 56:5, s. 867-876
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 1. The zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) is well known for its invasive success and its ecological and economic impacts. Of particular concern has been the regional extinction of North American freshwater mussels (Order Unionoida) on whose exposed shells the zebra mussels settle. Surprisingly, relatively little attention has been given to the fouling of European unionoids.2. We investigated interspecific patterns in fouling at six United Kingdom localities between 1998 and 2008. To quantify the effect on two pan-European unionoids (Anodonta anatina and Unio pictorum), we used two measures of physiological status: tissue mass : shell mass and tissue glycogen content.3. The proportion of fouled mussels increased between 1998 and 2008, reflecting the recent, rapid increase in zebra mussels in the U.K. Anodonta anatina was consistently more heavily fouled than U. pictorum and had a greater surface area of shell exposed in the water column.4. Fouled mussels had a lower physiological condition than unfouled mussels. Unlike tissue mass : shell mass ratio, tissue glycogen content was independent of mussel size, making it a particularly useful measure of condition. Unio pictorum showed a stronger decline in glycogen with increasing zebra mussel load, but had a broadly higher condition than A. anatina at the time of study (July).5. Given the high conservation status and important ecological roles of unionoids, the increased spatial distribution and fouling rates by D. polymorpha in Europe should receive more attention.
|
|
| 10. |
- Zieritz, Alexandra, et al.
(author)
-
A global synthesis of ecosystem services provided and disrupted by freshwater bivalve molluscs
- 2022
-
In: Biological Reviews. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1464-7931 .- 1469-185X. ; 97, s. 1967-1998
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Identification of ecosystem services, i.e. the contributions that ecosystems make to human well-being, has proven instrumental in galvanising public and political support for safeguarding biodiversity and its benefits to people. Here we synthesise the global evidence on ecosystem services provided and disrupted by freshwater bivalves, a heterogenous group of >1200 species, including some of the most threatened (in Unionida) and invasive (e.g. Dreissena polymorpha) taxa globally. Our systematic literature review resulted in a data set of 904 records from 69 countries relating to 24 classes of provisioning (N = 189), cultural (N = 491) and regulating (N = 224) services following the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES). Prominent ecosystem services included (i) the provisioning of food, materials and medicinal products, (ii) knowledge acquisition (e.g. on water quality, past environments and historical societies), ornamental and other cultural contributions, and (iii) the filtration, sequestration, storage and/or transformation of biological and physico-chemical water properties. About 9% of records provided evidence for the disruption rather than provision of ecosystem services. Synergies and trade-offs of ecosystem services were observed. For instance, water filtration by freshwater bivalves can be beneficial for the cultural service 'biomonitoring', while negatively or positively affecting food consumption or human recreation. Our evidence base spanned a total of 91 genera and 191 species, dominated by Unionida (55% of records, 76% of species), Veneroida (21 and 9%, respectively; mainly Corbicula spp.) and Myoida (20 and 4%, respectively; mainly Dreissena spp.). About one third of records, predominantly from Europe and the Americas, related to species that were non-native to the country of study. The majority of records originated from Asia (35%), with available evidence for 23 CICES classes, as well as Europe (29%) and North America (23%), where research was largely focused on 'biomonitoring'. Whilst the earliest record (from 1949) originated from North America, since 2000, annual output of records has increased rapidly in Asia and Europe. Future research should focus on filling gaps in knowledge in lesser-studied regions, including Africa and South America, and should look to provide a quantitative valuation of the socio-economic costs and benefits of ecosystem services shaped by freshwater bivalves.
|
|
