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| 2. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(author)
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Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
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In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(author)
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Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
-
In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 4. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Adult outcomes of preterm birth
- 2016
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In: Preventive Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0091-7435. ; 91, s. 400-401
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Because of remarkable advances in the treatment of preterm birth, physicians increasingly encounter adult patients who were born preterm. However, research now shows that improved early survival may come at the expense of future health risks, including increased respiratory, cardiovascular, and kidney disease, diabetes and metabolic syndrome, and neuropsychiatric disorders. Unfortunately, this knowledge is not yet reflected in patient care. The NIH recently convened a conference of multidisciplinary international experts who called for better awareness among physicians regarding adult outcomes of preterm birth, which is critically needed for enabling them to identify and provide better care for these patients across the life course. This Letter aims to promote awareness of this issue among physicians in order to inform long-term patient care and policy. The continued high (~ 10%) prevalence of preterm birth and unprecedented numbers who are surviving into adulthood mean that the long-term health effects will have a growing clinical and public health impact in the future.
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| 5. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes and Long-Term Mortality in Women
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In: JAMA Internal Medicine. - 2168-6114.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Importance: Women with adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as preterm delivery or preeclampsia, have higher future risks of cardiometabolic disorders; however, little is known about their long-term mortality risks. A better understanding of such risks is needed to facilitate early identification of high-risk women and preventive actions. Objective: To determine long-term mortality risks associated with 5 major adverse pregnancy outcomes in a large population-based cohort of women. Design, Setting, and Participants: This national cohort study in Sweden used the Swedish Medical Birth Register, containing prenatal and birth information for nearly all deliveries in Sweden since 1973, to identify women who had a singleton delivery during 1973 to 2015. All 2195667 such women with information for pregnancy duration and infant birth weight were included in the study. Data were analyzed from March to September 2023. Exposure: Adverse pregnancy outcomes (preterm delivery, small for gestational age, preeclampsia, other hypertensive disorders, and gestational diabetes), identified from nationwide birth records. Main Outcome and Measures: All-cause and cause-specific mortality through December 31, 2018. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality associated with specific adverse pregnancy outcomes, adjusted for other maternal factors. Cosibling analyses assessed for confounding by shared familial (genetic or environmental) factors. Results: In 56 million person-years of follow-up to a median (IQR) age of 52 (42-61) years, 88055 women (4%) died (median [IQR] age at death, 59 [50-67] years). All 5 adverse pregnancy outcomes were independently associated with increased mortality. Across the entire follow-up (≤46 years after delivery), adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality associated with specific adverse pregnancy outcomes were as follows: gestational diabetes, 1.52 (95% CI, 1.46-1.58); preterm delivery, 1.41 (95% CI, 1.37-1.44); small for gestational age, 1.30 (95% CI, 1.28-1.32); other hypertensive disorders, 1.27 (95% CI, 1.19-1.37); and preeclampsia, 1.13 (95% CI, 1.10-1.16). All HRs remained significantly elevated even 30 to 46 years after delivery. These effect sizes were only partially (0%-45%) reduced after controlling for shared familial factors in cosibling analyses. Women who experienced multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes had further increases in risk. Several major causes of death were identified, including cardiovascular and respiratory disorders and diabetes. Conclusions and Relevance: In this large national cohort study, women who experienced any of 5 major adverse pregnancy outcomes had increased mortality risks that remained elevated more than 40 years later. Women with adverse pregnancy outcomes need early preventive evaluation and long-term follow-up for detection and treatment of chronic disorders associated with premature mortality.
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| 6. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Adverse pregnancy outcomes and long-term risk of chronic kidney disease in women : national cohort and co-sibling study
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In: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. - 0002-9378.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Women with adverse pregnancy outcomes may have higher subsequent risk of chronic kidney disease, but the long-term independent risks and potential causality are unclear. Objective: This study aimed to determine long-term risks of chronic kidney disease associated with 5 major adverse pregnancy outcomes in a large population-based cohort, and to assess for familial confounding using co-sibling analyses. Study Design: A national cohort study was conducted of all 2,201,279 women with a singleton delivery in Sweden from 1973 to 2015, followed up for chronic kidney disease identified from nationwide diagnoses through 2018. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios for chronic kidney disease associated with preterm delivery, small for gestational age, preeclampsia, other hypertensive disorders, and gestational diabetes, adjusting for other adverse pregnancy outcomes and maternal factors. Co-sibling analyses assessed for potential confounding by shared familial (genetic or environmental) factors. Results: In 56 million person-years of follow-up, 11,572 (0.5%) women were diagnosed with chronic kidney disease (median age, 61 years). All 5 adverse pregnancy outcomes were independently associated with increased chronic kidney disease risk. Within 10 years following delivery, adjusted hazard ratios associated with specific adverse pregnancy outcomes were: 7.12 for other hypertensive disorders (95% confidence interval, 5.88–8.62), 4.38 for preeclampsia (3.72–5.16), 3.50 for preterm delivery (2.95–4.15), 3.15 for gestational diabetes (2.53–3.92), and 1.22 for small for gestational age (1.02–1.44). All hazard ratios remained significantly elevated even 30 to 46 years after delivery (gestational diabetes, 3.32 [95% confidence interval, 2.96–3.72]; other hypertensive disorders, 2.44 [1.91–3.11]; preeclampsia, 2.03 [1.90–2.16]; preterm delivery, 1.56 [1.44–1.68]; and small for gestational age, 1.24 [1.16–1.31]). These findings were only partially (0%–45%) explained by shared familial factors. Women with multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes had further increases in risk. Conclusion: In this large national cohort, women who experienced any of 5 major adverse pregnancy outcomes had increased risk for chronic kidney disease up to 46 years later. Women with adverse pregnancy outcomes need early preventive actions and long-term monitoring to reduce risk of chronic kidney disease.
