| 1. |
- Assis, Talita Oliveira, et al.
(author)
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CO2emissions from forest degradation in Brazilian Amazon
- 2020
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:10
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Forest degradation is widespread around the world, due to multiple factors such as unsustainable logging, agriculture, invasive species, fire, fuelwood gathering, and livestock grazing. In the Brazilian Amazon forest degradation from August 2006 to July 2016 reached 1,1 869 800 ha. The processes of forest degradation are still poorly understood, being a missing component in anthropogenic CO2 emission estimates in tropical forests. In this work, we analyzed temporal trajectories of forest degradation from August 2006 to July 2016 in the Brazilian Amazon and assessed their impact on the regional carbon balance. We combined the degradation process with deforestation-related processes (clear-cut deforestation and secondary vegetation dynamics), using the spatially-explicit INPE-EM carbon emission model. The trajectory analysis showed that 13% of the degraded area ended up being cleared and converted in the period and 61% of the total degraded area experienced only one event of degradation throughout the whole period. Net emissions added up to 5.4 GtCO2, considering the emissions from forest degradation and deforestation, absorption from degraded forest recovery, and secondary vegetation dynamics. The results show an increase in the contribution of forest degradation to net emissions towards the end of the period, related to the decrease in clear-cut deforestation rates, decoupled from the forest degradation rates. The analysis also indicates that the regeneration of degraded forests absorbed 1.8 GtCO2 from August 2006 and July 2016—a component typically overlooked in the regional carbon balance.
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| 2. |
- Paz Duran, América, et al.
(author)
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Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life : creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures
- 2023
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In: Sustainability Science. - 1862-4065 .- 1862-4057.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.
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| 3. |
- Silva Bezerra, Francisco Gilney, et al.
(author)
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Spatio-temporal analysis of dynamics and future scenarios of anthropic pressure on biomes in Brazil
- 2022
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In: Ecological Indicators. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-160X .- 1872-7034. ; 137
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Anthropogenic transformations, which have become intensified by land use and land cover changes and industrialization, have contributed to increased anthropogenic pressure on biodiversity. These disturbances contribute toward fragmentating habitats at different scales and putting species at risk, in addition to compromising the main biogeochemical cycles. To better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of anthropogenic pressure on Brazilian biomes, this study sought to develop a composite index to identify and analyze the degree and distribution of anthropogenic-based pressure on biodiversity, and identify internally homogeneous and heterogeneous regions regarding the dynamics of this pressure in different scenarios. To that end, we carried out an analysis of the impact of select anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we analyzed future scenarios involving land use and land cover changes in line with the global structure Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), according to the narratives SSP1/RCP 1.9, SSP2/ RCP 4.5 and SSP3/RCP 7.0. We used cluster and spatial analyses to determine the spatial dynamics of the index and, consequently, the regions most susceptible to anthropogenic pressure. The results demonstrate intensified pressure on biodiversity in areas that have already been subject to a considerable degree of disturbances, especially the Cerrado, Caatinga, and Atlantic Forest biomes. In all scenarios, the region with the highest average pressure index, i.e., Region 4, which has an average pressure index of 0.57, corresponds to 30% of Brazilian territory. This method made it possible to determine the level of pressure in each region and, subsequently, identify the regions that have been most affected by human actions in an effort to guide priority actions and local policies. However, it should be noted that this approach should be complemented with additional information, such as soil erosion, field recognition, and socioeconomic information.
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| 4. |
- Carvalho, Raquel, et al.
(author)
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Diversity of cattle raising systems and its effects over forest regrowth in a core region of cattle production in the Brazilian Amazon
- 2020
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In: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Roughly 60% of all deforested lands in the Brazilian Amazon are covered with pastures, putting cattle raising in evidence as a major driver of deforestation and also of forests' regrowth. Still, the role of cattle raising diversity in the landscape dynamics of this region remains poorly understood. To contribute to this discussion, we combined data from semi-structured interviews and quantitative spatially explicit methods to characterize and spatialize cattle raising systems and explore the effects of this diversity over secondary vegetation between 2004 and 2014 in Para, a hotspot of deforestation and core region of cattle production. We quantified the use of different pasture management strategies to classify small- and large-scale operations into systems with high or low impact against pastures' degradation. High-impact systems were mapped in regions with consolidated infrastructure and high accumulated deforestation, where they expanded. On the contrary, low-impact systems were more widespread and found near forest frontiers, shrinking over time. High-impact systems had less secondary vegetation, while under low-impact systems, as a result of strategies with little or no effect against degradation, the historical pattern of concentration of this cover prevailed. Better infrastructure and access to markets as well as higher accumulated deforestation are underlying conditions related to the emergence of intensification and, as it is still unclear whether intensification is indeed capable of sparing land, the expansion of intensive cattle raising systems has the potential to configure landscapes with reduced forested areas, either primary or secondary.
