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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Lages, J., et al.
(författare)
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Excess degassing drives long-term volcanic unrest at Nevado del Ruiz
- 2024
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - 2045-2322 .- 2045-2322. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study combines volcanic gas compositions, SO2 flux and satellite thermal data collected at Nevado del Ruiz between 2018 and 2021. We find the Nevado del Ruiz plume to have exhibited relatively steady, high CO2 compositions (avg. CO2/ST ratios of 5.4 ± 1.9) throughout. Our degassing models support that the CO2/ST ratio variability derives from volatile exsolution from andesitic magma stored in the 1–4 km depth range. Separate ascent of CO2-rich gas bubbles through shallow (< 1 km depth), viscous, conduit resident magma causes the observed excess degassing. We infer that degassing of ~ 974 mm3 of shallow (1–4 km) stored magma has sourced the elevated SO2 degassing recorded during 2018–2021 (average flux ~ 1548 t/d). Of this, only < 1 mm3 of magma have been erupted through dome extrusion, highlighting a large imbalance between erupted and degassed magma. Escalating deep CO2 gas flushing, combined with the disruption of passive degassing, through sudden accumulation and pressurization of bubbles due to lithostatic pressure, may accelerate volcanic unrest and eventually lead to a major eruption.
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| 3. |
- Peltier, Aline, et al.
(författare)
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Volcano Crisis Management at Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion) during the COVID-19 Lockdown
- 2021
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Ingår i: Seismological Research Letters. - : Seismological Society of America (SSA). - 1938-2057 .- 0895-0695. ; 92:1, s. 38-52
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In March 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization and became a global health crisis. Authorities worldwide implemented lockdowns to restrict travel and social exchanges in a global effort to counter the pandemic. In France, and in French overseas departments, the lockdown was effective from 17 March to 11 May 2020. It was in this context that the 2-6 April 2020 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean) took place. Upon the announcement of the lockdown in France, a reduced activity plan was set up by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, which manages the Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise (OVPF). The aim was to (1) maintain remote monitoring operations by teleworking and (2) authorize fieldwork only for critical reasons, such as serious breakdowns of stations or transmission relays. This eruption provided an opportunity for the observatory to validate its capacity to manage a volcanic crisis with 100% remotely operated monitoring networks. We thus present the longand short-term precursors to the eruption, and the evolution of the eruption recorded using the real-time monitoring data as communicated to the stakeholders. The data were from both continuously recording and transmitting field instruments as well as satellites. The volcano observatory staff remotely managed the volcano crisis with the various stakeholders based only on these remotely functioning networks. Monitoring duties were also assured in the absence of ad hoc field investigation of the eruption by observatory staff or face-to-face communications. The density and reliability of the OVPF networks, combined with satellite observations, allowed for trustworthy instrument-based monitoring of the eruption and continuity of the OVPF duties in issuing regular updates of volcanic activity in the context of a double crisis: volcanic and health.
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| 5. |
- Walter, Thomas R., et al.
(författare)
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Complex hazard cascade culminating in the Anak Krakatau sector collapse
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island's surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping decollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano's flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes.
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