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| 7. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Adverse pregnancy outcomes and long term risk of ischemic heart disease in mothers : national cohort and co-sibling study
- 2023
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In: BMJ. - : BMJ. - 0959-8146 .- 1756-1833. ; 380
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: To examine the associations between five major adverse pregnancy outcomes and long term risks of ischemic heart disease in mothers. Design: National cohort study. Setting: Sweden. Participants: All 2 195 266 women with a first singleton delivery in Sweden during 1973-2015. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measure was incidence of ischemic heart disease from delivery to 2018, identified from nationwide inpatient and outpatient diagnoses. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios for ischemic heart disease associated with preterm delivery, small for gestational age, pre-eclampsia, other hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and gestational diabetes, adjusting for other adverse pregnancy outcomes and maternal factors. Co-sibling analyses assessed for confounding by shared familial (genetic and environmental) factors. Results: During 53.6 million person years of follow-up, ischemic heart disease was diagnosed in 83 881 (3.8%) women. All five adverse pregnancy outcomes were independently associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease. In the 10 years after delivery, adjusted hazard ratios for ischemic heart disease associated with specific adverse pregnancy outcomes were 2.09 (95% confidence interval 1.77 to 2.46) for other hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, 1.72 (1.55 to 1.90) for preterm delivery, 1.54 (1.37 to 1.72) for pre-eclampsia, 1.30 (1.09 to 1.56) for gestational diabetes, and 1.10 (1.00 to 1.21) for small for gestational age. The hazard ratios remained significantly increased even 30-46 years after delivery: 1.47 (1.30 to 1.66) for other hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, 1.40 (1.29 to 1.51) for gestational diabetes, 1.32 (1.28 to 1.36) for pre-eclampsia, 1.23 (1.19 to 1.27) for preterm delivery, and 1.16 (1.13 to 1.19) for small for gestational age. These findings were only partially (<45%) explained by shared familial (genetic or environmental) factors. Women who experienced multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes showed further increases in risk (eg, <10 years after delivery, adjusted hazard ratios associated with 1, 2, or ≥3 adverse pregnancy outcomes were 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), 1.80 (1.59 to 2.03), and 2.26 (1.89 to 2.70), respectively)). Conclusions: In this large national cohort, women who experienced any of five major adverse pregnancy outcomes showed an increased risk for ischemic heart disease up to 46 years after delivery. Women with adverse pregnancy outcomes should be considered for early preventive evaluation and long term risk reduction to help prevent the development of ischemic heart disease.
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| 8. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Aerobic fitness, muscular strength and obesity in relation to risk of heart failure
- 2017
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In: Heart. - : BMJ. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 103:22, s. 1780-1787
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective Low physical fitness and obesity have been associated with higher risk of developing heart failure (HF), but their interactive effects are unknown. Elucidation of interactions among these common modifiable factors may help facilitate more effective primary prevention. Methods We conducted a national cohort study to examine the interactive effects of aerobic fitness, muscular strength and body mass index (BMI) among 1 330 610 military conscripts in Sweden during 1969-1997 (97%-98% of all 18-year-old men) on risk of HF identified from inpatient and outpatient diagnoses through 2012 (maximum age 62 years). Results There were 11 711 men diagnosed with HF in 37.8 million person-years of follow-up. Low aerobic fitness, low muscular strength and obesity were independently associated with higher risk of HF, after adjusting for each other, socioeconomic factors, other chronic diseases and family history of HF. The combination of low aerobic fitness and low muscular strength (lowest vs highest tertiles) was associated with a 1.7-fold risk of HF (95% CI 1.6 to 1.9; p<0.001; incidence rates per 100 000 person-years, 43.2 vs 10.8). These factors had positive additive and multiplicative interactions (p<0.001) and were associated with increased risk of HF even among men with normal BMI. Conclusions Low aerobic fitness, low muscular strength and obesity at the age of 18 years were independently associated with higher risk of HF in adulthood, with interactive effects between aerobic fitness and muscular strength. These findings suggest that early-life interventions may help reduce the long-term risk of HF and should include both aerobic fitness and muscular strength, even among persons with normal BMI.
