| 1. |
- Berchet, Antoine, et al.
(author)
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The Community Inversion Framework v1.0 : A unified system for atmospheric inversion studies
- 2021
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 14:8, s. 5331-5354
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atmospheric inversion approaches are expected to play a critical role in future observation-based monitoring systems for surface fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs), pollutants and other trace gases. In the past decade, the research community has developed various inversion software, mainly using variational or ensemble Bayesian optimization methods, with various assumptions on uncertainty structures and prior information and with various atmospheric chemistry-Transport models. Each of them can assimilate some or all of the available observation streams for its domain area of interest: flask samples, in situ measurements or satellite observations. Although referenced in peer-reviewed publications and usually accessible across the research community, most systems are not at the level of transparency, flexibility and accessibility needed to provide the scientific community and policy makers with a comprehensive and robust view of the uncertainties associated with the inverse estimation of GHG and reactive species fluxes. Furthermore, their development, usually carried out by individual research institutes, may in the future not keep pace with the increasing scientific needs and technical possibilities. We present here the Community Inversion Framework (CIF) to help rationalize development efforts and leverage the strengths of individual inversion systems into a comprehensive framework. The CIF is primarily a programming protocol to allow various inversion bricks to be exchanged among researchers. In practice, the ensemble of bricks makes a flexible, transparent and open-source Python-based tool to estimate the fluxes of various GHGs and reactive species both at the global and regional scales. It will allow for running different atmospheric transport models, different observation streams and different data assimilation approaches. This adaptability will allow for a comprehensive assessment of uncertainty in a fully consistent framework. We present here the main structure and functionalities of the system, and we demonstrate how it operates in a simple academic case.
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| 2. |
- McGrath, Matthew J., et al.
(author)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2020
- 2023
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In: Earth System Science Data. - 1866-3508. ; 15:10, s. 4295-4370
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Quantification of land surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural (including formally managed ecosystems) sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed and unmanaged ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven categorical model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990-2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with the European national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI) reported by parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU member states following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing the NGHGI with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. For CO2 fossil emissions, after harmonizing estimates based on common activities and selecting the most recent year available for all datasets, the UNFCCC NGHGI for the EU27+UK accounts for 926g±g13gTggCgyr-1, while eight other BU sources report a mean value of 948 [937,961]gTggCgyr-1 (25th, 75th percentiles). The sole top-down inversion of fossil emissions currently available accounts for 875gTggC in this same year, a value outside the uncertainty of both the NGHGI and bottom-up ensemble estimates and for which uncertainty estimates are not currently available. For the net CO2 land fluxes, during the most recent 5-year period including the NGHGI estimates, the NGHGI accounted for -91g±g32gTggCgyr-1, while six other BU approaches reported a mean sink of -62 [-117,-49]gTggCgyr-1, and a 15-member ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) reported -69 [-152,-5]gTggCgyr-1. The 5-year mean of three TD regional ensembles combined with one non-ensemble inversion of -73gTggCgyr-1 has a slightly smaller spread (0th-100th percentiles of [-135,+45]gTggCgyr-1), and it was calculated after removing net land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transport of carbon (crop trade, wood trade, river transport, and net uptake from inland water bodies), resulting in increased agreement with the NGHGI and bottom-up approaches. Results at the category level (Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland) generally show good agreement between the NGHGI and category-specific models, but results for DGVMs are mixed. Overall, for both CO2 fossil and net CO2 land fluxes, we find that current independent approaches are consistent with the NGHGI at the scale of the EU27+UK. We conclude that CO2 emissions from fossil sources have decreased over the past 30 years in the EU27+UK, while land fluxes are relatively stable: positive or negative trends larger (smaller) than 0.07 (-0.61)gTggCgyr-2 can be ruled out for the NGHGI. In addition, a gap on the order of 1000gTggCgyr-1 between CO2 fossil emissions and net CO2 uptake by the land exists regardless of the type of approach (NGHGI, TD, BU), falling well outside all available estimates of uncertainties. However, uncertainties in top-down approaches to estimate CO2 fossil emissions remain uncharacterized and are likely substantial, in addition to known uncertainties in top-down estimates of the land fluxes. The data used to plot the figures are available at 10.5281/zenodo.8148461 (McGrath et al., 2023).
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| 3. |
- Monteil, Guillaume, et al.
