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- Camacho Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Assessing Crime History as a Predictor : Exploring Hotspots of Violent and Property Crime in Malmö, Sweden
- 2024
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In: International Criminal Justice Review. - : Sage Publications. - 1057-5677 .- 1556-3855.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Assessing the predictive accuracy of using prior crime, place attributes, ambient population, community structural, and social characteristics, in isolation and combined when forecasting different violent and property crimes.Method: Using multilevel negative binomial regression, crime is forecasted into the subsequent year, in 50-m grid-cells. Incidence rate ratio (IRR), Prediction Accuracy Index (PAI), and Prediction Efficacy Index (PEI*) are interpreted for all combined crime generators and community characteristics. This study is partially a test of a crude version of the Risk Terrain Modeling technique.Results: Where crime has been in the past, the risk for future crime is higher. Where characteristics conducive to crime congregate, the risk for crime is higher. Community structural characteristics and ambient population are important for some crime types. Combining variables increases the accuracy for most crime types, looking at the IRR. Taking the geographical area into account, crime history in combination with both place- and neighborhood characteristics reaches similar accuracy as crime history alone for most crime types and most hotspot cutoffs.Conclusions: Crime history, place-, and neighborhood-level attributes are all important when trying to accurately forecast crime, long-term at the micro-place. Only counting past crimes, however, still does a really good job.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Camacho Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Exploring Violent and Property Crime Geographically : A Comparison of the Accuracy and Precision of Kernel Density Estimation and Simple Count
- 2021
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In: Nordic Journal of Studies in Policing. - : Universitetsforlaget. - 2703-7045. ; 8:1, s. 1-21
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There are multiple geographical crime prediction techniques to use and comparing different prediction techniques therefore becomes important. In the current study we compared the accuracy (Predictive Accuracy Index) and precision (Recapture Rate Index) of simply counting crimes: Simple Count with Kernel Density Estimation in the prediction of where people are reported to commit violent crimes (assault and robbery) and property crimes (residential burglary, property damage, theft, vehicle theft and arson), geographically. These predictions were done using a different number of years into the future and based on a different number of years combined to do the crime prediction, in a large Swedish municipality. The Simple Count technique performed quite well in comparison to simple Kernel Density Estimation no matter what crime was being predicted, making us conclude that it may not be necessary to use the more complex method of Kernel Density Estimation to predict where people are reported to commit crime geographically.
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| 4. |
- Camacho Doyle, Maria, 1982-
(author)
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Forecast: Crime with a chance of feeling unsafe : Examining unsafety (crime and fear of crime) within the context of the surrounding environment
- 2023
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In environmental criminology, various methods exist to forecast unsafety. Some are more complex than others. To determine their practicality, we must compare the accuracy of simple, transparent, and functional methods with slightly more complex methods and those requiring more data collection.The overall aim of the current dissertation was to examine the relationship between crime history, environmental and neighborhood characteristics in forecasting unsafety, both crime and fear of crime, in various geographical locations. Study I compared the predictive accuracy of two methods using historical crime exposure and different crime-time-periods for violent and property crimes. Study II compared the predictive accuracy of prior crime, place attributes, ambient population, and community structural and social characteristics for various crime types. Study III examined the relationship between violent and property crime, as well as community structural and social characteristics, and different types of fear of crime.The findings of the current dissertation suggest that, overall, a one-size-fits-all approach is not effective. Simpler methods are generally comparable to more complex ones in long-term crime forecasting at the micro-level. However, at the neighborhood level, social integration plays a significant role in determining levels of perceived safety and fear of crime.
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| 5. |
- Camacho Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Perceived unsafety and fear of crime : The role of violent and property crime, neighborhood characteristics, and prior perceived unsafety and fear of crime
- 2022
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In: Deviant behavior. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0163-9625 .- 1521-0456. ; 43:11, s. 1347-1365
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Perceived unsafety, fear of crime, and avoidance were studied in relation to different types of crime, crime in different time perspectives, concentrated disadvantage, collective efficacy, urbanity, age structure, and neighborhood disorder. Four data sources were used on a large Swedish city; a community survey from 2012 and 2015 among residents, census data on socio-demographics, police data on reported violent (assault and robbery in the public environment), and property crimes (arson, property damage, theft, vehicle theft, and residential burglary) and geographical information on local bus stops and annual passengers visiting these bus stops. Collective efficacy primarily, but also concentrated disadvantage, was strongly related to perceived unsafety, across 102 neighborhoods. Collective efficacy was strongly related to fear of crime. It was not viable to relate the neighborhood variables with avoidance, however. Fear of specific violent crimes was different from fear of specific property crimes and should for future reference be examined separately. Crime, visible disorder, urbanity, and age structure do not seem as important.
