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| 2. |
- Dahmani, Abdennasser, et al.
(author)
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Assessing the Efficacy of Improved Learning in Hourly Global Irradiance Prediction
- 2023
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In: Computers, Materials and Continua. - : Tech Science Press. - 1546-2218 .- 1546-2226. ; 77:2, s. 2579-2594
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Increasing global energy consumption has become an urgent problem as natural energy sources such as oil, gas, and uranium are rapidly running out. Research into renewable energy sources such as solar energy is being pursued to counter this. Solar energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources, as it has the potential to meet the world’s energy needs indefinitely. This study aims to develop and evaluate artificial intelligence (AI) models for predicting hourly global irradiation. The hyperparameters were optimized using the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton training algorithm and STATISTICA software. Data from two stations in Algeria with different climatic zones were used to develop the model. Various error measurements were used to determine the accuracy of the prediction models, including the correlation coefficient, the mean absolute error, and the root mean square error (RMSE). The optimal support vector machine (SVM) model showed exceptional efficiency during the training phase, with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.99) and a low mean absolute error (MAE = 26.5741 Wh/m2), as well as an RMSE of 38.7045 Wh/m² across all phases. Overall, this study highlights the importance of accurate prediction models in the renewable energy, which can contribute to better energy management and planning.
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| 3. |
- Djaafari, Abdallah, et al.
(author)
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Hourly predictions of direct normal irradiation using an innovative hybrid LSTM model for concentrating solar power projects in hyper-arid regions
- 2022
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In: Energy Reports. - : Elsevier. - 2352-4847. ; 8, s. 15548-15562
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although solar energy harnessing capacity varies considerably based on the employed solar energy technology and the meteorological conditions, accurate direct normal irradiation (DNI) prediction remains crucial for better planning and management of concentrating solar power systems. This work develops hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for assessing hourly DNI using meteorological datasets that include relative humidity, air temperature, and global solar irradiation. The study proposes a unique hybrid model, combining a balance-dynamic sine–cosine (BDSCA) algorithm with an LSTM predictor. Combining optimizers and predictors, such hybrid models are rarely developed to estimate DNI, especially in smaller prediction intervals. Therefore, various commonly adopted algorithms in relevant studies have been considered references for evaluating the new hybrid algorithm. The results show that the relative errors of the proposed models do not exceed 2.07%, with a minimum correlation coefficient of 0.99. In addition, the dimensionality of inputs was reduced from four variables to the two most cost-effective variables in DNI prediction. Therefore, these suggested models are reliable for estimating DNI in the arid desert areas of Algeria and other locations with similar climatic features.
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| 4. |
- El-Kenawy, El-Sayed M., et al.
(author)
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Hybrid Ensemble-Learning Approach for Renewable Energy Resources Evaluation in Algeria
- 2022
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In: Computers, Materials and Continua. - : Tech Science Press. - 1546-2218 .- 1546-2226. ; 71:3, s. 5837-5854
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In order to achieve a highly accurate estimation of solar energy resource potential, a novel hybrid ensemble-learning approach, hybridizing Advanced Squirrel-Search Optimization Algorithm (ASSOA) and support vector regression, is utilized to estimate the hourly tilted solar irradiation for selected arid regions in Algeria. Long-term measured meteorological data, including mean-air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, alongside global horizontal irradiation and extra-terrestrial horizontal irradiance, were obtained for the two cities of Tamanrasset-and-Adrar for two years. Five computational algorithms were considered and analyzed for the suitability of estimation. Further two new algorithms, namely Average Ensemble and Ensemble using support vector regression were developed using the hybridization approach. The accuracy of the developed models was analyzed in terms of five statistical error metrics, as well as the Wilcoxon rank-sum and ANOVA test. Among the previously selected algorithms, K Neighbors Regressor and support vector regression exhibited good performances. However, the newly proposed ensemble algorithms exhibited even better performance. The proposed model showed relative root mean square errors lower than 1.448% and correlation coefficients higher than 0.999. This was further verified by benchmarking the new ensemble against several popular swarm intelligence algorithms. It is concluded that the proposed algorithms are far superior to the commonly adopted ones.
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| 5. |
- El-kenawy, El-Sayed M., et al.