(author)
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The regional European atmospheric transport inversion comparison, EUROCOM : First results on European-wide terrestrial carbon fluxes for the period 2006-2015
- 2020
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:20, s. 12063-12091
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atmospheric inversions have been used for the past two decades to derive large-scale constraints on the sources and sinks of CO2 into the atmosphere. The development of dense in situ surface observation networks, such as ICOS in Europe, enables in theory inversions at a resolution close to the country scale in Europe. This has led to the development of many regional inversion systems capable of assimilating these high-resolution data, in Europe and elsewhere. The EUROCOM (European atmospheric transport inversion comparison) project is a collaboration between seven European research institutes, which aims at producing a collective assessment of the net carbon flux between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Europe for the period 2006 2015. It aims in particular at investigating the capacity of the inversions to deliver consistent flux estimates from the country scale up to the continental scale. The project participants were provided with a common database of in situ-observed CO2 concentrations (including the observation sites that are now part of the ICOS network) and were tasked with providing their best estimate of the net terrestrial carbon flux for that period, and for a large domain covering the entire European Union. The inversion systems differ by the transport model, the inversion approach, and the choice of observation and prior constraints, enabling us to widely explore the space of uncertainties. This paper describes the intercomparison protocol and the participating systems, and it presents the first results from a reference set of inversions, at the continental scale and in four large regions. At the continental scale, the regional inversions support the assumption that European ecosystems are a relatively small sink (-0:21 ± 0:2 Pg C yr-1). We find that the convergence of the regional inversions at this scale is not better than that obtained in state-of-the-art global inversions. However, more robust results are obtained for subregions within Europe, and in these areas with dense observational coverage, the objective of delivering robust countryscale flux estimates appears achievable in the near future.
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| 4. |
- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(author)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2018
- 2021
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In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:5, s. 2363-2406
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized.
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| 5. |
- Stankowski, S., et al.
(author)
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The evolution of strong reproductive isolation between sympatric intertidal snails
- 2020
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In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8436 .- 1471-2970. ; 375:1806
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The evolution of strong reproductive isolation (RI) is fundamental to the origins and maintenance of biological diversity, especially in situations where geographical distributions of taxa broadly overlap. But what is the history behind strong barriers currently acting in sympatry? Using whole-genome sequencing and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, we inferred (i) the evolutionary relationships, (ii) the strength of RI, and (iii) the demographic history of divergence between two broadly sympatric taxa of intertidal snail. Despite being cryptic, based on external morphology, Littorina arcana and Littorina saxatilis differ in their mode of female reproduction (egg-laying versus brooding), which may generate a strong post-zygotic barrier. We show that egg-laying and brooding snails are closely related, but genetically distinct. Genotyping of 3092 snails from three locations failed to recover any recent hybrid or backcrossed individuals, confirming that RI is strong. There was, however, evidence for a very low level of asymmetrical introgression, suggesting that isolation remains incomplete. The presence of strong, asymmetrical RI was further supported by demographic analysis of these populations. Although the taxa are currently broadly sympatric, demographic modelling suggests that they initially diverged during a short period of geographical separation involving very low gene flow. Our study suggests that some geographical separation may kick-start the evolution of strong RI, facilitating subsequent coexistence of taxa in sympatry. The strength of RI needed to achieve sympatry and the subsequent effect of sympatry on RI remain open questions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards the completion of speciation: the evolution of reproductive isolation beyond the first barriers'.
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| 6. |
- Thompson, R. L., et al.
(author)
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Changes in net ecosystem exchange over Europe during the 2018 drought based on atmospheric observations
- 2020
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In: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 1471-2970. ; 375:1810
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The 2018 drought was one of the worst European droughts of the twenty-first century in terms of its severity, extent and duration. The effects of the drought could be seen in a reduction in harvest yields in parts of Europe, as well as an unprecedented browning of vegetation in summer. Here, we quantify the effect of the drought on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using five independent regional atmospheric inversion frameworks. Using a network of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction observations, we estimate NEE with at least monthly and 0.5° × 0.5° resolution for 2009-2018. We find that the annual NEE in 2018 was likely more positive (less CO2 uptake) in the temperate region of Europe by 0.09 ± 0.06 Pg C yr-1 (mean ± s.d.) compared to the mean of the last 10 years of -0.08 ± 0.17 Pg C yr-1, making the region close to carbon neutral in 2018. Similarly, we find a positive annual NEE anomaly for the northern region of Europe of 0.02 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-1 compared the 10-year mean of -0.04 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-1. In both regions, this was largely owing to a reduction in the summer CO2 uptake. The positive NEE anomalies coincided spatially and temporally with negative anomalies in soil water. These anomalies were exceptional for the 10-year period of our study. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.
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