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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Jock, Janet, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of pension eligibility expansion on men’s cognitive function : findings from rural South Africa
- 2023
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Ingår i: Journal of Aging & Social Policy. - : Routledge. - 0895-9420 .- 1545-0821.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two-thirds of people living with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) live in low- and middle-income countries, and this figure is expected to rise as these populations are rapidly aging. Since evidence demonstrates links between socioeconomic status and slower rates of cognitive decline, protecting older adults’ cognitive function in resource-limited countries that lack the infrastructure to cope with ADRD is crucial to reduce the burden it places on these populations and their health systems. While cash transfers are a promising intervention to promote healthy cognitive aging, factors such as household wealth and level of education often confound the ability to make causal inferences on the impact of cash transfers and cognitive function. This study uses a quasi-experimental design, leveraging an exogenous expansion to the Old Age Pension for men in South Africa, to approximate causal associations with cognitive function. We found evidence that there is a potential benefit of cash transfers at an earlier age for older individuals. As such, transfers such as pensions or other forms of direct basic income transfers may hold promise as potential interventions to promote healthy cognitive aging.
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| 4. |
- Young-Min, Steven, et al.
(författare)
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Biomarkers predict radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis and perform well compared with traditional markers
- 2007
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Ingår i: Arthritis and Rheumatism. - : Wiley. - 1529-0131 .- 0004-3591. ; 56:10, s. 3236-3247
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective. To evaluate the performance of biochemical and traditional markers in predicting radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. One hundred thirty-two patients with early RA were treated with nonbiologic therapies for 2 years and studied longitudinally. Genomic DNA was analyzed for presence of the shared epitope. Levels of matrix metalloproteinases (matrix metalloproteinase I [MMP-1], MMP-13, and MMP-3), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases I (TIMP-1), and cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP) were assessed in serially obtained serum samples. The presence of pyridinoline (Pyr), deoxypyridinoline, glycosylated Pyr (Glc-Gal-Pyr), and C-telopeptide of type 11 collagen (CTX-II) was assessed in urine samples. Radiographs obtained at entry and at 2 years were evaluated using the modified Larsen score. Results. Baseline and 2-year radiographs were available from 118 patients. Larsen scores worsened during the 2 years in 50 patients, while 68 patients had no radiographic progression. Levels of a variety of biochemical markers, i.e., MMP-3, CTX-II, COMP, TIMP-1, Pyr, and Gic-Gal-Pyr, correlated significantly with radiographic progression at entry and longitudinally as assessed by area under the curve (AUC). By multivariate analysis, a model including MMP-3 and CTX-II was identified as providing the best prediction of radiographic progression at entry (predictive accuracy by receiver operating characteristic [ROC] AUC = 0.76 [95% confidence interval 0.66-0.85]), while a combination of MMP-3, CTX-II, and swollen joint count formed the best longitudinal AUC model (predictive accuracy by ROC AUC = 0.81 [95% confidence interval 0.73-0.89]). Patient-reported measures (Health Assessment Questionnaire, pain scores) were of limited use. In a subset of 50 patients who were treated with methotrexate (MTX) during the followup period, median serum MMP-3 levels decreased after the initiation of MTX therapy (P 0.0003). Conclusion. These results indicate that biochemical markers are useful predictors of radiographic progression in RA and that serum MMP-3 levels decrease significantly with MTX therapy. Multivariate models that include MMP-3 and CTX-II perform better than existing traditional markers in predicting radiographic outcome in RA.
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