| 1. |
- Oldeman, Arthur M., et al.
(author)
-
Reduced El Niño variability in the mid-Pliocene according to the PlioMIP2 ensemble
- 2021
-
In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:6, s. 2427-2450
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies.In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.
|
|
| 2. |
- Weiffenbach, Julia E., et al.
(author)
-
Unraveling the mechanisms and implications of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in PlioMIP2
- 2023
-
In: Climate of the Past. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 19:1, s. 61-85
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration was approximately equal to the concentration we measure today (ca. 400 ppm). Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate above-average warming over the North Atlantic in the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Earlier results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) show that the ensemble simulates a stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial. However, no consistent relationship between the stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC and either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs has been found. In this study, we look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in mid-Pliocene compared to pre-industrial simulations in PlioMIP2. We find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. This contributes to an increase in salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea that can be linked to the stronger AMOC in the mid-Pliocene. To investigate the dynamics behind the ensembles variable response of the total Atlantic OHT to the stronger AMOC, we separate the Atlantic OHT into two components associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mid-Pliocene, it is partly compensated by a reduction in the gyre component in the northern subtropical gyre region. This indicates that the lack of relationship between the total OHT and AMOC is due to changes in OHT by the subtropical gyre. The overturning and gyre components should therefore be considered separately to gain a more complete understanding of the OHT response to a stronger mid-Pliocene AMOC. In addition, we show that the AMOC exerts a stronger influence on North Atlantic SSTs in the mid-Pliocene than in the pre-industrial, providing a possible explanation for the improved agreement of the PlioMIP2 ensemble mean SSTs with reconstructions in the North Atlantic.
|
|
| 3. |
- Donges, Jonathan F., et al.
(author)
-
Unified functional network and nonlinear time series analysis for complex systems science : The pyunicorn package
- 2015
-
In: Chaos. - : AIP Publishing. - 1054-1500 .- 1089-7682. ; 25:11
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We introduce the pyunicorn (Pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) open source software package for applying and combining modern methods of data analysis and modeling from complex network theory and nonlinear time series analysis. pyunicorn is a fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for the construction of functional networks such as climate networks in climatology or functional brain networks in neuroscience representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large data sets of time series and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures and models for spatial networks, networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics, or network surrogates. Additionally, pyunicorn provides insights into the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems as recorded in uni-and multivariate time series from a non-traditional perspective by means of recurrence quantification analysis, recurrence networks, visibility graphs, and construction of surrogate time series. The range of possible applications of the library is outlined, drawing on several examples mainly from the field of climatology.
|
|
| 4. |
- Ferreira, David, et al.
(author)
-
Atlantic-Pacific Asymmetry in Deep Water Formation
- 2018
-
In: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science. - : Annual Reviews. - 0084-6597 .- 1545-4495. ; 46, s. 327-352
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While the Atlantic Ocean is ventilated by high-latitude deep water formation and exhibits a pole-to-pole overturning circulation, the Pacific Ocean does not. This asymmetric global overturning pattern has persisted for the past 2-3 million years, with evidence for different ventilation modes in the deeper past. In the current climate, the Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry occurs because the Atlantic is more saline, enabling deep convection. To what extent the salinity contrast between the two basins is dominated by atmospheric processes (larger net evaporation over the Atlantic) or oceanic processes (salinity transport into the Atlantic) remains an outstanding question. Numerical simulations have provided support for both mechanisms; observations of the present climate support a strong role for atmospheric processes as well as some modulation by oceanic processes. A major avenue for future work is the quantification of the various processes at play to identify which mechanisms are primary in different climate states.
|
|
| 5. |
- Jüling, André, et al.
(author)
-
Multidecadal variability in the climate system : phenomena and mechanisms
- 2020
-
In: The European Physical Journal Plus. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2190-5444. ; 135:6
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An open and fundamental issue in climate dynamics is the origin of multidecadal variability in the climate system. Resolving this issue is essential for adequate attribution of human-induced climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide a perspective on multidecadal variability from the analysis of observations and results from model simulations. Data from the instrumental record indicate the existence of large-scale coherent patterns of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature. Combined with long time series of proxy data, these results provide ample evidence for the existence of multidecadal sea surface temperature variations. Results of a hierarchy of climate models have provided several mechanisms of this variability, ranging from pure atmospheric forcing, via internal ocean processes to coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions. An important problem is that current state-of-the-art climate models underestimate multidecadal variability. We argue that these models miss important processes in their representation of ocean eddies and focus on a robust mechanism of multidecadal variability which is found in multi-century simulations with climate models having a strongly eddying ocean component.
|
|
| 6. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(author)
-
The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4 : experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)
- 2017
-
In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:2, s. 889-901
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (>800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (similar to 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 x CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleo-climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
|
|
| 7. |
- Moon, Woosok, et al.
(author)
-
Baroclinic instability and large-scale wave propagation in a planetary-scale atmosphere
- 2022
-
In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. - : Wiley. - 0035-9009 .- 1477-870X. ; 148:743, s. 809-825
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Midlatitude atmospheric variability is dominated by the dynamics of the baroclinically unstable jet stream, which meanders and sheds eddies at the scale of the Rossby deformation radius. The eddies interact with each other and with the jet, affecting the variability on a wide range of scales, but the mechanisms of planetary-scale fluctuations of the jet are not well understood. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to explore the stability of planetary-scale motions in an idealized two-layer model of the atmosphere. The model is based on a combination of vertical shear and the Sverdrup relation, providing the dynamic link between the two layers, with meridional eddy heat fluxes parameterized as a diffusive process with the memory of past baroclinicity of the jet. We find that a planetary-scale instability exists if the vertical shear of the jet does not exceed a particular threshold. The inclusion of the eddy-memory effect enables westward or eastward propagation of planetary waves relative to the barotropic mean flow. Importantly, we find growing planetary waves that propagate slowly westward or are stationary, which could have important implications for the formation of atmospheric blocking events. Our theoretical results suggest that, with ongoing polar amplification due to global warming and the corresponding reduction of the vertical shear of the mean wind, the background conditions for the growth of planetary-scale waves via planetary-scale baroclinic instability are becoming more favorable.
|
|
| 8. |
- Moon, Woosok, et al.
(author)
-
Eddy memory as an explanation of intraseasonal periodic behaviour in baroclinic eddies
- 2021
-
In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. - : Wiley. - 0035-9009 .- 1477-870X. ; 147:737, s. 2395-2408
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The baroclinic annular mode (BAM) is a leading-order mode of the eddy kinetic energy in the Southern Hemisphere exhibiting oscillatory behaviour at intraseasonal time-scales. The oscillation mechanism has been linked to transient eddy–mean flow interactions which remain poorly understood. Here we demonstrate that the finite memory effect in eddy-heat flux dependence on the large-scale flow can explain the origin of the BAM's oscillatory behaviour. We represent the eddy memory effect by a delayed integral kernel that leads to a generalized Langevin equation for the planetary-scale heat equation. Using a mathematical framework for the interactions between planetary- and synoptic-scale motions, we derive a reduced dynamical model of the BAM – a stochastically forced oscillator with a period proportional to the geometric mean between the eddy memory time-scale and the diffusive eddy equilibration time-scale. Our model provides a formal justification for the previously proposed phenomenological model of the BAM and could be used to explicitly diagnose the memory kernel and improve our understanding of transient eddy–mean flow interactions in the atmosphere.
|
|