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| 6. |
- Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Feelings of safety in the presence of the police, security guards and police volunteers
- 2013
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Uniformed presences are thought to create feelings of safety in people. However, do different uniformed people contribute to the same amount of safety and are there differences dependent on the situation? The present study examined the association between various types of uniformed presence and people’s feelings of safety through a questionnaire among 352 respondents (18-86 years) (49.1 % women). The questionnaire contained pictures of relatively safe and unsafe situations with or without uniformed presence. The respondents estimated how safe they thought they would feel in these situations with and without two police officers, six police officers, a police car, two security guards, or two police volunteers. The results showed that uniformed presence does not increase feelings of safety in an already relatively safe situation, making patrol unnecessary. In relatively unsafe situations however, all types of uniformed presence increase feelings of safety. Foot patrolling police increased feelings of safety the most. Security guards and police volunteers created approximately the same amount of safety; making police volunteers a cost-effective alternative, although some situation, gender and age differences were found. All types of foot patrol were better than vehicle patrol (with some gender differences), making non-police groups an alternative to vehicle patrol.
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| 7. |
- Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Feelings of safety in the presence of the police, security guards and police volunteers
- 2016
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In: European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research. - : Springer. - 0928-1371 .- 1572-9869. ; 22:1, s. 19-40
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Uniformed presence is commonly thought to create feelings of safety in people.However, do differently uniformed people contribute to an equal amount of safety and arethere situation-dependent differences? The present study examined the association betweenvarious types of uniformed presence and people’s feelings of safety through a questionnaireamong 352 respondents (18–86 years) (49.1 % women). The questionnaire contained picturesof situations perceived as relatively safe and unsafe with or without uniformed presence. Therespondents estimated how safe they thought they would feel in these situations with nouniformed presence, two police officers, six police officers, a police vehicle, two securityguards, or two police volunteers. Results showed that uniformed presence did not increasefeelings of safety in a situation perceived as relatively safe, making patrol unnecessary. Insituations perceived as relatively unsafe however, all types of uniformed presence increasedfeelings of safety. Foot patrolling police contributed to the greatest increase in feelings ofsafety. Security guards and police volunteers created similar amounts of feelings of safetymaking police volunteers a cost-effective alternative. All types of foot patrol were better thanvehicle patrol, making non-police groups an alternative to vehicle patrol. Some situational,gender, and age differences were found.
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| 8. |
- Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Feelings of safety in the presence of the police, security guards and police volunteers
- 2014
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Uniformed presences are thought to create feelings of safety in people. However, do different uniformed people contribute to the same amount of safety and are there differences dependent on the situation? The present study examined the association between various types of uniformed presence and people’s feelings of safety through a questionnaire among 352 respondents (18-86 years) (49.1 % women). The questionnaire contained pictures of relatively safe and unsafe situations with or without uniformed presence. The respondents estimated how safe they thought they would feel in these situations with and without two police officers, six police officers, a police car, two security guards, or two police volunteers. The results showed that uniformed presence does not increase feelings of safety in an already relatively safe situation, making patrol unnecessary. In relatively unsafe situations however, all types of uniformed presence increase feelings of safety. Foot patrolling police increased feelings of safety the most. Security guards and police volunteers created approximately the same amount of safety; making police volunteers a cost-effective alternative, although some situation, gender and age differences were found. All types of foot patrol were better than vehicle patrol (with some gender differences), making non-police groups an alternative to vehicle patrol.
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| 10. |
- Doyle, Maria, 1982-, et al.
(author)
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Hur polis och universitet effektivt kan samverka
- 2015
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In: The Past, the Present and the Future of Police Research. - Växjö : Linnéuniversitetet, Polisutbildningen. ; , s. 183-200
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)
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