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- Demiroglu, Osman Cenk, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of climate change on natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacities, and wind conditions of ski resorts in northeast Turkey : a dynamical downscaling approach
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmosphere. - Basel : MDPI AG. - 2073-4433. ; 7:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many ski resorts worldwide are going through deteriorating snow cover conditions due to anthropogenic warming trends. As the natural and the artificially supported, i.e., technical, snow reliability of ski resorts diminish, the industry approaches a deadlock. For this reason, impact assessment studies have become vital for understanding vulnerability of ski tourism. This study considers three resorts at one of the rapidly emerging ski destinations, Northeast Turkey, for snow reliability analyses. Initially one global circulation model is dynamically downscaled by using the regional climate model RegCM4.4 for 1971-2000 and 2021-2050 periods along the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway. Next, the projected climate outputs are converted into indicators of natural snow reliability, snowmaking capacity, and wind conditions. The results show an overall decline in the frequencies of naturally snow reliable days and snowmaking capacities between the two periods. Despite the decrease, only the lower altitudes of one ski resort would face the risk of losing natural snow reliability and snowmaking could still compensate for forming the base layer before the critical New Year's week. On the other hand, adverse high wind conditions improve as to reduce the number of lift closure days at all resorts. Overall, this particular region seems to be relatively resilient against climate change.
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| 3. |
- Demiroglu, Osman Cenk, et al.
(författare)
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Technical climate change adaptation options of the major ski resorts in Bulgaria
- 2016
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Ingår i: Sustainable mountain regions. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319279053 - 9783319279039 ; , s. 77-88
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change has been and increasingly will be a major threat to the ski tourism industry, whose survival is highly dependent on the existence of snow cover of sufficient depth and duration. For this matter, it is even now more usual for the ski resorts to adapt to this issue by various measures at the technical, operational, and political levels. Technically speaking, snowmaking has become the method most used throughout the industry to combat the immediate impacts of climate change, while moving the ski areas to higher terrains has been standing out as an another option, wherever available and feasible. In this study, the aim is to project the future climatic changes in snowmaking capacity; in other words, technical snow reliability, and the moving requirements, if any, of the four major ski resorts in Bulgaria for the period of 2016–2030 with respect to the control period of 1991–2005. For this purpose, the past and the future climatic conditions for the technical snow reliability of the ski resorts and their immediate surroundings are determined by the temperature and the relative humidity values generated and projected through the Regional Climate Model RegCM 4.4 of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) by scaling the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR of Max Planck Institute for Meteorology down to a resolution of 10 km. The model is further processed according to the recent RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration scenarios of the IPCC. The model outputs on air temperature and relative humidity are utilized for determination of wet-bulb temperatures through psychographic conversions that ultimately provide us with thresholds for snowmaking limits. Findings display the temporal changes in the snowmaking hours of the ski resorts at various altitudinal levels calculated according to the environmental lapse rates. Such displays can guide the practitioners in considering investment lives and moving the ski resorts according to optimistic and pessimistic projections.
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| 4. |
- Demiroglu, Osman Cenk, et al.
(författare)
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The last resort? : Ski tourism and climate change in Arctic Sweden
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Tourism Futures. - : Emerald Group Publishing Limited. - 2055-5911 .- 2055-592X. ; 6:1, s. 91-101
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the external and internal factors that support or challenge a possible transformation of Arctic Sweden into a major ski destination under a changing climate.Design/methodology/approach – The paper questions future availability of the physical and the human factors that foster ski tourism development in Arctic Sweden and suggests a comparative case study in relation to the already existing large resort-based ski destinations in Arctic Finland.Findings – Preliminary documentary analysis shows that the governmental and the industrial discourses over the past decade have acknowledged a competitive edge for Sweden and its northernmost regions in particular and may even propose a structural shift for ski tourism in the near future agenda. The visualisations based on natural snow projections presented in this paper confirm this comparative advantage but other technical and socioeconomic development factors are further discussed, in relation to Arctic Finland.Research limitations/implications – Future research agenda is suggested to cover, first, assessment of natural and technical snow reliability of existing and all potential ski areas in Sweden and within its competitive set extending to all the Nordics and the Alps, then, incorporation of adaptive capacities of the suppliers but especially the likely substitution tendencies of the consumers, and finally, evaluation of the overall situation in terms of the regional development needs.Social implications – It is apparent that land use conflicts will arise in case of large ski resort-based destination development in Arctic Sweden, especially around the environmentally protected areas, which are not only already important attractions for nature-based tourism but also traditional livelihoods for the Sami.Originality/value – This is the first paper to discuss a potential regional and structural shift of ski tourism in Sweden.
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| 5. |
- Demiroglu, Osman Cenk, et al.
(författare)
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The Ski Climate Index (SCI) : Fuzzification and a regional climate modeling application for Turkey
- 2021
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Ingår i: International journal of biometeorology. - : Springer. - 0020-7128 .- 1432-1254. ; 65:5, s. 763-777
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climatology has increasingly become an important discipline for understanding tourism and recreation, especially in the era of contemporary climate change. Climate indices, in this respect, have been useful tools to yield the climatic attractiveness of tourism destinations as well as in understanding their altering suitability to various tourism types along with the changing climates. In this study, a major gap for a comprehensive climate index tailored for ski tourism is aimed to be fulfilled. For this purpose, initially the Ski Climate Index (SCI) is specified, based on fuzzy logic and as informed by literature and through extensive co-creation with the ski tourism industry experts, and applied to an emerging destination, Turkey, based on regional climate modeling projections. The index is designed as a combination of snow reliability and aesthetics and comfort facets, the latter of which includes sunshine, wind, and thermal comfort conditions. Results show that the Eastern Anatolia region is climatically the most suitable area for future development, taking account of the overriding effects of natural and technical snow reliability. Future research suggestions include the incorporation of more components into the index as well as technical recommendations to improve its application and validation.
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