(author)
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Sunshine duration measurements and predictions in Saharan Algeria region : an improved ensemble learning approach
- 2022
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In: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology. - : Springer. - 0177-798X .- 1434-4483. ; 147:3-4, s. 1015-1031
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sunshine duration is an important atmospheric indicator used in many agricultural, architectural, and solar energy applications (photovoltaics, thermal systems, and passive building design). Hence, it should be estimated accurately for areas with low-quality data or unavailable precise measurements. This paper aimed to obtain a sunshine duration measurement database in Algeria’s south region and also to study the applicability of computational models to predict them. This work develops ensemble learning models for assessing daily sunshine duration with meteorological datasets that include daily mean relative humidity, daily mean air temperature, daily maximum air temperature, daily minimum air temperature, and daily temperature range as input. The study proposes a unique hybrid model, combining grey wolf and stochastic fractal search (GWO-SFS) optimization algorithms with the random forest regressor ensemble. A pre-feature selection process improved the newly suggested model. Various commonly adopted algorithms in relevant studies have been considered as references for evaluating the new hybrid algorithm. The accuracy of models was examined as a function of some frequently used statistical pointers, as well as the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Besides, the models were evaluated according to the several input combinations. The numerical experiments show that the proposed optimization ensemble with feature preprocessing outperforms stand-alone models in terms of prediction accuracy and robustness, where relative root mean square errors are reduced by over 20% for all considered locations. In addition, all correlation coefficients are higher than 0.999. Moreover, the proposed model, with RMSEs lower than 0.4884 hours, shows significantly superior performances compared to previously proposed models in the literature.
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| 6. |
- Elbeltagi, Ahmed, et al.
(author)
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Optimizing hyperparameters of deep hybrid learning for rainfall prediction: a case study of a Mediterranean basin
- 2022
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In: Arabian Journal of Geosciences. - : Springer. - 1866-7511 .- 1866-7538. ; 15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Predicting rainfall amount is essential in water resources planning and for managing structures, especially those against floods and long-term drought establishment. Machine learning techniques can produce good results using a minimum dataset requirement, making it a leader among the prediction algorithms. This work develops a hybrid learning model for monthly rainfall prediction at four geographical locations representing Mediterranean basins in Northern Algeria and desert areas in Egypt. The study proposes an adaptive dynamic-based hyperparameter optimization algorithm to improve the accuracy of hybrid deep learning models. The proposed model provided a good fit, based on the obtained Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE ≈ 0.90) with a high correlation coefficient of R ≈ 0.96, providing improvements of up to 62% in the RMSE. The proposed method proved to be an encouraging and promising tool to simulate water cycle components for better water resources management and protection.
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| 7. |
- Jamei, Mehdi, et al.
(author)
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Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Radiation in Semi-Arid Regions
- 2023
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In: Computers, Materials and Continua. - : Tech Science Press. - 1546-2218 .- 1546-2226. ; 74:1, s. 1625-1640
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Solar energy represents one of the most important renewable energy sources contributing to the energy transition process. Considering that the observation of daily global solar radiation (GSR) is not affordable in some parts of the globe, there is an imperative need to develop alternative ways to predict it. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of different hybrid data-driven techniques in predicting daily GSR in semi-arid regions, such as the majority of Spanish territory. Here, four ensemble-based hybrid models were developed by hybridizing Additive Regression (AR) with Random Forest (RF), Locally Weighted Linear Regression (LWLR), Random Subspace (RS), and M5P. The base algorithms of the developed models are scarcely applied in previous studies to predict solar radiation. The testing phase outcomes demonstrated that the AR-RF models outperform all other hybrid models. The provided models were validated by statistical metrics, such as the correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results proved that Scenario #6, utilizing extraterrestrial solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, and mean, maximum, and minimum ambient air temperatures as the model inputs, leads to the most accurate predictions among all scenarios (R = 0.968–0.988 and RMSE = 1.274–1.403 MJ/m2⋅d). Also, Scenario #3 stood in the next rank of accuracy for predicting the solar radiation in both validating stations. The AD-RF model was the best predictive, followed by AD-RS and AD-LWLR. Hence, this study recommends new effective methods to predict GSR in semi-arid regions.
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