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| 9. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Association of Preterm Birth with Long-term Risk of Heart Failure into Adulthood
- 2021
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In: JAMA Pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203. ; 175:7, s. 689-697
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Importance: Preterm birth has been associated with increased risk of heart failure (HF) early in life, but its association with new-onset HF in adulthood appears to be unknown. Objective: To determine whether preterm birth is associated with increased risk of HF from childhood into mid-adulthood in a large population-based cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This national cohort study was conducted in Sweden with data from 1973 through 2015. All singleton live births in Sweden during 1973 through 2014 were included. Exposures: Gestational age at birth, identified from nationwide birth records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Heart failure, as identified from inpatient and outpatient diagnoses through 2015. Cox regression was used to determine hazard ratios (HRs) for HF associated with gestational age at birth while adjusting for other perinatal and maternal factors. Cosibling analyses assessed for potential confounding by unmeasured shared familial (genetic and/or environmental) factors. Results: A total of 4193069 individuals were included (maximum age, 43 years; median age, 22.5 years). In 85.0 million person-years of follow-up, 4158 persons (0.1%) were identified as having HF (median [interquartile range] age, 15.4 [28.0] years at diagnosis). Preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks) was associated with increased risk of HF at ages younger than 1 year (adjusted HR [aHR], 4.49 [95% CI, 3.86-5.22]), 1 to 17 years (aHR, 3.42 [95% CI, 2.75-4.27]), and 18 to 43 years (aHR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.19-1.71]) compared with full-term birth (gestational age, 39-41 weeks). At ages 18 through 43 years, the HRs further stratified by gestational age were 4.72 (95% CI, 2.11-10.52) for extremely preterm births (22-27 weeks), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.37-2.71) for moderately preterm births (28-33 weeks), 1.24 (95% CI, 1.00-1.54) for late preterm births (34-36 weeks), and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.97-1.24) for early term births (37-38 weeks). The corresponding HF incidence rates (per 100000 person-years) at ages 18 through 43 years were 31.7, 13.8, 8.7, and 7.3, respectively, compared with 6.6 for full-term births. These associations persisted when excluding persons with structural congenital cardiac anomalies. The associations at ages 18 through 43 years (but not <18 years) appeared to be largely explained by shared determinants of preterm birth and HF within families. Preterm birth accounted for a similar number of HF cases among male and female individuals. Conclusions and Relevance: In this large national cohort, preterm birth was associated with increased risk of new-onset HF into adulthood. Survivors of preterm birth may need long-term clinical follow-up into adulthood for risk reduction and monitoring for HF.
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| 10. |
- Crump, Casey, et al.
(author)
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Association of Preterm Birth with Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease in Adulthood
- 2019
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In: JAMA Pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203. ; 173:8, s. 736-736
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Importance: Preterm birth has previously been associated with increased risks of hypertension and diabetes, but not ischemic heart disease (IHD), in adulthood. The reasons for this lack of association with IHD despite associations with its risk factors have been elusive, but may be associated with methodologic issues, such as survivor bias, in prior studies. Objective: To determine whether preterm birth is associated with an increased risk of IHD in adulthood in a large population-based cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This national, population-based cohort study included all 2141709 persons who were born as singleton live births in Sweden during 1973 to 1994. The data were analyzed in September 2018. Exposures: Gestational age at birth, identified from nationwide birth records in the Swedish Birth Registry. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ischemic heart disease that was identified from nationwide inpatient and outpatient diagnoses through 2015 (maximum age, 43 years). A Cox regression was used to examine gestational age at birth in association with IHD in adulthood while adjusting for other perinatal and maternal factors. Cosibling analyses assessed for potential confounding by unmeasured shared familial factors. Results: Of 2141709 participants, 1041906 (48.6%) were female and there were 1921 persons (0.09%) who received a diagnosis of IHD in 30.9 million person-years of follow-up. Gestational age at birth was inversely associated with IHD risk in adulthood. At ages 30 to 43 years, adjusted hazard ratios for IHD associated with preterm (gestational age <37 weeks) and early-term birth (37-38 weeks) were 1.53 (95% CI, 1.20-1.94) and 1.19 (1.01-1.40), respectively, compared with full-term birth (39-41 weeks). Preterm-born women had lower IHD incidence than preterm-born men (15.16 vs 22.00 per 100000 person-years) but had a higher adjusted hazard ratio (1.93; 95% CI, 1.28-2.90 vs 1.37; 95% CI, 1.01-1.84). These associations did not appear to be explained by shared genetic or environmental factors in families. Conclusions and Relevance: In this large national cohort, preterm and early-term birth were associated with an increased IHD risk in adulthood. Persons born prematurely need early evaluation and preventive actions to reduce the risk of IHD.
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