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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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- Cocolios, T. E., et al.
(author)
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Early onset of deformation in the neutron-deficient polonium isotopes
- 2012
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In: Journal of Physics, Conference Series. - : IOP Publishing. - 1742-6588 .- 1742-6596. ; 381:1, s. 012072-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In-source laser spectroscopy has been performed at CERN-ISOLDE with the RILIS laser ion source on 191-204,206,208-211,216,218Po. New information on the β decay of 199Po were extracted in the process, challenging previous results. Large-scale atomic calculations were performed to extract the changes in the mean-square charge radius δr 2 from the isotope shifts. The δ«r» 2 for the even-A isotopes reveal a large deviation from the spherical droplet model for N < 116.
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- Cocolios, T. E., et al.
(author)
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Early Onset of Ground State Deformation in Neutron Deficient Polonium Isotopes
- 2011
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In: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 106:5, s. 052503-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In-source resonant ionization laser spectroscopy of the even-A polonium isotopes Po-192-210,Po-216,Po-218 has been performed using the 6p(3)7s S-5(2) to (6)p(3)7p P-5(2) (lambda = 843.38 nm) transition in the polonium atom (Po-I) at the CERN ISOLDE facility. The comparison of the measured isotope shifts in Po200-210 with a previous data set allows us to test for the first time recent large-scale atomic calculations that are essential to extract the changes in the mean-square charge radius of the atomic nucleus. When going to lighter masses, a surprisingly large and early departure from sphericity is observed, which is only partly reproduced by beyond mean field calculations.
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- Seliverstov, M. D., et al.
(author)
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Charge radii of odd-A Po191-211 isotopes
- 2013
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In: Physics Letters B. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693 .- 1873-2445. ; 719:4-5, s. 362-366
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Isotope shifts have been measured for the odd-A polonium isotopes Po191-211 and changes in the nuclear mean square charge radii delta < r(2 >) have been deduced. The measurements were performed at CERN-ISOLDE using the in-source resonance-ionization spectroscopy technique. The combined analysis of these data and our recent results for even-A polonium isotopes indicates an onset of deformation already at Po-197,Po-198, when going away from stability. This is significantly earlier than was suggested by previous theoretical and experimental studies of the polonium isotopes. Moreover and in contrast to the mercury isotopes, where a strong odd-even staggering of the charge radii of the ground states was observed by approaching the neutron mid-shell at N = 104, no such effect is present in polonium down to Po-191. Consequently the charge radii of both isomeric and ground states of the odd-A polonium isotopes follow the same trend as the even-A isotopes.
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- Seliverstov, M. D., et al.
(author)
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Electromagnetic moments of odd-A Po-193-203,Po-211 isotopes
- 2014
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In: Physical Review C. Nuclear Physics. - 0556-2813 .- 1089-490X. ; 89:3, s. 034323-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hyperfine splitting parameters have been measured for the neutron-deficient odd-mass polonium isotopes and isomers Po-193-203(g,m), Po-209,Po-211. The measurement was performed at the ISOLDE (CERN) online mass separator using the in-source resonance ionization spectroscopy technique. The magnetic dipole moments mu and spectroscopic electric quadrupole moments Q(S) have been deduced. Their implication for the understanding of nuclear structure in the vicinity of the closed proton shell at Z = 82 and the neutron mid-shell at N = 104 is discussed. For the most neutron-deficient nuclei (A = 193,195,197), a deviation of mu and QS from the nearly constant values for heavier polonium nuclei was observed. Particle-plus-rotor calculations with static oblate deformation describe the electromagnetic moments for these nuclei well, provided a gradual increase of a mean deformation when going to lighter masses is assumed for the polonium nuclei with A < 198.
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- Wang, F., et al.
(author)
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Reinvestigation of the excited states in the proton emitter Lu-151 : Particle-hole excitations across the N = Z=64 subshell
- 2017
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In: Physical Review C. - : American Physical Society. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 96:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The excited states of the proton emitter Lu-151 were reinvestigated in a recoil-decay tagging experiment at the Accelerator Laboratory of the University of Jyvaskyla (JYFL). The level scheme built on the ground state of 151Lu was updated with five new y-ray transitions. Large-scale shell model calculations were carried out in the model space consisting of the neutron and proton orbitals 0g(7/2), Id(5/2), Id(3/2), 2s(1/2), and Oh(1/2) with the optimized monopole interaction in order to interpret the experimental level scheme of Lu-151. It is found that the excitation energies of states above the 27/2(-) and 23/2(+) isomeric levels in Lu-151 can be sensitive to excitations from g(7/2) and d(5/2) to single-particle orbitals above N = Z = 64.
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