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| 5. |
- Collste, David, 1988-
(author)
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The Indivisible 2030 Agenda : Systems analysis for sustainability
- 2021
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In 2015 the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda with 17 global sustainable development goals (SDGs) to shift the world onto a sustainable path. By referring to the SDGs as indivisible, the Agenda emphasises the interdependence of social and ecological concerns. But what does it mean that the goals are interdependent and how is indivisibility to be handled in research and implementation?In this dissertation, I investigate how models and participatory methods grounded in systems thinking can be used to facilitate the understanding and realisation of the 2030 Agenda. The dissertation explores and examines: (a) how system dynamics models can be used to represent integrated goals and their synergies at multiple levels, (b) how human well-being can be more inclusively integrated into systems models, and (c) how systems approaches can help to bridge local aspirations to global sustainability goals, incorporating multiple values and worldviews in the operationalisation of the Agenda.
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| 6. |
- Collste, David, et al.
(author)
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Three Horizons for the Sustainable Development Goals : A Cross-scale Participatory Approach for Sustainability Transformations
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- One of the current challenges of human society lies in navigating the safe operating space defined by the planetary boundaries while reaching the aspirational Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This is not a challenge that can be tackled everywhere in the same way. It is thus vital to ground the pursuit of the SDGs in locally prevalent worldviews and reflect specific contexts in developing coherent pathways. In addressing the need to couple global concerns with local aspirations and conditions, this paper introduces a stakeholder-based approach for visioning and exploring sustainable development pathways to meet the SDGs, inclusive of marginalized voices and facilitating context-sensitive exploration of alternative futures. The approach builds on but departs from the Three Horizons framework, a participatory approach developed for groups to think about transformative change. We present the benefits and challenges of the adapted approach in relation to an illustrative case study, the 2018 African Dialogue on The World In 2050, deliberating future pathways for agriculture and food systems in Africa. The key contribution of the paper is twofold. First, we detail the premises and steps of the Three Horizons for the SDGs (3H4SDG) approach. Second, we summarize the results of a pilot application of the approach - four alternative pathways for how food systems and agriculture can contribute to meeting the SDGs in Sub-Saharan Africa, integrated with the worldviews entangled in the narratives of the participating stakeholders. We conclude that participatory approaches grounded in systems thinking represent a promising way to link local aspirations with global goals.
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| 7. |
- de Barros Viana Hissa, Leticia, et al.
(author)
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Regrowing forests contribution to law compliance and carbon storage in private properties of the Brazilian Amazon
- 2019
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In: Land use policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-8377 .- 1873-5754. ; 88
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The viability of the climate pledges made by Brazil at the COP21 in Paris, 2015, heavily depends on the success of the country policies related to forest governance. Particularly, there are high expectations that the enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code (BFC) will drive large-scale forest recovery and carbon mitigation. In this study, we quantified the potential role that ongoing forest regeneration may play in offsetting deficits from private properties with less vegetation cover than determined by the BFC, considering different law implementation settings. Focusing on the Amazon Biome, we overlaid property level data from a mandatory registry ( approximate to 250,000 properties) onto land cover maps to quantify on-site forest deficit offsets by ongoing forest recovery. Similarly, we estimated the share of regrowing forests in private properties potentially eligible for offsite deficit compensation (i.e. via market-based forest certificates trade). Regrowing forests could reduce, on-site, 3.2 Mho of forests deficits, decreasing non-compliance from private properties by 35%. Likewise, forest certificates availability increased by 3.4 Mha when we included regrowing forests in the calculations. This means an increase in the forest certificate offer-demand ratio from 0.9 to 2.0. On the one hand, trading certificates issued from recovering forests may represent a low-cost strategy for compliance with the BFC, a pathway for achieving restoration targets, and an additional source of income for landholders. To meet this potential, it is necessary to better conceptualize second-growth forests, advancing the poor definitions presented by the BFC, and offer an operational basis for their protection. On the other hand, including regrowing forests' certificates in compensation schemes may further restrain the potential of the trading mechanism for conservation of unprotected old-growth forests and lead to positive net carbon emissions. We highlight that the BFC implementation must be carefully regulated to maximize synergies between compliance and forest resources conservation and enhancement.
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| 8. |
- Silva Von Randow, Rita Cassia, et al.
(author)
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Response of the river discharge in the Tocantins River Basin, Brazil, to environmental changes and the associated effects on the energy potential
- 2019
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In: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19:1, s. 193-204
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological regime worldwide, and land use and land cover change may alter the effects of the former in some cases. Secondary growth in deforested and abandoned areas is one of the main consequences of land use and cover changes in Amazonia. Among land uses, the effects of the secondary growth in water availability in large scale basins are not well understood. This work analyzes the potential effects of secondary growth under climate and land use change on water availability and hydropower in the Tocantins basin, in the Legal Amazon region of Brazil, using the MHD-INPE hydrological model driven by different climate scenarios and two future socioeconomic-based potential land use scenarios. The model projects decrease on discharge under climate change scenarios, which further cause the simulated hydropower energy potential to decrease significantly. When only deforestation scenarios are included, the effects of climate change are weakened, but when secondary growth is also considered, the effects of climate change are enhanced. Results suggest that different aspects of environmental change, such as secondary growth, may affect water production and the sectors depending on it.
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